NFL : IBN Picks - Week 17
posted Jan 03 2016, 08:43AM
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Picks, Week 16 Edition : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks - Picks / Analysis

NFL Football - Sunday Edition

*2015 NFL Season Record: 83-71-3 +$5,967

*2014 NFL Season + Playoffs Record: 98-86-6 +$15,568

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob

Co Write-Up via David Loret (@doc_Spoon on Twitter)

 

New York Jets
@ Buffalo Bills

Vegas Lines

Line : NYJ -3 (+105)

Total : O/U 41 (-102/-108)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

It's only fitting that Rex Ryan and the Buffalo Bills are the last obstacle standing in the way of a playoff berth for the New York Jets. Visiting New York faces its former coach, who was fired after six seasons and immediately hired by Buffalo last January, on Sunday with its first postseason bid since 2010 on the line. The Jets leapfrogged the Pittsburgh Steelers with their fifth straight win last week, leaving them in control of their own destiny. Led by quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is 276 passing yards shy of his first 4,000-yard season, New York knocked off New England 26-20 in overtime a week ago to move to the brink of the playoffs. The Bills will miss the playoffs for the 16th straight year, but both Ryan and general manager Doug Whaley will be back to get a chance to make amends in 2016. On Wednesday, the team announced that the duo will get another chance to turn things around despite the disappointing campaign.

Fitzpatrick and running backs Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell all missed portions of practice during the week but are expected to play. The Jets, who took the kickoff in overtime and marched downfield for the winning score on a pass from Fitzpatrick to Eric Decker, could still earn a playoff berth with a loss if Pittsburgh loses to Cleveland. "The past couple of weeks have been playoff games," Jets coach Todd Bowles said. "There really is no pressure." Ryan celebrated on the field after his team edged the Jets 22-17 earlier in the season as his defense had two interceptions, recovered a fumble and stopped the Jets inside the Bills' 10 in the final minutes. Overall, however, it's been a disappointing year for Ryan, a self-proclaimed defensive specialist, as Buffalo ranks 20th in total defense and, shockingly, 31st in sacks. LeSean McCoy is questionable with a torn MCL, leaving Karlos Williams and Mike Gillislee to shoulder the load at running back.

Key Trends

  • Jets are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
  • Jets are 3-0-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Jets are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 6-0 in Bills last 6 games in January.
  • Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 vs. AFC East.
  • Bills are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
  • Jets are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
  • Under is 5-2-1 in the last 8 meetings in Buffalo.
  • Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.

 

Extra Points

1. The Jets own just two wins over teams headed for the playoffs - Washington and New England.

2. Tyrod Taylor looks to earn a $1 million bonus for starting for the Bills, who are 4-3 at home

3. The Bills snapped a two-game slide last game, allowing a season-low six points in a 16-6 win over Dallas.

 

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Seattle Seahawks

@ Arizona Cardinals

Vegas Lines

Line : ARI -6 (-108)

Total : O/U 47 (-102/-108)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

Riding their longest winning streak since 1948, the Arizona Cardinals are still in contention for the No. 1 seed in the NFC as they prepare for a rematch with the visiting Seattle Seahawks on Sunday. The Cardinals have ripped off nine consecutive victories to set a franchise record for wins and already have wrapped up the No. 2 seed and a first-round bye. Arizona coach Bruce Arians balked at the idea of holding out some of his key players. “(I) don’t think you get anything out of resting guys," Arians said. "We're playing so well right now, we don’t want to change.” The Seahawks, who had a five-game winning streak snapped by the St. Louis Rams last week, have locked up a playoff berth and will be on the road for the first round of the postseason. The Cardinals won the first matchup with a 39-32 victory in Seattle on Nov. 15.

After averaging a shade over 34 points during a dominant five-game stretch, Seattle struggled against the Rams as fill-in running backs Christine Michael and Bryce Brown were limited to a combined 15 yards on 13 carries. Russell Wilson had thrown for 19 touchdowns and no interceptions in the winning streak, but he was sacked four times and committed a pair of turnovers against St. Louis. Wide receiver Doug Baldwin set a franchise mark with his 14th touchdown catch last week - 11 in the past five weeks - while Seattle's defense held the Rams to 207 total yards. Arizona, which has not lost since a 25-13 setback in Pittsburgh on Oct. 18, is coming off a dominating pair of victories, following up a 40-17 romp in Philadelphia by demolishing Green Bay 38-8 a week ago. The Cardinals, who lead the league in scoring (32.2 points per game) and total offense (420.1 yards), collected nine sacks against the Packers, including three by veteran Dwight Freeney. Carson Palmer threw for 363 yards and three touchdowns in the first matchup versus Seattle while rookie David Johnson is an emerging star since taking over as the starting running back.

 

Key Trends

  • Over is 5-0 in Seahawks last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Seahawks are 17-3-2 ATS in their last 22 games after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Seahawks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
  • Over is 5-0 in Cardinals last 5 games in January.
  • Cardinals are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 150 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings in Arizona.
  • Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.

 

Extra Points

1. Palmer is 26-4 in his last 30 starts with Arizona.

2. Seahawks CB Richard Sherman has seven interceptions in his past eight meetings versus Arizona.

3. Johnson is averaging 149.8 yards from scimmage and has scored five TDs in his four starts.

 

IBN CAPPER'S UPDATED PICKS ON THIS GAME

 

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Minnesota Vikings

@ Green Bay Packers

Vegas Lines

Line : GB -3 (-121)

Total : O/U 43.5 (-105/-105)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

The NFC North division title and the No. 3 seed in the conference is on the line when the Green Bay Packers host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday night. While both teams have already secured berths in the postseason, the ramifications will be huge: The winner will host a wild card team in the first round of the playoffs while the loser will hit the road as either the fifth or sixth seed. The Packers stopped a three-game skid with a 30-13 victory at Minnesota on Nov. 22, but they were manhandled in a 38-8 beatdown at Arizona last week. "We have to hold ourselves to a higher standard and play better," Green Bay quarterback Aaron Rodgers said. "Everybody has to play better." Following a stretch of three losses in four games, the Vikings moved back into contention for the division title with lopsided wins over Chicago and the New York Giants. Minnesota has won only once in its last 12 meetings at Lambeau Field.

While Green Bay was embarrassed by the Cardinals, Minnesota lost a narrow 23-20 decision at Arizona in Week 14 before destroying the Bears and Giants by a combined 53 points. Second-year quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has thrown for six TD passes and zero interceptions over his last three games, but he was sacked six times and Adrian Peterson was held to 45 yards on 13 carries in the first meeting against the Packers. Minnesota ranks sixth in the league with an average of 19.3 points allowed, but it is vulnerable against the run and gave up 100 yards rushing to Eddie Lacy in November. Green Bay appeared to be getting back on track after averaging 28.3 points during a three-game winning streak, but surrendered nine sacks and managed only 178 total yards in the crushing defeat at Arizona. Rodgers had two fumbles returned for touchdowns while posting his second-lowest totals in completions (15) and yards (151) while failing to connect on 60 percent of his passes for the seventh time in 10 games. Lacy has been held to 83 yards in his last two games while leading receiver Randall Cobb has eight receptions for only 55 yards in that same span.

 

Key Trends

  • Vikings are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
  • Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 road games.
  • Under is 3-0-1 in Vikings last 4 road games.
  • Over is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games in Week 17.
  • Under is 5-0 in Packers last 5 home games.
  • Packers are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Green Bay.
  • Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Green Bay.
  • Home team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

 

Extra Points

1. Rodgers has won 10 of his last 11 versus the Vikings, throwing for 28 touchdowns and three interceptions.

2. Peterson has rushed for 455 yards and two touchdowns in his last three games at Green Bay, playoffs included.

3. Minnesota's last win at Green Bay came in 2009, with ex-Packer Brett Favre at QB.

 

 

IBN CAPPER'S UPDATED PICKS ON THIS GAME

 

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IBN *FREE* TEASERS

BOB'S NFL: *TEASER* $900 BILLS +13 :: GIANTS/EAGLES OVER 40 :: CARDS/SEAHAWKS OVER 37 (10 PT TEASER ' TIES REDUCE) -115 

 

JLB'S $500 *NFL TEASER* STEELERS/BROWNS OVER 40 :: CHARGERS/BRONCOS OVER 35 (7 PT TEASE ' TIES REDUCE) -120

 


 

IBN FANTASY SLEEPERS

Devin Funchess (WR) Panthers - Funchess has a few things going in his favor in Week 17. His team is a 10.5-point favorite over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and their implied team total is 28.25 points, fourth-highest on the weekend. The Bucs rank 21st against fantasy receivers and are 30th on a per-target basis. Per our metrics, they own the 26th-best pass defense on a per-play basis after adjusting for opponent strength. Ted Ginn Jr. left the team's Week 16 contest in the first half and didn't practice on Wednesday. If he is unable to go, Funchess could see an uptick in usage. He failed to catch his lone target in Week 16, but he had at least one red zone target in his five prior games (and eight red zone looks in that stretch).

Nate Washington (WR) Texans - If you're willing to trust Hoyer, you should be willing to trust Washington. The Texans will be without Cecil Shorts, and that's been good for Washington this year. Per the RotoViz Game Splits App, Washington has averaged 6.21 points with Shorts in the lineup in nine games and 22.3 points without him in two games. No, that's not a huge sample, but combined with the matchup, it's a good recipe for deep sleeper potential. The Jags are 19th in fantasy points per target allowed to wide receivers and 29th in pass defense, per our metrics. Washington averaged 11 targets in his two games without Shorts. Play him if you need a receiver.


 

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**All Lines are from 5Dimes & Bookmaker (5Dimes.eu / Bookmaker.eu)**

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Incarcerated Bob
It's the man they love to "HATE" - Started from the bottom in the sports world with Boomer & Carton (WFAN in NY) giving picks at an accuracy rate that...



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