NFL : IBN Incarcerated Picks - Monday Night Football Week 16
posted Dec 28 2015, 07:09AM
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Picks, Week 15 Edition : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks - Picks / Analysis

NFL Football - Monday Edition

*2015 NFL Season Record: 57-47-2 +$1,827

*2014 NFL Season + Playoffs Record: 98-86-6 +$15,568

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob

Co Write-Up via David Loret (@doc_Spoon on Twitter)

 

Cincinnati Bengals

@ Denver Broncosts

Vegas Lines

Line : DEN -3.5 (+100)

Total : O/U 39.5 (-105/-105)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

The Bengals will head to Denver on Monday night to face a Broncos team that is suddenly no longer a lock to finish atop the AFC West.

The Bengals went into San Francisco on Sunday and came away with a 24-14 victory as seven-point favorites. Cincinnati was dominant defensively in that one, allowing just 55 rushing yards while forcing four turnovers. The team will look to keep up the solid play on that end against a Broncos team that was lousy offensively in the second half of a 34-27 loss to the Steelers in Week 15. Denver has now lost two straight games and now finds itself with only a one-game lead over Kansas City in the AFC West. The Broncos and Bengals have met just once over the past three seasons and Cincinnati was victorious in that contest. The Bengals hosted the Broncos in the game and won 37-28 as 3.5-point home underdogs. Since 1992, the Broncos are, however, 9-3 SU against the Bengals and that includes a 4-0 record in Denver. The Bengals have kept things interesting in the losses though, going 7-5 ATS overall and 3-1 ATS in Denver. Cincinnati is 7-0 ATS in road games on the year, but does have to face a Denver team that is 8-0 ATS after allowing 50 or less rushing yards in two straight games since 1992. QB Andy Dalton (Thumb) remains out for the Bengals and TE Tyler Eifert (Concussion) is questionable for the team. The Broncos, meanwhile, could be without RB C.J. Anderson (Back), who is questionable for this game. They could get back S T.J. Ward (Ankle), who has missed the past few games and is listed as questionable for Monday night.

The Bengals dominated the 49ers on Sunday, winning 24-14 in a game that truly never seemed like it was going to get away. AJ McCarron looked excellent in his first start for Cincinnati, throwing for 192 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions. He completed 71.4% of his passes and will have the Bengals in position to win games as long as he isn’t turning the ball over. The guy that was responsible for most of Cincinnati’s points was Jeremy Hill. Hill rushed for just 31 yards on 19 carries, but he did find the end zone twice. He will need to run the ball well the rest of the way, as the Bengals will be leaning heavily on the ground game until Andy Dalton is back. Cincinnati’s defense (17.4 PPG allowed, 1st in NFL) was superb against the 49ers, allowing just 14 points in the game. The Bengals are allowing just 93.2 YPG (8th in NFL) on the ground this season and were able to hold the 49ers to 55 yards on Sunday. If they can keep it up defensively then McCarron will be under a lot less pressure the rest of the season.

Brock Osweiler threw for 296 yards with three touchdowns and one pick in last week’s loss to the Steelers, but he completed just 47.7% of his throws. If he is to start over Peyton Manning on Monday then he will need to be a lot more accurate. His inefficiency as a passer killed his team in the second half and it was a major reason they were unable to come away with a big road win in Pittsburgh. Denver’s defense wasn’t much better though. The Broncos are allowing just 79.9 YPG on the ground this season (1st in NFL) and 200.0 YPG through the air (1st in NFL), but they were unable to stop Pittsburgh on Sunday. Antonio Brown shredded the Broncos defense for 189 yards and two touchdowns. He had 16 receptions in the game and Denver will need to turn things around on Monday night. A matchup with the inexperienced AJ McCarron could be just what the doctor ordered and this Broncos team will come out with plenty of emotion, as it does not want to let its division lead slip away.

 

Key Trends

  • Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games.
  • Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Bengals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 16.
  • Over is 8-1 in Broncos last 9 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 Monday games.
  • Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.
  • Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

 

Extra Points

1. Broncos LB Von Miller has six sacks in last six games.

2. Bengals RB Jeremy Hill rushed for 147 yards and a TD in a 37-28 win over Denver last season.

3. Thomas had seven catches for 155 yards in last season's matchup.

 

 

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Incarcerated Bob
It's the man they love to "HATE" - Started from the bottom in the sports world with Boomer & Carton (WFAN in NY) giving picks at an accuracy rate that...





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