2014 Preakness Preview
posted May 14 2014, 08:24PM
story by Pat Infante
posted in Horse Racing, Betting

Preview of the 2014 Preakness Stakes

Find me on Twitter @PInfante97

 

  Dynamic Impact won the Grade 3 Illinois Derby back on April 19th. He has 2 wins in 6 career races and two 2nds. He is making quite a jump in class to the Preakness. I think its really a tall order to ask him to run with this field, but I don't think him hitting the backside of the tri or super is impossible.

General a Rod finished 11th in the Kentucky Derby but at this point he probably is what he is - a solid horse who is probably a step below the top notch talent of this 3 year old crop.

California Chrome did exactly what I thought he would do in the Derby. Rate right behind the pace then explode with push button acceleration right at the top of the stretch. I would expect nothing but the same from him this time around.

 Ring Weekend is a horse that likes running up front. He was the winner of the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby back on March 8th. Oddly instead of entering one of the big 6 prep races, he entered the Calder Derby and ended up finishing second by 9 ¾ lengths to much, what looked like, inferior competition.

 Bayern is another front running horse, he finished 3rd in the Arkansas Derby behind Danza and Ride On Curlin. With 2 wins in 4 career races, he is a good front running horse. However, his performance in the Arkansas Derby suggest he may be best at a mile distance. His most impressive win was a 15 length romp back on February 13th.

Ria Antonia is a filly being entered to run with the boys. She finished 6th in the Kentucky Oaks. I see no reason why the owners would enter her in this race. Lets all just hope she makes it out of this race healthy. Very poor and selfish decision by her owner. Its such an odd and poor decision that you got to wonder if he knows something we don't.

 Kid Cruz is a horse I like a lot. If you're looking for a sleeper or an upset pick, this might be your horse. He is the lone closer in the field loaded with a lot of front running speed horses. He has 3 wins in 6 starts and is coming off 2 wins in a row. In both of those 2 wins he closed on a field that ran a very slow pace, making those 2 wins even more impressive. Basic rule of thumb is if you're a closer type of horse you are rooting for a fast pace to tire out the horses in front of the pack. Obviously if you are rooting for a front runner you want a slower pace so they have more gas left in that tank coming down the stretch.

Social Inclusion is a horse that really had a great buzz about him 2 months ago. He did not race until February and this will only be his fourth start. The only reason he was not in the Derby was because he did not have enough points to get in due to his late start of the season. He was a beaten favorite in the Wood Memorial finishing 3rd behind Wicked Strong and Samraat. He is another front runner who will be right out to the front from the moment the gate opens. This is California Chromes biggest threat in this race. He had a bullet workout earlier in the week of 4 furlongs in :47 flat. He’s fresh and ready to run. He has the talent to win this race. Make no mistake about it, Social Inclusion is a heavyweight and he comes to Baltimore ready to rumble.

Pablo Del Monte is a horse that I think will really struggle with the distance. He has faded down the stretch in any race he has ever run 1 mile or longer. For me, this is an easy toss.

 Ride On Curlin finished 7th beaten by 6 ¾ lengths in the Kentucky Derby. He had a terrible trip in the Derby. At one point he was 9 lengths out wide. As I mentioned in my derby preview, I don't know what it is with this horse but he always seems prone to a troubled trip.

 

 

Betting Strategy

 

Betting the Preakness is 40% handicapping and 60% math. The favorite has won this race 7 times since 2000. You are never going to get the type of payouts on this race that you see in the Derby. None the less, there is still money to be made as long as you temper your expectations. If you hit on the Derby keep most of that money in your pocket and now that you're playing with house money lets try to cash a few tickets.

 

Below is a chart of the payouts of past Preakness Races. The races highlighted were won by the favorite.

 


Now lets take a look at the avg payouts on races won by the favorite because again I will be singling California Chrome for the most part. He has shown me nothing to make me think I should go against him and again, keep in mind we are playing with house money and keeping most of those derby profits in our pocket.

The first step is handicapping the math and figuring out what types of bets to make. In this case a WIN bet makes no sense, he is going to go off less than even money. The exacta could pay as low as 25 bucks, which is a far cry from the $340 it paid at the Derby. So California Chrome and ALL is not a smart bet here. Although we will play the exacta, we arent going to be able to cover the whole field. The avg tri on Preakness’ won by the favorite is hardly more than the exacta we just hit on the derby. So we will make a few cheap tri bets. The money here however seems to be made on the superfecta and the pick 4. Both incredibly hard bets to hit.

Incarcerated Bob's 3 Picks (Use these horses how you see fit)

#7 Horse - Kid Cruz (20-1 Odds)

#1 Horse - Dynamic Impact (12-1 Odds)

#3 Horse - California Chrome (3-5 Odds)

 

Pat's Bets

Exacta - 3 California Chrome/ 7 Kid Cruz

Tri Box - 3 California Chrome, 8 Social Inclusion, 7 Kid Cruz every $1 will cost you $6

Tri - 3 California Chrome W/ 8 Social Inclusion, 7 Kid Cruz W/ ALL $1 bet will cost $16

Superfecta - 3 California Chrome W/ 8 Social Inclusion, 7 Kid Cruz W/ 8 Social Inclusion, 7 Kid Cruz, 5 Bayern, 10 Ride On Curlin W/ 8 Social Inclusion, 7 Kid Cruz, 5 Bayern, 10 Ride On Curlin, 2 General A Rod, 1 Dynamic Impact, 6 Ria Antonia - $1 bet will cost you $30

 

Race 1 4-6-8 Exacta Box

Race 2 5-7-10 Tri Box / $1 Pick 3 5-7-10 w/ 3-14-6 w/ 7 = Bet cost $9

Race 3 6-14 Exacta Box / 3 WIN - Longshot Play

Race 4 $1 Pick 3  7 w/ 2 w/ 7-1-12-3 = Bet Cost $4

Race 5 2 w/ ALL Exacta

Race 6 .10 Super Box 7-1-12-3 = Bet Cost $2.40

Race 7 8 WIN / Exacta 9 w/ 8

Race 8 1-3-5 Exacta Box

 

Here is where we start singling California Chrome (although I must say this recent news about this blister in his throat has me a little worried)

 

Race 9 .50 Pick 4 7-9-8-3 w/ 2-6-10-11 w/ 1-3-6-7 w/ 3 = Bet cost $32

Race 10 $1 Pick 3 2-4-6-10-11 w/ 1-3-6-7 w/ 3 = Bet cost $20

Race 11 $3 Daily Double 1-3-6-7-8 w/ 3 = Bet cost $15

             $1 Daily Double 2-4-5-9-10 w/ 3 = Best cost $5

 

Find me on Twitter @PInfante97

Live by the Chrome, Die by the Chrome - Preakness 2014

 

- Pat Infante

 

Pat Infante
I am from the Jersey Shore. Not the TV show, the actual geographical area. I have been in the car business for over 13 years. Being in the car busines...



Recent IBN Stories