NCAAF Championship - Clemson vs Alabama
posted Jan 11 2016, 07:39AM
posted in NCAAF, Betting

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Co Write-Up via David Loret (@doc_Spoon on Twitter)

 

2 Alabama Crimson Tide

vs 1 Clemson Tigers

CFB CHAMPIONSHIP

Vegas Lines

Line : BAMA -6.5 (-112)

Total : O/U 50 (-105/-105)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

The top two teams in the country will play for the national championship on Monday night in Arizona when No. 2 Alabama collides with unbeaten No.1 Clemson.

Both schools are sizzling hot, as the Crimson Tide (13-1 SU, 8-6 ATS) have ripped off 11 straight wins by an average of 23.2 PPG, while the Tigers (14-0 SU, 7-6-1 ATS) have beaten their past nine opponents by 18.1 PPG. Both teams had little problems in the national semifinals, as Alabama held a 440-239 total yards advantage in a 38-0 pounding of Michigan State, while Clemson rolled up 530 total yards in an easy 37-17 win over Oklahoma. The last time the Tigers won in this series was 1905, as the Crimson Tide have prevailed in each of the past 12 meetings, including seven by shutout. However, the only matchup to take place in the past 40 years occurred on Aug. 30, 2008 when Alabama beat Clemson 34-10. There are plenty of reasons for bettors to place a wager on either team Monday, as the Crimson Tide are 26-12 under head coach Nick Saban after allowing less than 750 total yards in a three-game stretch, and excellent offensive teams (34+ PPG) facing good defensive teams (16 to 21 PPG allowed) after a win by 35+ points after 7+ games are a hefty 39-12 ATS (77%) in the past 10 seasons. However, the Tigers are 30-14 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992, and are a perfect 6-0 ATS away from home under head coach Dabo Swinney when facing excellent teams outscoring their opponents by at least 17 PPG. With Clemson star DL Shaq Lawson (knee) upgraded to probable for this contest, the only absences are all suspension related. Alabama DB Tony Brown is out after violating team rules, while the Tigers trio of WR Deon Cain, TE Jay Jay McCullough and K Ammon Lakip all remain suspended after failing drug tests before the semifinals.

Alabama has nearly identical offensive numbers both overall (34.4 PPG, 424 total YPG) and away from home (34.4 PPG, 428 total YPG), where the team is a perfect 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS. This is a run-heavy offense with 59% of the plays coming on the ground, leading to 204 YPG on 4.8 YPC. The play selection has also resulted in a whopping 33:48 average time of possession this season. The Tide have also been strong through their air with 219 passing YPG on 7.3 YPA. Heisman Trophy-winning RB Derrick Henry is the main engine of this offense with an eye-popping 2,061 rushing yards on 5.7 YPC and 25 touchdowns. In his past seven games versus FBS opponents (Michigan State and six SEC teams), Henry has carried the football 230 times (33 per game) for 1,328 yards (190 YPG) on 5.8 YPC with 13 touchdowns. Senior QB Jake Coker (67% completions, 2,775 pass yds, 7.5 YPA, 19 TD, 8 INT) isn't flashy, but he has thrown just two interceptions in his past eight games combined. In his past four games, Coker has connected on 71-of-95 throws (75%) for 206 YPG (8.7 YPA), 7 TD and 0 INT, and is coming off a season-high 286 passing yards in the win over Michigan State. WR Calvin Ridley caught eight of those passes for 138 yards and two touchdowns, giving him 1,031 receiving yards and 7 TD in his freshman season. Alabama's defense continues to stifle opponents with allowing a paltry 13.4 PPG on 257 total YPG this season, including 9.3 PPG and 226 total YPG over the past three games. While opposing rushers gain only 71 YPG on 2.3 YPC, opposing quarterbacks don't fare much better with 186 YPG on a mere 5.8 YPA and 49% completion rate. The Crimson Tide have not had a negative turnover margin in any of their past eight games where they have 14 takeaways and only five giveaways. This could be problematic for a Tigers offense that has committed multiple turnovers in eight games this season.

Clemson's offense has been rolling all year with 38.4 PPG on 512 total YPG, and those numbers jump to 41.4 PPG on 544 total YPG away from home. The team keeps the ball on the ground 58% of the time this season, which leads to a hefty 228 rushing YPG on 5.0 YPC. In the two December postseason games (ACC Championship vs. North Carolina and national semifinals vs. Oklahoma), the Tigers have topped 310 rushing yards both times, totaling 631 yards on 114 carries (5.5 YPC). Despite the rushing prowess, the air attack has also produced at least 215 yards in seven straight games, which runs its season averages to 284 passing YPG on 8.3 YPA. Sophomore QB Deshaun Watson is having a sensational year with 3,699 passing yards (8.3 YPA), 31 TD and 12 INT. Four different Clemson receivers have at least 34 catches and five touchdown grabs, led by sophomore WR Artavis Scott (89 rec, 868 yds, 5 TD), who has racked up a hefty 49 receptions over the past seven games. Watson has also run for 1,032 yards (5.5 YPC) and 12 TD this year, which includes five 100-yard efforts in the past six contests. The team's top ground gainer is RB Wayne Gallman, who has picked up 1,482 rushing yards (5.5 YPC) and 12 touchdowns this year. Gallman has topped the 100-yard mark in nine of his past 11 games, including 187 yards in the ACC title game and 150 yards versus Oklahoma. The Tigers defense often gets overshadowed by the explosive offense, but this unit has been solid all season in holding opponents to 20.0 PPG on 302 total YPG. The run-stop unit limits teams to a meager 125 YPG on 3.6 YPC while opposing quarterbacks are throwing for only 177 YPG on 6.0 YPA and 48% completions. The Clemson defense has also generated a respectable 25 turnovers this season, but is facing an Alabama offense with only one turnover in the past four games combined.

 

Key Trends

  • Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. ACC.
  • Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
  • Crimson Tide are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games.
  • Under is 4-0 in Tigers last 4 Monday games.
  • Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 neutral site games.

 

Extra Points

1. Second-ranked Alabama is looking for its fourth national title in the past seven seasons when it faces top-ranked Clemson in the College Football Playoff national championship game at Glendale, Ariz. on Monday. The Crimson Tide reached the title game with a resounding 38-0 victory over Michigan State in the semifinals for their 11th straight victory. The Tigers have won 17 consecutive games dating back to last season and throttled Oklahoma in the second half of their semifinal en route to a 37-17 victory.

2. Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry of Alabama has rushed for an SEC-record 2,061 yards to go with a conference-tying 25 rushing touchdowns while cementing himself as one of the top running backs in school and SEC history. Clemson sophomore quarterback Deshaun Watson finished third in the Heisman Trophy balloting and his multidimensional skills - 3,699 passing yards and 31 touchdowns, 1,032 rushing yards and 12 scores - concern Crimson Tide coach Nick Saban. "Really is probably as fine a dual-threat quarterback as we've played against for a long, long time and certainly does an outstanding job of executing their offense, and there's no question about the fact that he's an outstanding leader as well, because you can see the way the players sort of rally around him," Saban told reporters.

3. The status of Clemson junior defensive end Shaq Lawson remains unclear after he suffered a sprained MCL in his left knee during the semifinal victory over Oklahoma. Tigers coach Dabo Swinney has stated that he is hopeful that Lawson (team-best 23.5 tackles for losses, including 10.5 sacks) would be able to play, but the NFL-bound Lawson didn't sound as sure when he met with reporters Tuesday. "I probably wouldn't be able to say I can play right now," Lawson said. "I've just got to get comfortable with it. I'm not comfortable with it right now."

 

IBN CAPPER'S UPDATED PICKS ON THIS GAME

 

JLB'S PREMIUM *FREE* PICK: $500 ALABAMA -3.5 (1H) -105

JLB'S PREMIUM *VIP* PICK: $2,500 ALABAMA @ CLEMSON *CASHOUT TOP PLAY*

(SIGN UP HERE FOR BEST BET ' PICK EMAILED ASAP

 

INCARCERATED BOB'S PICK: SEE TEASER BELOW
INCARCERATED BOB'S *VIP* PICK: $2,000 ALABAMA @ CLEMSON "BIG BOY BET"

 (GET ACCESS NOW ' SIGN UP HERE)

 

VINNY THE GAMBLERS *FREE* PICK: $500 CLEMSON - ALABAMA OVER 50 -110

VINNY THE GAMBLERS *VIP* PICK: $1,500 CLEMSON VS ALABAMA *WISEGUY TOP BET"

 (GET ACCESS NOW ' SIGN UP HERE)

 

CFB CHAMPIONSHIP TEASERS

BOB's *TEASER* $600 ALABAMA +1/2 :: BAMA/CLEMSON OVER 43 (7PT TEASER ' TIES REDUCE) -125

JLB's *TEASER* $800 CLEMSON +13.5 :: BAMA/CLEMSON OVER 43 (7PT TEASE ' TIES REDUCE) -125

 


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It's the man they love to "HATE" - Started from the bottom in the sports world with Boomer & Carton (WFAN in NY) giving picks at an accuracy rate that...



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