NFL : IBN Incarcerated Picks - Conference Championship
posted Jan 24 2016, 08:01AM
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Picks, Playoff Edition : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks - Picks / Analysis

NFL Football - Playoffs Edition

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New England Patriots

@ Denver Broncos

Vegas Lines

Line : NE -3 (-113)

Total : O/U 44.5 (-107/-103)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

Peyton Manning and the Broncos host Tom Brady and the Patriots in what could be the final postseason matchup between the two legendary quarterbacks on Sunday.

The Patriots hosted the red-hot Chiefs in the Divisional Round and came away with a 27-20 victory as six-point home favorites. New England had lost its final two regular season games before playing that game, but the team put any concerns to bed with the win over Kansas City. The Broncos, meanwhile, hosted the Steelers on Sunday and came away with a 23-16 win as seven-point home favorites. Denver has won three straight games and has allowed just 20 or less points in five of its past six. The team is playing stifling defense and actually was able to win against Pittsburgh thanks to a forced fumble in the fourth quarter. The Patriots and Broncos have already met once this season and the Broncos won that game 30-24 as 2.5-point road underdogs. The teams have, however, split victories both SU and ATS over the past three seasons. Favoring the Patriots in this game is the fact that Tom Brady is 11-5 SU in his 16 meetings with Peyton Manning in his career. New England is also 9-2 ATS after gaining 300 or more passing yards in its previous game over the past two seasons. LB Jerod Mayo (Shoulder) is the newest Patriots player to be lost for the season. The Broncos, meanwhile, will be entering this one at relatively close to full strength.

The Patriots have pretty much abandoned the run at this point in the season and it’s now going to be Tom Brady that will need to win this game for New England. Brady was brilliant against the Chiefs in the Divisional Round, going 28-for-42 with 302 yards, two touchdowns and no picks. He also added a rushing touchdown for the Patriots as well. One big bonus for New England’s quarterback was that Julian Edelman returned from injury. Edelman looked as good as new in the win, catching 10 passes for 100 yards. His ability to make plays allowed Rob Gronkowski to run his routes with a little less attention than he usually gets and it really helped. Gronkowski caught seven passes for 83 yards and two touchdowns against Kansas City. Him and Edelman will now need to get open often against a very good Denver defense in order to win on Sunday. Brady should have little trouble throwing it, though. He had 280 yards, three touchdowns and zero interceptions the last time he faced this defense and that was in the snow. One thing that will need to happen for the Patriots is that the defense must find a way to stop the run. The Broncos rushed for 179 yards and three touchdowns the last time these teams met and that can’t happen again. Denver struggles to pass the ball and the Patriots could really give themselves a good chance of winning by slowing down the running game.

The Broncos defeated the Steelers in the Divisional Round, but it was a rather uninspiring win for the team. Offensively, Denver is going to need to be a lot better in order to defeat this high-powered Patriots team. The guy that will really need to improve is Peyton Manning. Manning struggled against Pittsburgh, going 21-for-37 with 222 yard, no touchdowns and no interceptions. Denver will need him to throw for at least a touchdown or two on Sunday. The Broncos are also going to need a big game from their running back duo of C.J. Anderson and Ronnie Hillman. The two combined for 108 yards and a touchdown against Pittsburgh last week, but they also lit up the Patriots earlier in the season. In that victory for the Broncos, Anderson and Hillman combined for 172 yards and three touchdowns. If they can find similar success against New England on Sunday then the Denver defense should be able to put the team in a position to win. The Broncos are allowing just 18.5 PPG (4th in NFL) and have been extremely dominant as of late. They’ll need to find a way to slow down Tom Brady on Sunday, though, and that is no easy task for anybody.

Key Trends

  • Over is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 playoff games.
  • Over is 5-1 in Patriots last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 road games.
  • Broncos are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
  • Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 games in January.
  • Broncos are 1-5-1 ATS in their last 7 playoff games.
  • Home team is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
  • Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
  • Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 meetings in Denver.

 

Extra Points

1. New England is bidding for its ninth trip to the Super Bowl, which would break a tie with Pittsburgh and Dallas for the most all time.

2. Denver, which is 7-2 at home in AFC title games, can tie the Patriots, Steelers and Cowboys for most Super Bowl appearances with a victory Sunday.

3. Brady's 22 postseason wins are the most by any quarterback in league history.

 

 

IBN CAPPER'S UPDATED PICKS ON THIS GAME

 

JLB'S PREMIUM *FREE* PICK: $500 BRONCOS / PATRIOTS UNDER 45 -110

JLB'S PREMIUM *VIP* PICK:

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INCARCERATED BOB'S *FREE* PICK:

$1,000 SEE TEASER BELOW
 

INCARCERATED BOB'S *VIP* PICKS:

$5,000 PATRIOTS @ BRONCOS "BIG BOY BET" 

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VINNY THE GAMBLERS *FREE* PICK: $500 BRONCOS +2.5 (1ST HALF) -110

VINNY THE GAMBLERS *VIP* PICK:

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Arizona Cardinals

@ Carolina Panthers

Vegas Lines

Line : CAR -3 (-110)

Total : O/U 47 (-103/-107)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

The Cardinals and Panthers will be playing for a spot in the Super Bowl when the teams meet in Carolina on Sunday.

The Cardinals are coming off of a wild win over the Packers in the Divisional Round and will now be looking to ride the momentum of that victory into their meeting with the Panthers. Arizona allowed a Hail Mary touchdown pass from Aaron Rodgers to Jeff Janis in the closing seconds of regulation last game and ended up winning on a shovel pass from Carson Palmer to Larry Fitzgerald in the early stages of overtime. The Panthers, meanwhile, did not have much of a challenge in their Divisional Round win over the Seahawks. Carolina jumped out to a 31-0 lead and ended up winning 31-24, as the team took its foot off the gas in the second half of the game. The Panthers will now need to regain their focus for their meeting with Arizona on Sunday. The last time these teams met actually happened to be in the postseason and the Panthers won that game 27-16 as 5.5-point favorites. Carson Palmer was, however, injured and the Cardinals played that game with Ryan Lindley under center. One thing that is heavily favoring Arizona in this game is that the team is 30-11 ATS when playing against a top-level team (Win Pct.>75%) since 1992. The Panthers are, however, an insane 7-0 ATS in games with a line of +3 to -3 this season. Arizona did not suffer any additional injuries against Green Bay, but the Panthers are likely to be without DE Jared Allen (Foot) in this game.

If the Cardinals are going to defeat the Panthers on Sunday then Carson Palmer is going to need to have an unbelievable game for Arizona. Palmer threw for 349 yards with three touchdowns in the win over the Packers in the Divisional Round, but he also threw three picks in that game. He’ll need to take better care of the football, especially with Josh Norman playing corner for Carolina. Something Palmer should do in this one is get rid of the ball quickly and find Larry Fitzgerald often. Fitzgerald was straight up dominant against the Packers last game, hauling in eight catches for 176 yards and a touchdown. He has now caught a touchdown in each of the past three games for Arizona. Another guy that will need to play well for this team is David Johnson. Johnson rushed 15 times for 35 yards against Green Bay and also added six catches for 43 yards. He will need to be more effective between the tackles or it will be tough for the Cardinals to get things going in the passing game. Arizona uses the play action often and Johnson must put some fear into the Panthers defense in this one. Defensively, the Cardinals have their work cut out for them with Cam Newton in town. They should be up for the challenge, though, as they allowed just 19.6 PPG (t-7th in NFL) this season.

The Panthers have consistently beaten up on their opponents this season, but things are going to get tough against a very good Cardinals team on Sunday. Carolina will need to play a complete game in this one, and that means it can’t let up at any point in the game. The team has shown that it can have lapses of poor play and last week’s second half against Seattle was a mess for the Panthers. As always, this Carolina team is only going to go as far as Cam Newton takes it. Newton was 16-for-22 with 161 yards, one touchdown and no picks against the Seahawks last week. He’ll need to do a bit more in this one, but it would really help his team if he can continue to play mistake-free football. The reason that Newton was able to take a backseat against Seattle was that Jonathan Stewart was running wild in the game. In his return from injury, Stewart rushed 19 times for 106 yards and two touchdowns against the Seahawks. He showed serious explosiveness on one 59-yard run and it would be huge if he can get it going against Arizona. Greg Olsen, who had six catches for 77 yards and a touchdown against the Seahawks, will also need to show up for the Panthers in this game. Defensively, the Panthers will need to shut down the Cardinals’ passing game in this one. That shouldn’t be too much of an issue, as Carolina allowed just 21 touchdowns this season (t-7th in NFL).

 

Key Trends

  • Under is 4-0 in Cardinals last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Cardinals are 1-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 6-1 in Cardinals last 7 vs. NFC.
  • Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.
  • Over is 5-0 in Panthers last 5 games following a ATS win.
  • Panthers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games on grass.
  • Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.

 

Extra Points

1. The game marks the first time Heisman Trophy-winning quarterbacks will start against each other in the postseason.

2. Arizona is 7-1 away from home and has won five straight road games.

3. The Panthers are bidding to become the ninth team in league history to reach the Super Bowl with one loss or less.

 

IBN CAPPER'S UPDATED PICKS ON THIS GAME

 

JLB'S PREMIUM *FREE* PICK: $600 SEE TEASER BELOW

JLB'S PREMIUM *VIP* PICK: $2,000 CARDINALS @ PANTHERS "CASHOUT GAME OF MONTH"

(SIGN UP HERE FOR BEST BET ' PICK EMAILED ASAP

 

INCARCERATED BOB'S *FREE* PICK: $1,000 SEE TEASER BELOW

INCARCERATED BOB'S *VIP* PICK: $10,000 PANTHERS VS CARDINALS "BIG BOY BET"

*GAME OF YEAR*

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VINNY THE GAMBLERS *FREE* PICK:

VINNY THE GAMBLERS *VIP* PICK: $2,000 PANTHERS VS CARDINALS "WISEGUY BET"

 (GET ACCESS NOW ' SIGN UP HERE)

 

PLAYOFF TEASERS UPDATED
 
BOB's NFL $1,000 *FREE 10PT TEASER*
BRONCOS/PATS OVER 35 :: BRONCOS +13 :: PANTHERS/CARDS OVER 37 (TIES REDUCE) -115 
 
JLB'S NFL $600 *FREE 10PT TEASER*
PATS/BRONCOS UNDER 55 :: CARDINALS +13 :: CARDS/PANTHERS UNDER 57.5 (TIES REDUCE) -115
 
 

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**All Lines are from 5Dimes & Bookmaker (5Dimes.eu / Bookmaker.eu)**

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Incarcerated Bob
It's the man they love to "HATE" - Started from the bottom in the sports world with Boomer & Carton (WFAN in NY) giving picks at an accuracy rate that...



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