NCAA : IBN Picks - Bowl Games January 1st
posted Jan 01 2016, 10:12AM
posted in NCAAF, Betting

NCAA Picks, December 31st Bowl Edition : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks - Picks / Analysis

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob

Co Write-Up via David Loret (@doc_Spoon on Twitter)

 

13 Northwestern Wildcats

vs 23 Tennessee Volunteers

Outback Bowl

Vegas Lines

Line : TEN -12.5 (+135)

Total : O/U 50.5 (+134/-154)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

The Wildcats’ defense allowed an average of 14 points the last four games, led by sophomore linebacker Anthony Walker and senior defensive lineman Deonte Gibson. Walker, who was named to the Big Ten first team, has 113 tackles – 19.5 for loss – this season and Gibson boasts nine sacks, but All-Big Ten second team cornerback Nick VanHoose (three interceptions) is not expected to play due to a finger injury. Thorson has been intercepted seven times and completed only 51.6 percent of his passes with fullback Dan Vitale (33 catches, 355 yards) as his top target. Dobbs has raised his production as a junior with 2,125 yards through the air, a near 60 percent completion rate and just five interceptions. Dobbs, who was picked off 12 times in his first two seasons while throwing fewer passes combined than he did during the 2015 campaign, has found seven different players for at least two scoring strikes, five of whom have 270 receiving yards or more. Josh Malone has 29 receptions for 388 yards to lead the way and Kamara is a key versatile performer for the Volunteers, scoring 10 times and accumulating 1,016 all-purpose yards.

 

Key Trends

  • Wildcats are 4-1 ATS in their last five bowl games.
  • Volunteers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
  • Under is 16-5 in Wildcats last 21 non-conference games.
  • Over is 5-0 in Volunteers last five neutral site games.

 

Extra Points

1. Tennessee and Northwestern look to end breakout seasons on a high note when they meet in the Outback Bowl on Jan. 1 at Raymond James Stadium in Tampa. Tennessee won its last five to reach eight victories for the first time since posting 10 with a win at the Outback Bowl in 2007. The Wildcats finished the regular season with five consecutive victories and go for a school-record 11th in Tampa where they lost 38-35 in overtime Jan. 1, 2010 at the Outback Bowl.

2. Both teams depend on their rushing attacks with multi-purpose quarterbacks and 1,000-yard sophomore running backs leading the way. Northwestern’s freshman signal caller Clayton Thorson has thrown for seven touchdowns and rushed for another five while Justin Jackson was fourth in the Big Ten in all-purpose yards with 1,491 – 1,344 on the ground with four scores. Jalen Hurd was fourth in the SEC with 1,158 yards rushing to go along with 11 scores for the Volunteers and quarterback Joshua Dobbs accounted for 24 touchdowns – 15 passing and nine rushing.

3. Special teams could become a major factor as Tennessee boasts six return touchdowns this season – three on punts and three on kickoffs. Evan Berry took three kickoffs back for scores and averaged a national-best 38.3 yards per return while Cameron Sutton (18.7 yards per return, leading the country) scored twice and Alvin Kamara once returning punts for the Volunteers. Tennessee led the nation in kick returns while ranking second behind Texas A&M on punts and Northwestern is 56th and fourth (2.13), respectively, defending them.

 

 

IBN CAPPER'S UPDATED PICKS ON THIS GAME

 

JLB'S PREMIUM *FREE* PICK:

JLB'S PREMIUM *VIP* PICK:

(SIGN UP HERE FOR BEST BET ' PICK EMAILED ASAP

 

INCARCERATED BOB'S *FREE TEASER* PICK:
INCARCERATED BOB'S *VIP* PICK:

 (GET ACCESS NOW ' SIGN UP HERE)

 

VINNY THE GAMBLERS *FREE* PICK:

VINNY THE GAMBLERS *VIP* PICK:

 (GET ACCESS NOW ' SIGN UP HERE)

 

 

 

8 Notre Dame Fighting Irish

vs 7 Ohio State Buckeyes

Fiesta Bowl

Vegas Lines

Line : OSU -9 (+160)

Total : O/U 61 (+133/-153)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

The Fighting Irish suffered their two losses by a total of four points on the road at No. 1 Clemson and No. 6 Stanford. “Our scout teams have done a great job all year,” Notre Dame coach Brian Kelly told reporters. “We're going to lean on them again one more time to provide us with the kind of look necessary to prepare our defense. But no, we know the challenge that Ohio State brings, and we're going to have to do a great job of preparing our defense.” That defense allowed an average of 22.4 points in the regular season and was at its best against the pass, limiting opponents to 195.9 yards through the air. Buckeyes running back Ezekiel Elliott ran for 1,672 yards and 19 touchdowns but was critical of his usage after logging just 33 yards on 12 carries in the lone loss to Michigan State. Elliott bounced back with 214 yards and two scores the following week and figures to be a big part of the offense in the bowl game. Elliott is one of several Ohio State stars, including Jones and presumptive top-5 pick defensive lineman Joey Bosa, who could be headed for the NFL draft in the spring.

 

Key Trends

  • Fighting Irish are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six vs. Big Ten.
  • Buckeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games.
  • Under is 4-1 in Fighting Irish last five neutral site games.
  • Under is 5-1 in Buckeyes last six games overall.

 

Extra Points

1. No. 7 Ohio State and No. 8 Notre Dame were each only a few plays away from clinching a spot in the College Football Playoff but instead will have to be content with a New Year’s Six Bowl when they square off in the BattleFrog Fiesta Bowl in Glendale, Ariz., on Jan. 1. The defending-champion Buckeyes were in the top four until a 17-14 home loss to Michigan State in the penultimate game of the regular season knocked them out of a spot in the Big Ten title game. The Fighting Irish spent a week in the top four as well but dropped after closing the campaign with a 38-36 setback at Stanford.

2. Notre Dame’s explosive offense averaged 34.8 points – 31st in the nation – despite making a change at quarterback and losing top rusher C.J. Prosise down the stretch. Prosise (ankle) could be back for the bowl game but will be going against an Ohio State defense that finished second in the nation while allowing opponents an average of 14 points. Buckeyes co-defensive coordinator Chris Ash is set to leave to take the head coaching job at Rutgers after the bowl game, but former NFL and college head coach Greg Schiano was brought in to ease the transition and will serve as the co-defensive coordinator moving forward.

3. The Fighting Irish and the Buckeyes both switched quarterbacks during the season, though Notre Dame’s change was injury related. Malik Zaire went down in the second game of the season at Virginia and sophomore DeShone Kizer stepped in to throw for 2,600 yards and 19 touchdowns while adding nine scores on the ground. Ohio State went back and forth between Cardale Jones and J.T. Barrett before settling on Barrett, who will get the starting nod in the Fiesta Bowl.

 

 

IBN CAPPER'S UPDATED PICKS ON THIS GAME

 

JLB'S PREMIUM *FREE* PICK:

JLB'S PREMIUM *VIP* PICK:

(SIGN UP HERE FOR BEST BET ' PICK EMAILED ASAP

 

INCARCERATED BOB'S *FREE TEASER* PICK:
INCARCERATED BOB'S *VIP* PICK:

 (GET ACCESS NOW ' SIGN UP HERE)

 

VINNY THE GAMBLERS *FREE* PICK:

VINNY THE GAMBLERS *VIP* PICK:

 (GET ACCESS NOW ' SIGN UP HERE)

 

 

 

14 Michigan Wolverines

vs 19 Florida Gators

Citrus Bowl

Vegas Lines

Line : MICH -4.5 (-102)

Total : O/U 39.5 (-105/-105)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

Jake Butt and Jourdan Lewis announced they will return for the senior seasons after the junior tight end caught 48 passes for 620 yards and three touchdowns, while the junior cornerback was ranked third nationally with 19 pass breakups. Safety Jabrill Peppers (two rushing touchdowns, eight receptions), who won the Big Ten Freshman of the Year award after making an impact as a three-way player, could miss the bowl game after suffering a suspected hand injury. "He's working through something," Harbaugh told reporters. "We'll see." Starting quarterback Treon Harris has struggled to move the ball through the air and has failed to throw for 200 yards in each of his last three games. Vernon Hargreaves III, who is the Gators' first unanimous All-America pick since 2009, will likely play his last game as the junior cornerback is considered a surefire first-round pick in the 2015 NFL Draft. Defensive end Alex McCalister has been sidelined with a foot injury since Nov. 15 and will likely miss the game while wide receiver Brandon Powell is questionable because of a foot problem.

 

Key Trends

  • Wolverines are 1-3-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
  • Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
  • Over is 7-0 in Wolverines last seven games overall.
  • Under is 5-1 in Gators last six games overall.

 

Extra Points

1. Florida coach Jim McElwain and Michigan counterpart Jim Harbaugh resurrected dormant programs in their first year on the sidelines and look to cap off encouraging campaigns with a victory when the Gators and Wolverines meet in the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Fla., on Jan. 1. McElwain led Florida to the SEC Eastern Division title before losing 29-15 to College Football Playoff participant Alabama in the SEC championship game, while Harbaugh had Michigan in contention for the Big Ten East Division crown heading into the final week of the regular season. Defense has been the catalyst for the dramatic turnaround for both teams as the Gators rank eighth nationally in scoring defense (16.4 points per game) while the Wolverines are fourth in total defense (281.3 yards).

2. Florida's offense has sputtered without suspended quarterback Will Grier as the Gators were held to 17 points in their last two games, and couldn't manage an offensive score in the 27-2 setback to Florida State on Nov. 28. Michigan's Jake Rudock suffered a shoulder injury in the 42-13 loss to Ohio State, and it was initially feared that he would miss the bowl game, but the senior quarterback will make his final collegiate start on New Year's Day. Rudock struggled with the command of a new offense after transfering from Iowa before ending the season on a tear by throwing for 1,296 yards and 11 touchdowns in his last four games.

3. The Wolverines and Gators have meet twice previously in the postseason with Michigan emerging 38-30 victors in the 2003 Outback Bowl before downing Florida 41-35 in Lloyd Carr's final game as coach in the 2008 Capital One Bowl. The Gators last met a Big Ten team in 2012 when they beat Ohio State in the Gator Bowl and McElwain, who is one of six finalists for the Dodd Trophy - awarded to the top coach in the country - is keen to lead Florida to its third straight win over a Big Ten opponent. "We're here to win a ballgame," McElwain told reporters. "We aren't here just to go on rides."

 

 

IBN CAPPER'S UPDATED PICKS ON THIS GAME

 

JLB'S PREMIUM *FREE* PICK:

JLB'S PREMIUM *VIP* PICK:

(SIGN UP HERE FOR BEST BET ' PICK EMAILED ASAP

 

INCARCERATED BOB'S *FREE TEASER* PICK:
INCARCERATED BOB'S *VIP* PICK:

 (GET ACCESS NOW ' SIGN UP HERE)

 

VINNY THE GAMBLERS *FREE* PICK:

VINNY THE GAMBLERS *VIP* PICK:

 (GET ACCESS NOW ' SIGN UP HERE)

 

5 Iowa Hawkeyes

vs 6 Stanford Cardinals

Rose Bowl

Vegas Lines

Line : STAN -10 (+173)

Total : O/U 58 (+138/-158)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

The Hawkeyes can expect a heavy dose of McCaffrey, who rushed for 1,847 yards and eight touchdowns while adding 540 receiving yards and four more scores through the air. “He’s the best player in the nation," coach David Shaw told reporters after McCaffrey recorded 461 yards in total offense in the Pac-12 title game. “I don't know if that's even a question. There's nobody in the nation doing what he's been doing. It's not even a debate.” Linebacker Blake Martinez averages a Pac-12-high 10.2 tackles per game to lead the defense, which benefits from a Stanford offense that leads the nation in time of possession. For the Hawkeyes to win their school-record 13th game and their first Rose Bowl since beating Cal in 1959, they’ll need another solid outing from quarterback C.J. Beathard, who threw 15 touchdowns against three interceptions and rushed for six scores. Beathard could be without the services of leading rusher Jordan Canzeri, who ran for 12 touchdowns but left the Big Ten championship game with a sprained right ankle and is listed as questionable for the Rose Bowl. Iowa’s secondary is led by first team All-American Desmond King, who received the Jim Thorpe Award as the nation’s top defensive back after recording eight interceptions while averaging 25.6 yards per kickoff return and 12.7 yards on punts.

 

Key Trends

  • Cardinal are 5-1 ATS in their last six bowl games.
  • Hawkeyes are 5-2 ATS in their last seven bowl games.
  • Over is 8-3 in Cardinal last 11 games following a straight up win.
  • Under is 8-2 in Hawkeyes last 10 neutral site games.

 

Extra Points

1. Two teams that barely missed out on a spot in the College Football Playoff meet Jan. 1 as Iowa takes on Stanford in the Rose Bowl Game presented by Northwestern Mutual in Pasadena, Calif. “If the Rose Bowl is the consolation prize, what a deal for both of us,” Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz told reporters. The Hawkeyes suffered their first loss with a 16-13 defeat to Michigan State in the Big Ten championship game, while Stanford earned its third Rose Bowl berth in the last four years with a 41-22 win over USC in the Pac-12 title game.

2. Iowa began the season unranked after finishing 7-6 a year ago but improved every week to earn its first trip to the Rose Bowl since 1991. The Big Ten West Division champions rely heavily on their run defense, which ranks 10th in the nation at fewer than 115 yards per game. The impressive unit will be tested by a powerful Stanford offensive attack led by sophomore running back Christian McCaffrey, who finished second in the Heisman Trophy race after breaking Barry Sanders' single-season all-purpose yards record with 3,496.

3. Stanford struggled in its only other meeting against a Big Ten opponent this season as the Cardinal scored their fewest points since 2007 and lost their opener 16-6 at Northwestern. Following that low point, however, coach David Shaw’s squad strung together eight straight wins before losing 38-36 to Oregon on Nov. 14. In addition to McCaffrey, the Cardinal boast a steady hand at quarterback in senior Kevin Hogan, who has thrown for 2,644 yards and 24 touchdowns against seven interceptions while completing 68.6 percent of his passes.

 

 

IBN CAPPER'S UPDATED PICKS ON THIS GAME

 

JLB'S PREMIUM *FREE* PICK:

JLB'S PREMIUM *VIP* PICK:

(SIGN UP HERE FOR BEST BET ' PICK EMAILED ASAP

 

INCARCERATED BOB'S *FREE TEASER* PICK:
INCARCERATED BOB'S *VIP* PICK:

 (GET ACCESS NOW ' SIGN UP HERE)

 

VINNY THE GAMBLERS *FREE* PICK:

VINNY THE GAMBLERS *VIP* PICK:

 (GET ACCESS NOW ' SIGN UP HERE)

 

 

 

12 Ole Miss Rebels

vs 16 Oklahoma State Cowboys

Cotton Bowl

Vegas Lines

Line : OLE -9.5 (-105)

Total : O/U 68.5 (-105/-105)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

The Cowboys rank in the top 10 nationally in passing yards (seventh) and points per game (ninth). They have tons of weapons on offense, but sophomore wide receiver James Washington (52 catches, 1,077 yards, 10 touchdowns) is the best of the bunch. Oklahoma State’s running game is relatively mediocre with only Chris Carson (504 yards) having amassed more than 300 and the team averaging just 3.7 yards per carry. The Rebels’ offense is centered around dynamic receiver Laquon Treadwell (76 catches, 1,082 yards, eight TDs), who had found the end zone in six straight games prior to a quiet day against Mississippi State to end the regular season. Chad Kelly threw 27 touchdowns during the year, including three in a signature win against Alabama back in September. A one-point overtime loss to a strong Arkansas team is the only thing separating Ole Miss from entering the postseason on a five-game winning streak.

 

Key Trends

  • Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five neutral site games.
  • Rebels are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight neutral site games.
  • Over is 6-0 in Cowboys last six games overall.
  • Under is 5-1 in Rebels last six neutral site games.

 

Extra Points

1. After a humbling defeat a year ago in the postseason, Ole Miss looks to make amends when it takes on Oklahoma State in the Allstate Sugar Bowl Jan. 1 in New Orleans. The Rebels absorbed a 42-3 loss in last season’s Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl against TCU and now must contend with another talented team from the Big 12. The Cowboys started 10-0 and had hopes of reaching the College Football Playoff before ending the regular season with back-to-back losses.

2. Ole Miss junior defensive lineman Robert Nkemdiche - the team’s best defensive player - fell 15 feet twice from a window in mid-December and had to be hospitalized. The team announced Dec. 20 that Nkemdiche, who was charged with misdemeanor marijuana possession following the incident, will be suspended for the bowl game. "I have learned a valuable lesson in the last week, and I look forward to showing NFL personnel that this is not representative of my true character," said Nkemdiche, who announced he will enter the NFL draft, where he likely will be a top-10 pick. "I want to thank my coaches, my teammates and Rebel Nation for their support these past three years, and I look forward to making them proud for years to come."

3. Oklahoma State has some injury issues of its own with quarterback Mason Rudolph employing a walking boot on his right foot with the bowl game less than two weeks away. Still, coach Mike Gundy seems to be unconcerned about the status of Rudolph and two of his weapons, tight end Blake Jarwin (ribs) and fullback Jeremy Seaton (undisclosed). Rudolph led the Big 12 with 57 passes of 20 yards or more and finished his sophomore regular season with 3,591 passing yards, 21 touchdowns and nine interceptions.

 

IBN CAPPER'S UPDATED PICKS ON THIS GAME

 

JLB'S PREMIUM *FREE* PICK:

JLB'S PREMIUM *VIP* PICK:

(SIGN UP HERE FOR BEST BET ' PICK EMAILED ASAP

 

INCARCERATED BOB'S *FREE TEASER* PICK:
INCARCERATED BOB'S *VIP* PICK:

 (GET ACCESS NOW ' SIGN UP HERE)

 

VINNY THE GAMBLERS *FREE* PICK:

VINNY THE GAMBLERS *VIP* PICK:

 (GET ACCESS NOW ' SIGN UP HERE)

 


IBN CAPPERS ON TWITTER

*Twitter Access For IBN Cappers*

Twitter.com/JLBCashout

Twitter.com/Incarceratedbob 

Twitter.com/VinnyDaGambler

*Email* Incarceratedbob@Gmail.Com – Get info on becoming a member ' all picks (All Sports) emailed daily.


**All Lines are from 5Dimes & Bookmaker (5Dimes.eu / Bookmaker.eu)**

Follow Incarcerated Bob's **Breaking Sports Stories + Picks/Fantasy Advice**

Twitter.com/Incarceratedbob

 

Incarcerated Bob
It's the man they love to "HATE" - Started from the bottom in the sports world with Boomer & Carton (WFAN in NY) giving picks at an accuracy rate that...



Recent IBN Stories