NFL : IBN Incarcerated Picks - Divisional Round Saturday
posted Jan 16 2016, 07:52AM
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Picks, Wildcard Week Saturday Edition : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks - Picks / Analysis

NFL Football - Playoffs Edition

*2015 NFL Season Record: 88-77-4 +$3,267

*2014 NFL Season + Playoffs Record: 98-86-6 +$15,568

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob

Co Write-Up via David Loret (@doc_Spoon on Twitter)

 

Kansas City Chiefs

@ New England Patriots

Vegas Lines

Line : NE -5 (-104)

Total : O/U 44 (-105/-105)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

The Chiefs will be carrying an 11-game winning streak into Gillette Stadium when they face the Patriots in the AFC Divisional Round on Saturday.

Kansas City is currently riding the league’s longest winning streak and the team is certainly hot at the right time, as it is just one win away from reaching the AFC Championship. The Chiefs went into Houston last week and drubbed the Texans, winning 30-0 as three-point road favorites. The Patriots, meanwhile, are coming off of a much-needed bye week. New England limped into the postseason, losing both SU and ATS on the road against the Jets and Dolphins in Weeks 16 and 17. The Chiefs and Patriots have met just once in the past three seasons and Kansas City came out on top in that game, winning 41-14 as a three-point home underdog on Sep. 29, 2014. The Patriots are, however, 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS when playing the Chiefs in New England since 1992. There are a few interesting trends heading into this highly anticipated game. For Kansas City, the team is a remarkable 9-0 ATS off two or more consecutive Unders over the past two seasons. The Chiefs are also 6-0 ATS against AFC East division opponents over the past three seasons. The Patriots, however, are 18-6 ATS after being outgained by 150+ total yards in their previous game since 1992. WR Jeremy Maclin (Ankle) is questionable for Kansas City after being injured against Houston last round. For the Patriots, WR Julian Edelman (Foot) is expected to play but DE Chandler Jones (Abdominal), LB Dont’a Hightower (Knee) and T Sebastian Vollmer (Leg) are questionable.

The Chiefs are hot coming into this game on Saturday and they will be extremely confident after the way they took care of the Texans in Houston a week ago. Kansas City didn’t allow a single point in that game and forced five turnovers as well. That type of defense can win you a Super Bowl and the Chiefs will now look to slow down Tom Brady and the Patriots. Offensively, Kansas City pounded the ball. The Chiefs rushed for 141 yards and a touchdown, and it was Spencer Ware who really made the difference. Ware was the one that found the end zone for the team and he rushed for 67 yards on 18 carries in the game. He’ll need to get it going against New England on Saturday. Alex Smith, meanwhile, will just be looking to avoid mistakes in this game. He was 17-for-22 with 190 yards, one touchdown and one pick against Houston. He’ll need to be even better on Saturday, as a pick can cost his team with Tom Brady playing for the opposing offense. One guy that will need to really play well is Travis Kelce. Kelce had eight catches for 128 yards against the Texans and will be in for an even bigger role if Jeremy Maclin is unable to go in this one. Kansas City does not have many options in the passing game and will struggle to throw if Kelce can’t make plays.

The Patriots struggled down the stretch, but this is still the team to beat until proven otherwise. Tom Brady is going to need to get his act together in this game, as he threw for just one touchdown over the final two weeks of the regular season. If New England is going to win then Brady will need to have a big game for his team. One thing that should help him is the return of Julian Edelman, who has not played since Nov. 15. Edelman has been dealing with a foot injury, but Brady will be stoked to have his top receiver back. He had caught 61 balls for 692 yards and seven touchdowns in nine games this season and he should be able to make a huge impact in this one. Defensively, this team is going to need to find a way to stop the run. The ground game is the Chiefs’ bread and butter, so New England can really make things difficult on Kansas City by limiting any big gains up the middle. It should not be a problem for the Patriots either, as the team allowed just 98.8 YPG on the ground this season (9th in NFL).

 

Key Trends

  • Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after allowing less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
  • Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • Under is 6-1 in Chiefs last 7 Saturday games.
  • Patriots are 0-4-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Over is 5-0-1 in Patriots last 6 Saturday games.
  • Over is 5-0-1 in Patriots last 6 Divisional Playoffs games.
  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

 

Extra Points

1. Kansas City TE Travis Kelce reeled in eight passes for 128 yards versus Houston, with the latter total trumping his combined production from the previous three weeks.

2. The Patriots rebounded after dropping a 41-14 decision to the Chiefs last season to win 13 of their next 15 games and capture the Super Bowl title.

3. New England won its previous two playoff games against teams riding double-digit winning streaks, besting Pittsburgh in 2004 and San Diego two years later.

 

 

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INCARCERATED BOB'S *FREE* PICK: CHIEFS +6 *PT BUY* -130
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Green Bay Packers

@ Arizona Cardinals

Vegas Lines

Line : ARI -7 (-118)

Total : O/U 49.5 (-102/-108)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

The Packers will be looking to steal a spot in the NFC Championship when they face the Cardinals in Arizona on Saturday.

The Packers had to face the Redskins in Washington in the first round of the playoffs and Green Bay looked excellent in that one. After a shaky start to the game, the team cruised to a 35-18 victory as a two-point road underdog. The win snapped a two-game losing streak for the Packers and they’ll be hoping that their offense is here to stay after putting up a total of 346 yards against Washington. The Cardinals, meanwhile, will be well rested after earning themselves a bye with their dominant regular season. Arizona did, however, lose 36-6 at home against the Seahawks in Week 17. The Packers and Cardinals should be very familiar with one another, as the two teams met on Dec. 27. The Cardinals dominated in that Week 16 meeting, winning 38-8 as six-point home favorites. They held the Packers to just 178 total yards and forced four turnovers as well. One trend worth noting in this game is that the Packers are 65-40 ATS when playing against a winning team in the second half of the season since 1992. That won’t faze the Cardinals, though, as Arizona is 17-8 ATS against conference opponents over the past two seasons. One injury worth noting is that WR Davante Adams (Knee) is listed as questionable for the Packers. Unfortunately for Green Bay, the expectation is that he will not play.

The Packers’ offense finally woke up against the Redskins last week and Aaron Rodgers seemed to have regained some swagger in the process. Rodgers threw for 210 yards, two touchdowns and no picks in the game. He looked very confident in the second half and must now face a team that really gave him trouble in Week 16. Rodgers completed just 53.6% of his passes for 151 yards, one touchdown and one pick in that one. He also lost two fumbles in that game and the Packers will need their offensive line to play better on Saturday, as Rodgers was under way too much pressure in that game. Another thing that Green Bay will need to do is get the ground game going. The Packers rushed for 141 yards and two touchdowns against Washington in the wild card game. Their success on the ground really opened up the offense and both Eddie Lacy and James Starks contributed. Defensively, the Packers will need to dig in and slow down one of the best passing offenses in the league.

The Cardinals were one of the best teams in the league on both sides of the ball, putting up 30.6 PPG (2nd in NFL) and allowing just 19.6 PPG (t-7th in NFL). Arizona rushed for 119.8 YPG (8th in NFL) and threw for 288.5 YPG (2nd in NFL), displaying a balance offensively that few teams have. If this team is going to keep winning games and achieve its goal of winning the Super Bowl then Carson Palmer is going to need to come up big in the postseason. Palmer was solid against the Packers in Week 16, throwing for 265 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Those touchdowns found Palmer’s two favorite targets, John Brown and Larry Fitzgerald. Both guys will need to get themselves free in this game. David Johnson may be the x-factor offensively, though. The rookie rushed for 39 yards and a touchdown on nine carries against Green Bay last meeting and will be counted on to produce in this one as well. He is powerful and could really help the Cardinals by wearing out the Packers defense. On defense, Arizona must put pressure on Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers’ has had a lot of trouble dealing with the blitz this season and the Cardinals will need to make sure he isn’t comfortable in the pocket on Saturday.

 

Key Trends

  • Under is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games after allowing less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.
  • Under is 4-0 in Packers last 4 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game.
  • Packers are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home.
  • Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 playoff home games.
  • Over is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 playoff home games.
  • Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
  • Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Arizona.

 

Extra Points

1. Arizona LB Dwight Freeney and DL Calais Campbell combined for 5.5 sacks in the first meeting.

2. Rodgers threw for 423 yards and four touchdowns in his first career playoff start - a 51-45 loss at Arizona in January 2010.

3. Floyd has recorded five 100-yard performances in his last eight games, including six catches for 111 yards against the Packers.

 

 

IBN CAPPER'S UPDATED PICKS ON THIS GAME

 

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PLAYOFF TEASERS UPDATED
 
BOB's $800 *TEASER*: CARDINALS -PK :: CHIEFS +12 (7PT TEASER ' TIES REDUCE) -125 
 
JLB's $500 *TEASER*: PATS/CHIEFS UNDER 51 :: CARDS/PACKERS UNDER 56.5 (7PT TEASER ' TIES REDUCE) -125
 
 

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Incarcerated Bob
It's the man they love to "HATE" - Started from the bottom in the sports world with Boomer & Carton (WFAN in NY) giving picks at an accuracy rate that...



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