NFL : IBN Incarcerated Picks - Wildcard Saturday
posted Jan 09 2016, 07:08AM
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Picks, Wildcard Week Saturday Edition : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks - Picks / Analysis

NFL Football - Wildcard Week Saturday

*2015 NFL Season Record: 85-74-2 +$3,567

*2014 NFL Season + Playoffs Record: 98-86-6 +$15,568

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob

Co Write-Up via David Loret (@doc_Spoon on Twitter)

 

Kansas City

@ Houston Texans

Vegas Lines

Line : KC -3 (-104)

Total : O/U 39.5 (-105/-105)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

The NFL postseason begins with the Texans hosting a Chiefs team that has won 10 straight games entering Saturday’s win or go home battle.

The Chiefs are the hottest team in the league entering the postseason, as their 23-17 home victory over Oakland in Week 17 was their 10th straight victory. Kansas City has not been blowing teams out, though. In fact, the Chiefs have covered in just one of their past four games. The Texans, meanwhile, won-and-covered in their final three games and they needed all of those wins to come away as the winner of the AFC South. These two teams have already met this season and the Chiefs were the winners in that Sep. 13 game. Kansas City went into Houston that day and won 27-20 as a one-point road favorite. The team has won the only two meetings in this series over the past three seasons. There are trends that work both ways in this game, as the Chiefs are 8-0 ATS off two or more consecutive Unders over the past two seasons. They are also, however, a miserable 1-10 ATS in playoff games since 1992. LB Justin Houston (Knee) is listed as questionable for the Chiefs in this one and WR Cecil Shorts (Hamstring) and LB Jadeveon Clowney (Foot) are questionable for the Texans.

The Chiefs have been playing insanely well, but none of that matters if the team can’t pick up a win on Saturday. Kansas City will lean heavily on its defense in this one and it is for good reason. The Chiefs have allowed 17 or less points in four straight games and have not allowed more than 22 points in a single game since a Week 4 loss to the Bengals. Offensively, Kansas City will lean on a running game that has churned out 127.8 yards per game (6th in NFL). The Chiefs have had no problem dealing with the loss of Jamaal Charles, as Charcandrick West and Spencer Ware have run the ball extremely well in his place. They will need to find a way to be effective on Saturday. As for Alex Smith, the quarterback must avoid making any costly errors on Saturday. He has thrown for 3,486 yards with 20 touchdowns and just seven interceptions this year, but one of those picks was against the Raiders in Week 17 and it went the other way for a touchdown. That type of error could be the difference in whether or not his team can advance.

The Texans were a long shot to make the postseason before the year, but the team was able to surprise people en route to doing so. Houston’s defense was remarkable during a three-game winning streak to finish the season. The Texans allowed just 22 points over the final three weeks of the year and that play on the defensive end is what ultimately got the team into the playoffs. Brian Hoyer was also a revelation for the Texans, throwing for 2,606 yards with 19 touchdowns and just seven picks this season. He’ll look to keep the ball out of the Chiefs’ hands for as long as he can on Saturday and should be able to do that as long as he is targeting DeAndre Hopkins often. Hopkins emerged as one of the best receivers in football this season, hauling in 111 catches for 1,521 yards and 11 touchdowns. He should have no problem finding success against the Chiefs, as he had nine receptions for 98 yards and two touchdowns when they met earlier in the season.

 

Key Trends

  • Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Over is 3-0-1 in Chiefs last 4 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
  • Under is 5-0 in Texans last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
  • Texans are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Texans are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS win.
  • Road team is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
  • Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Houston.
  • Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings in Houston.

 

Extra Points

1. Kansas City LB Justin Houston sat out the team's final five games with a knee injury but could be in line to return versus the Texans - against whom he forced a fumble that led to a touchdown in the opener.

2. Houston RB Alfred Blue (team-leading 698 yards) rushed for 102 yards last week but was limited to just 42 on nine carries in Week 1.

3. The Chiefs have lost eight straight postseason games.

 

 

 

IBN CAPPER'S UPDATED PICKS ON THIS GAME

 

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Pittsburgh Steelers

@ Cincinnati Bengals

Vegas Lines

Line : PIT -1.5 (+112)

Total : O/U 44.5 (-107/-103)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

Saturday’s second AFC playoff game will feature the Bengals hosting the division rival Steelers.

Pittsburgh needed a win over Cleveland plus a Jets loss to the Bills in Week 17 or the team was not going to make the playoffs, and the Steelers got just that. The team went into FirstEnergy Stadium and defeated the Browns 28-12 as 12.5-point favorites and the Jets lost 22-17 in Buffalo. The Steelers now face a Cincinnati team that they are 4-2 both SU and ATS against over the past three seasons. Each team won-and-covered when playing in the other’s stadium this season, but the Steelers are an impressive 20-5 SU and 19-6 ATS when playing in Cincinnati since 1992. This is, however, a different Bengals team. Cincinnati was extremely impressive throughout the regular season and comes into this one after having gone 4-2 both SU and ATS over the final six weeks of the season. Some trends to keep an eye on are that the Bengals are just 3-12 ATS in January games since 1992. They are also, however, an impressive 8-1 ATS after covering the spread in two of their previous three games this season. RB DeAngelo Williams (Ankle) is questionable for the Steelers coming into this one. For the Bengals, QB Andy Dalton (Thumb) got his cast removed this week but A.J. McCarron is being prepped as the starter.

The Steelers have one of the most explosive offenses in football, scoring 26.4 PPG (4th in NFL) thanks to 287.7 YPG passing (3rd in NFL) and 107.8 YPG rushing (16th in NFL). This team can get it done in any way necessary offensively, but the injury to DeAngelo Williams complicates things. If he can play, he must run the ball effectively. It would really hurt Pittsburgh if he is forced to sit out or just doesn’t perform the way he is capable of. With the uncertainty in the running game, Ben Roethlisberger is going to have a lot more on his plate. As usual, the Steelers quarterback piled up numbers with 3,938 yards, 21 touchdowns and 16 picks in just 12 games this season. He did, however, struggled against Cincinnati on the year. In two meetings with the team, Roethlisberger threw for just one touchdown and was picked off four times. He will need to take care of the ball in this one. Antonio Brown will need to help his quarterback by getting open in this game. He had just 13 catches for 144 yards and no touchdowns in two meetings with the Bengals this season and that is very unlike him, as he had 1,834 yards with 10 touchdowns on the season. Defensively, the Steelers will need to put pressure on whoever is playing quarterback for the Bengals. Dalton has struggled in the playoffs and will be nervous coming into this one and the same will be the case for McCarron, who has never started a playoff game.

The Bengals had a very good season, but they will unfortunately be dealing with a bad situation at quarterback in this game. Andy Dalton, who threw for 3,250 yards with 25 touchdowns and just seven interceptions in 13 games this year, is just getting over a fractured hand and is unlikely to play in this one. That leaves AJ McCarron as the starter and he will certainly be nervous in his first postseason start. McCarron has already faced the Steelers in Cincinnati this season and Pittsburgh won that game 33-20. McCarron was 22-for-32 with 280 yards, two touchdowns and two interceptions in that one. He will need to be more careful with the ball, as he can’t be handing it over to Pittsburgh’s high-powered offense on Saturday. If the Bengals are going to win this game then the team is going to really need to play a good game defensively. With a young quarterback starting, this game will need to be won in grind-it-out fashion. This should not be a problem for a Cincinnati defense that allowed just 17.4 PPG (2nd in NFL) this season. The team also allowed just 18 passing touchdowns (2nd in NFL), which really bodes well considering Ben Roethlisberger and Antonio Brown will be in town on Saturday.

 

Key Trends

  • Over is 4-0 in Steelers last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 7-0-1 in Steelers last 8 games after accumulating more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
  • Over is 4-0-1 in Steelers last 5 Wildcard games.
  • Under is 4-0 in Bengals last 4 games in January.
  • Under is 6-0 in Bengals last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Bengals are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 Wildcard games.
  • Steelers are 13-2-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Cincinnati.
  • Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
  • Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings in Cincinnati.

 

Extra Points

1. Pittsburgh T Marcus Gilbert originally tweeted on Dec. 13 that he "would love to see (the Bengals) in the playoffs where they choke." The tweet has since been deleted.

2. Bengals S Reggie Nelson finished tied with Kansas City rookie CB Marcus Peters for the league lead with eight interceptions.

3. The Steelers registered 48 sacks, good enough for the third-highest total in the league.

 

 

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IBN NFL TEASERS

BOB's *TEASER* $900 TEXANS +13 :: CHIEFS/TEXANS OVER 29.5 :: STEELERS/BENGALS OV 34.5 (10 PT TEASER ' TIES REDUCE) -115  

JLB's $800 *TEASER* TEXANS +10 :: BENGALS +8.5 (7PT TEASER ' TIES REDUCE) -125

 

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**All Lines are from 5Dimes & Bookmaker (5Dimes.eu / Bookmaker.eu)**

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Incarcerated Bob
It's the man they love to "HATE" - Started from the bottom in the sports world with Boomer & Carton (WFAN in NY) giving picks at an accuracy rate that...



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