IBN: 2016 NBA Finals Preview
posted Jun 02 2016, 12:15PM
posted in NBA, Betting

Round 2! Warriors and Cavaliers are squaring off once again ... But this time, it's a record breaking Golden State team just coming off an emotional victory over the Thunder who will try to defend its title against LeBron James and the Cavs. Fresh off a 12-2 run in the East, Cleveland might be coming to the Finals relatively untested and 100% healthy.

So Warriors or Cavs ?

2016 NBA FINALS Predictions : IBN Presents Incarcerated Picks - Picks / Analysis

*2015-2016 NBA Season & Playoffs Record: 97-77-0 +$18,336

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob

Co Write-Up via David Loret (@doc_Spoon on Twitter)

 

Golden State Warriors vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Vegas Lines (Game 1)

Line : GSW -6 (-101)

Total : O/U 209.5 (-105/-105)

 

Bob & Dave's Lowdown

For as much talk about what has changed for the Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers since they met in the NBA Finals last year, even more has stayed the same. No one is heavily disputing LeBron James’ notion that the Cavaliers are “better built” for the 2016 finals after losing in six games last year by virtue of having both Kyrie Irving and Kyle Love healthy. Cleveland is undoubtedly improved. So are the Warriors.It’s with those dual developments that the NBA Finals odds arrive at a virtually identical spot as last year ahead of game 1, which airs at 6 p.m. tonight on ABC. Golden State enters as a minus-210 (risking $2.10 to win $1) favorite to win the series with Cleveland coming back at plus-180 (risking $1 to win $1.80).

In 2015, the Warriors were minus-220 in the Finals with the Cavaliers at plus-190. On both occasions, the Cavaliers narrowed the odds from what they would have been coming into the playoffs with a more impressive path to the Finals. Golden State had the historic regular season, setting the record with 73 wins, but Cleveland’s postseason is only a notch below. The Cavaliers have gone 12-2 straight-up with a 12.6 average margin of victory, which ranks fifth all-time. They’ve actually proven slightly less profitable than their opponent, as the Cavaliers’ are 9-5 against the spread to the Warriors’ 11-6. But Golden State has already eclipsed its over/under 5.5 losses in the playoffs, with its point differential falling off more than 4 points per game from the regular season at plus-6.4. Whereas the defining moment of Cleveland’s postseason was its 10-game winning streak before dropping two in Toronto, Golden State’s was climbing out of a 3-1 hole against Oklahoma City last round.

The Thunder were as high as a minus-275 favorite to advance to the Finals after Game 4 last week, meaning the Warriors’ rally was one of the only true surprises of the playoffs so far. It’s fitting that both conference’s top-seeded teams wound up in the Finals for the first time in eight years, because these playoffs have been among the chalkiest of all-time from a betting perspective. Favorites have gone 47-32 against the spread. Golden State benefited from the only two series upsets, facing Portland and Oklahoma City instead of the Los Angeles Clippers and San Antonio. The Clippers and the Spurs projected to have tighter odds before the playoffs began.

The Thunder are still power-rated much higher than anyone the Cavaliers have faced in months. Deciding how, or if, to rectify the discrepancy in competition encountered by Golden State and Cleveland largely informs which side a bettor will take. Well, that and which team he or she thinks will shoot better. Golden State once felt like a given in that department, but the postseason has complicated matters. The Warriors have shot more poorly on both 2- and 3-pointers, with the knee strain Stephen Curry suffered in the first round likely the source of the dip in effectiveness. The Cavaliers have gone the exact opposite, raising their 3-point shooting percentage from .362 in the regular season to .434 in the postseason. Love, Irving, J.R. Smith and Channing Frye are combining to connect on an obscene 47.2 percent of their attempts beyond the arc. While determining what team has the offensive advantage is debatable, the defensive edge is much clearer. Golden State gives up a somewhat significant 1.4 points less per 100 possessions than Cleveland. It’s a big reason why the betting lines lean toward the Warriors. Just like last year.

Key Trends

  • Warriors are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 home games.
  • Cavaliers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven versus Pacific Division opponents.
  • Cavaliers are 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings.
  • Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Golden State.
  • Under is 4-0 in Warriors last 4 versus Eastern Conference opponents
  • The UNDER is 3-1 in Golden State’s last four playoff games and 5-2 in Golden State’s last seven playoff games.
  • The UNDER is 4-0 in Golden State’s last four games when playing on two days of rest.
  • The UNDER has hit in three of Cleveland’s last five playoff games.  In addition, the UNDER is 6-2 in Cleveland’s last eight games when playing on three or more days of rest.

 

Extra Points

1. The Warriors won the two regular-season meetings -- both coming before Blatt was fired as Cavaliers' coach.

2. Irving is averaging 24.3 points and has topped 20 points in 12 of Cleveland's 14 postseason games.

3. Golden State may opt to start veteran SF Andre Iguodala over younger SF Harrison Barnes in the opener just as it did in Game 7 of the Thunder series.

 

 

IBN CAPPER'S UPDATED PICKS ON THE FINALS AND/OR GAME 1

 

JLB'S PREMIUM *FREE* PICK: $500 CAVS +3.5 (1H) -110 

*PROP MEMBERS BET* $800 GSW PLAYER PROP -GET PICK NOW-

JLB'S PREMIUM *VIP* PICK: $3,000 CAVALIERS @ WARRIORS (FULL GAME)

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INCARCERATED BOB'S *FREE* PICK: $500 KEVIN LOVE OVER 2.5 (3PT'S MADE) -115

INCARCERATED BOB'S *VIP* PICKS: $2,500 GSW VS CAVS "BIG BOY BET" ((READY NOW))

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RANDIZZLE'S *FREE* PICK: $500 WARRIORS -1 (3RD QUARTER) -115

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IBN SLEEPERS

Cleveland Cavaliers

Kevin Love : Funny thing about the Cavs series against the Raptors is that each game in which Kevin Love was bad (game 3 and 4, he went 5-23 from the field and 3-11 in 3pt-range in those two games combined) ... Cleveland lost. And this time he is going against Draymond Green who might be a pretty good defender himself or at least that's what you are supposed to be when you are the runner-up in the Defensive Player of the Year Award, right ? Both his offensive and defensive skills will be tested in the Finals and he (not LeBron, not Kyrie, not Steph, not Klay 'cause we all know that they will put out their usual numbers) might be the biggest X Factor and sleeper of the series. And there might be a question of toughness in here too ... In the Toronto Series, he didn't get more than 5 rebound in a game until Game 6, which is a concern knowing that he averaged more than 10 per game before that.

JR Smith : We all know that JR loves shooting as much as he loves partying. And we also know that he can get pretty hot from 3pt-range. He has the potential to explode at any moment in any game of the Finals ... We are just not sure if it will be positive of not.

Golden State Warriors

André Iguodala : Can the reigning NBA Finals MVP be considered a sleeper ? Considering the fact that he isn't even really a starter this year (just like last year ..) and all the hype surrounding the trio of Draymond, Klay and Steph, he certainly does. Known for being a LeBron-stopper and also a pretty good shooter himself, there's a pretty good chance that he will be once again one of the main reasons of the Warriors' success in this year's finals. Back to back NBA Finals MVP ? Maybe. But a definitive sleeper.

Marreese Speight : He might be the best player on the Warriors second unit. More efficient with the ball than Andrew Bogut, he can get the Warriors going scoring points in limited minutes as he has shown in game 2, 3 and 5 of the Western Conference Finals against OKC. He is the kind of player able to keep his time alive if the starters are cold. Again, that's what he did against OKC.


 

IBN SERIES PREDICTIONS

Incarcerated Bob : RISK $1,000 CAVALIERS IN 6 GAMES +190

Randizzle : $1,000 WARRIORS IN 7 GAMES -220

JLB Sports Info : $1,000 WARRIORS IN 7 GAMES -220

Vinny The Gambler : RISK $2,000 CAVALIERS IN 7 GAMES +190

David : WARRIORS IN 5 GAMES

 

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**All Lines are from 5Dimes & Bookmaker (5Dimes.eu / Bookmaker.eu)**

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Incarcerated Bob
It's the man they love to "HATE" - Started from the bottom in the sports world with Boomer & Carton (WFAN in NY) giving picks at an accuracy rate that...



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