2015 Preakness Preview
posted May 14 2015, 09:10AM
story by Pat Infante
posted in Horse Racing, Betting

Preview of the 140th Running Of The Preakness Stakes

Follow me on twitter @PInfante97

 

 

  American Pharoah, the Kentucky Derby Champion comes to Pimlico at the 4-5 favorite. Drawing the rail is not ideal for him but there is a reason there is only 8 horses in this race... Because no one really wants to race him. 

 Dortmund comes to Baltimore off his first defeat in his 3rd place finish in the Derby. I don't think there is that much of a gap between him and American Pharoah and I wouldn't be shocked if he came back to win this race. I do think they need to sit him back off the pace so he has a target to run at. They tried to gate to wire the field in Kentucky but that is a running style that hardly wins in the Kentucky Derby.

 Mr. Z gets the go in the Preakness for D. Wayne Lucas which I do find kind of odd considering he was a non factor in the Kentucky Derby finishing 13th. It is worth noting he was neck and neck at the finish of the December 20th Los Alimitos Futurity racing with Dortmund and Firing Line. Has seemed to regress since. 

 Danzig Moon ran a very solid 5th in Louisville and seems to get better each time out. If you are looking to add value to some of your exotic tickets he could be a play.  

 Tale Of Verve is a horse with no chance, what-so-ever, at all.... None

 Bodhisattva is the local horse and winner of the local Preakness prep named the Federico Tesio Stakes ran on April 18th. I don't think he is much of a threat.

 Divining Rod is the winner of the Coolmore Lexington Stakes. Out of all the new shooters he has the best chance to hit the board. He is owned by the same owners of Barbaro who was the 2006 Kentucky Derby champion, shattered his leg in the Preakness, and was eventually euthanized on January 29th 2007. Barbaro may have been the one to break the Triple Crown draught. His injury may be one of the saddest stories in the history of the sport. Every Preakness I think what could of been. May he rest in peace

 Firing Line draws the perfect post positon on the outside giving him a lot of options. I would not be totally shocked if he won this race. It is worth noting that it did look like he was tiring at the end of the Kentucky Derby. He is a very good horse.

 

Betting Strategy 

Well if your looking for the huge payday this is not the race for you id sit back and just watch. If you are looking to bet the Preakness for the sake of betting the Preakness then I would box American Pharoah, Dortmund, and Firing Line and pound it. I think this plays out a lot like 2007 where there are just 3 horses better then the rest of the class and we get the same Tri as the Derby in the Preakness. You may also want to look at betting the pick 3 and pick 4 bets leading into this race. 

 

 

Use these horses how you see fit

Race 1 - I like the 1a Shoot Craps, his workout have been strong and I think the favorite is beatable. ALso like the 5 Sunshine life.

Race 2 - The favorite is the 3 Stolen Love and looks to be strong in this one. I also think the 1 Q's Life has a chance since it really is the only other horse in the field who can run with the 3.

Race 3 - I like the 2 Relentless Ride  who is the 9-2 favorite but I also like the 4 Svindahl who did improve last time out stretching to teh 1 1/16 distance of this race. The 6 Mack the Knife is also in play has improved his Beyer in each of his last 3 starts.

Race 4 - Im going to try to beat the favorite and I like 3 horses in theis race. The 3 Bluegrass Singer has run in some good races vs good competition and has put up good Beyers. The 4 Lysander The Greek ships to the US for his first start in North America, I like him based on the fact that you don't just ship a horse across the ocean if you don't think you can win. I like the 6 Woodwin W since he is undefeated in 3 starts although he is stepping up in competition.

Race 5 - The favorite in the race 4 Happy My Way looks pretty strong. If I want to try to beat him Im going to use 2 Coup de Grace, 3 Picko's Pride, 4 Happy My Way or for a longshot the 8 Service For Ten. Probably a better race to bet in a multi race wager. 

Race 6 - Not a big fan of this race as a whole. Alot of horses that are very simalar. Ill play the 7 Lulu Island,  since he ran a 77 beyer and won over this track last time out, the 10 Pret Say Eyealso won his last race and it was over this track as well. The 13 Smart N Smoking has run some good races for a 8-1 morning line. 

Race 7 - I like the 1 Fame and Power in this race. He is the lone front runner of this race and if he breaks good will have a nice inside trip around. In multi-race wagers im going to back him up with 4 Noteworthy Peach, 5 Bold Conquest, and 6 Donworth.

Race 8 - I like a couple of 10-1 shots 11 Causeworthy has finished in the money in his last 6 and won 2 of his last 3, 9 Sir Sidney has ran a couple of good races in his past few races and suffered some bad trips he was a beaten heavy favorite last time out, ill take the 10-1 value this time. Ill also back that up with the 12 Other Creek.

Race 9 - There are a bunch of horses I like in this one making it a good race to bet in multi race wagers. 3 Emotional Kitten, 4 Cat's Claw, 7 Hard Not to Like, 9 Token of Love, and 11 Sistas Stroll are all in play.

Race 10 - I find the 5 Victory Is Sweet is a pretty beatable favorite in this one. With only 2 career starts and a huge improvement in his last race, I see him coming back down to earth in this one. The horses I like in this one are the 1 Blame Jim, 7 Gimme Da Lute, 9 Holy Boss who are all run good Beyer numbers compared to teh rest of the group and my longshot play here is the 11 W V Jetsetter.

Race 11 - This is another  race where I think any of a number of horses can win and ill be playing in my pick 3 and pick 4 tickets leading up to the Preakness. Horses I like are 2 Ageless, 3 Paddle Board, 4 Joya Real, 5 Shrining Violet, 6 Jewel of a Cat, and 9 Aquinnah. Not much seperates any of these horses. 

Race 12 - This is another race that im looking to use a bunch of horses in my pick3 and pick 4 tickets. I think the favorite 13 War Correspondent is vulnerable here. Although I will include him in my tickets. Other horses I will fill my ticket with are 4 Aripeka, 10 Manchurian High, 11 Up With the Birds, 12 Long On Value, and 14 Talk Show Man

 

I will be in Baltimore for the Preakness and unable to update changes if they occur. Good luck to all. Pick 3 and Pick 4's leading into the Preakness are your best bet at making money on the Preakness. Tough betters race...

Follow me on twitter @PInfante97

Pat Infante
I am from the Jersey Shore. Not the TV show, the actual geographical area. I have been in the car business for over 13 years. Being in the car busines...





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