NFL : IBN Picks - Week 15
posted Dec 20 2015, 08:51AM
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Picks, Week 15 Edition : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks - Picks / Analysis

NFL Football - Sunday Edition

*2015 NFL Season Record: 73-64-3 +$5,737

*2014 NFL Season + Playoffs Record: 98-86-6 +$15,568

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob

Co Write-Up via David Loret (@doc_Spoon on Twitter)

 

Carolina Panthers
@ New York Giants

Vegas Lines

Line : CAR -4.5 (-102)

Total : O/U 46 (-105/-105)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

The New York Giants played spoiler to the last NFL team to complete a perfect regular season, and they’ll try Sunday to prevent the visiting Carolina Panthers from joining that club. The Giants look to bolster their hopes of winning the NFC East title and hand the Panthers their first regular-season loss in more than a year. The Panthers rattled off four straight wins to cap the 2014 regular season and sneak into the playoffs, and they’re three wins from joining the 1972 Miami Dolphins (14-0) and 2007 New England Patriots (16-0) as the only teams to go undefeated. The Giants knocked some of the luster off the Patriots’ perfect regular season by beating them in the Super Bowl – a fact that isn’t lost on the Panthers. “It does go back to the fact that it’s really not about going undefeated, it’s about winning the Super Bowl,” Panthers coach Ron Rivera told reporters. “That’s the thing that you have to really focus on, is really what is the goal.” Carolina already has clinched the NFC South title and a first-round bye and can lock up the conference’s top seed with a win and an Arizona loss at Philadelphia on Sunday night, while New York is tied with Washington and Philadelphia atop the NFC East.

If Carolina is going to remain unbeaten, it will have to do so without workhorse running back Jonathan Stewart (989 yards, six touchdowns), who injured his foot in last week’s 38-0 win over Atlanta. That’s a big blow to the league’s No. 2 rushing offense, which will count on Fozzy Whittaker and Cameron Artis-Payne to complement quarterback Cam Newton. It might not matter if the Panthers’ defense is as dominant as it was last week, when it held the Falcons to 230 total yards and forced four turnovers. New York snapped a three-game skid with a 31-24 win at Miami on Monday night, as Eli Manning had his best game of the season with 337 yards on 27-of-31 passing and four touchdowns. The Giants likely will need another big game from Manning with their stagnant ground game facing one of the league’s top run defenses. Last week also marked a strong rebound for the league’s worst pass defense, as the Giants held Miami to 235 yards through the air – the second-lowest total against them this season.

Key Trends

  • Over is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games following a straight up win of more than 14 points.
  • Over is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 games on fieldturf.
  • Under is 4-0 in Giants last 4 games in Week 15.
  • Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New York.

 

Extra Points

1. Newton has five career games with at least three passing touchdowns and one rushing score, one shy of the NFL record shared by Steve Young and Jack Kemp.

2. The Panthers lead the NFL in interceptions (21) and takeaways (33) and have forced multiple turnovers in nine games this season.

3. Giants WR Odell Beckham Jr. has topped 100 yards receiving in six straight games, totaling 43 receptions for 796 yards and eight touchdowns over that span.

 

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Denver Broncos

@ Pittsburgh Steelers

Vegas Lines

Line : PIT -6.5 (+108)

Total : O/U 45 (-109/-101)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

The Pittsburgh Steelers look to continue their familiar December push toward the playoffs on Sunday when they host the Denver Broncos. Pittsburgh recorded its fourth win in five outings last week and moved within two games of first-place Cincinnati with a 33-20 victory over the Bengals. "We just know it's that time of year," Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger told reporters. "It's crunch time and you've got to get hot at the right time." The three-time Pro Bowler threw for 282 yards last week, but will test his mettle against the Broncos' top-ranked passing defense. Like Roethlisberger, Denver's Brock Osweiler didn't find the end zone last week despite throwing for a career-high 308 yards in a 15-12 loss to Oakland. The setback dropped the AFC West-leading Broncos into a tie with Cincinnati for second place, although the latter holds the tiebreaker to claim temporary ownership of the first-round bye.

Emmanuel Sanders will return to Heinz Field a little over one year removed after calling Peyton Manning a "far better leader" than Roethlisberger. "What I said was what everybody in the National Football League knows and when it comes to Peyton Manning, the guy is the ultimate leader," Sanders said on Wednesday. "I've got nothing but love for Ben. It was no shot at Ben." Demaryius Thomas missed Thursday's practice, but the team officially listed the wideout's absence as not injury related. Antonio Brown has been right in the thick of the surge by Pittsburgh, which saw its high-powered offense average 494 yards and 35.2 points in its last five games. The speedy wideout has reeled in 48 receptions for 679 yards and four scores in that stretch and joins Martavis Bryant and Markus Wheaton in an embarrassment of riches for Roethlisberger. The trio has combined for 16 touchdowns, but will face a tough task against Denver's Aqib Talib, Chris Harris Jr. and Bradley Roby.

 

Key Trends

  • Broncos are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Broncos are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in Broncos last 6 games on grass.
  • Under is 6-0-1 in Steelers last 7 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Steelers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Steelers are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games in December.
  • Over is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.
  • Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
  • Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

 

Extra Points

1. Pittsburgh veteran RB DeAngelo Williams is expected to play despite missing Thursday's practice due to illness.

2. Denver will vie for its franchise-best seventh road win of the season on Sunday.

3. The Steelers have won nine straight games in December.

 

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Arizona Cardinals

@ Philadelphia Eagles

Vegas Lines

Line : ARI -4 (-102)

Total : O/U 51 (-105/-105)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

After clinching a playoff berth last week, the Arizona Cardinals can put the finishing touches on securing the NFC West title and potentially a first-round bye on Sunday night when they visit the Philadelphia Eagles. A seven-game winning streak has fueled the ascent of Arizona, which can claim its first division title in six years with either a win on Sunday or if second-place Seattle stumbles versus Cleveland. "Somebody texted me, 'Hey, you punched your ticket,'" Cardinals coach Bruce Arians told reporters. "I said, 'Yeah, we're trying to upgrade to first class.'" Carson Palmer resides in the cockpit of the NFL's top-ranked offense as the MVP candidate tossed a pair of scoring strikes to increase his season total to a franchise-best 31 in a 23-20 victory over Minnesota last week. Philadelphia has won two in a row to place itself in a three-way tie atop the less-than-impressive NFC East. "To start the year the way we did and kind of dig ourselves in a hole, it was unlikely that we would be in this position this late in the year," quarterback Sam Bradford said.

John Brown, who is just 105 yards shy of his first 1,000-yard season, came up large both last week and in the previous meeting with Philadelphia. The 25-year-old reeled in a 65-yard touchdown pass versus the Vikings and also corralled a 75-yard score in the waning moments of a 24-20 victory over the Eagles last season. Michael Floyd, who has recorded four 100-yard performances in his last five contests, and Larry Fitzgerald could also be in for a big day against an Eagles defense that has yielded 21 touchdowns to wideouts this season. Last season's rushing champion, DeMarco Murray, has played in just 39 snaps over the last two weeks, with 25 coming in Philadelphia's 23-20 victory over Buffalo. "I've never been concerned with making any individual happy," coach Chip Kelly said Thursday. "Our focus and goal is always on trying to win the football game. So anywhere I’ve ever been, I’ve never heard any coach ever discuss anything like that." Murray's team-leading 603 yards are a far cry from last season's total (1,845) with Dallas, and the 27-year-old once again finds himself as part of a committee with Ryan Mathews and veteran Darren Sproles.

 

Key Trends

  • Cardinals are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
  • Under is 7-1-1 in Cardinals last 9 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
  • Under is 7-0 in Eagles last 7 games following a ATS win.
  • Over is 6-0 in Eagles last 6 games after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-0 in Eagles last 5 games in Week 15.
  • Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.
  • Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
  • Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

 

Extra Points

1. Philadelphia WR Jordan Matthews (back), who was limited to just 19 receiving yards last week, was a full participant in practice on Thursday.

2. Arizona CB Patrick Peterson (ankle) was limited in practice on Thursday while DEs Corey Redding (ankle) and Frostee Rucker (illness) were absent.

3. The Eagles' 25 takeaways are second only to undefeated Carolina (33) for the most in the league.

 

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IBN FANTASY SLEEPERS

Rueben Randle (WR) Giants - Randle is actually a really strong choice and really should be getting more attention this week. Odell Beckham Jr. is great, as we know, but so is Josh Norman. Even if Norman doesn’t shut Beckham down, he will likely at least slow him down and force Eli Manning to look elsewhere more than usual. Randle is the WR2 in New York. To make him even more appealing, the Panthers CB2 Bene Benwikere is out for the season and 34-year-old Charles Tillman is hobbled with a knee injury. He’ll be beat up at best. Randle’s matchup is much better than meets the eye when you consider the injuries in the Panthers secondary and Norman shadowing Beckham for the majority of the game.

Vernon Davis (TE) Broncos - For just the second time in his Broncos tenure, Vernon Davis played more snaps than Owen Daniels in Week 14. The results were a steady 7-74 game, but Davis also let a pass get away from him that could have resulted in a long score. If he's still available on waiver wires, you can probably snag him and toss him right into your lineup. The Steelers had their share of struggles against tight ends this season, allowing over 800 yards on 118 targets this season.

 


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**All Lines are from 5Dimes & Bookmaker (5Dimes.eu / Bookmaker.eu)**

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Incarcerated Bob
It's the man they love to "HATE" - Started from the bottom in the sports world with Boomer & Carton (WFAN in NY) giving picks at an accuracy rate that...



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