2016 Belmont Stakes Preview
posted Jun 07 2016, 01:54PM
story by Pat Infante
posted in MLB, Betting

Preview of the 148th Belmont Stakes

Betting Belmont is all about the value...

Betting The Belmont Stakes is the complete opposite of the Preakness its low risk high reward betting and it all about the value. The truth is none of these horses are bred or trained for a mile and a half. It is that reason that makes teh Belmont so hard to predict. Sure Exaggerator is really a horse that just keeps getting better and better. He is a very deserving favorite but with Nyquist sidelined due to a fever you are not going to get any type of value on betting him to win. For me bettting Belmont is all about the value, its one of the few races really where any horse entered can win. Below is a small profile of each contender and what I deem to be the value line for each horse. Remeber low risk, high reward is the name of the Belmont game. 

 

 12-1 Governor Malibu comes into this race off a 2nd place finish in the Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont on May 14th. He has never raced in a race over 1 1/8 miles. He seems to be a 'wise guy' horse but I just don't see it. Value Line 25-1

 

 6-1 Destin finished 6th in the Kentucky Derby after a tough trip. He is lightly raced this year and will be coming into Belmont as a fresh horse. Pedigree suggest he could be capable of handling the mile and a half well. I think he is one of only a couple capable of upsetting Exaggerator. Value Line 10-1

 

 8-1 Cherry Wine ran a really nice 2nd in the Preakness. His beyers have increased in all 6 of his last races. I would not pick him to win this race but he surely can finish in the top 3. Value Line 15-1


 10-1 Suddenbreakingnews is certainly a horse with upset potential. Ran a really good Kentucky Derby and came flying late to finish 5th despite not having the greatest trip. He is a horse I will include in exotics and will be a factor in this race. In a low risk high reward betting situation I may even opt to put $20 bucks on him to win if that 10-1 hold up. Value Line 8-1

 

 5-1 Stradivari ran a very solid 4th in the Preakness off of a very wide trip. I must admit I did not give him much of a shot in the Preakness but he ran better than I thought. He should be forwardly placed in this race. I really think the 5-1 morning line and the fact that he is the 2nd choice is somewhat of a head scratcher. Although he is capable of pulling off the upset. Value Line 10-1

 

 30-1 Gettysburg was entered for no reason other to be a rabbit and pace setter to set teh race up for Exaggerator. Before Gettysburg this race hhad absolutly no pace and would not have set up well for a closer like Exaggerator. You see, Winstar farms owns Gettysburg and they also purchased the breeding rights to Exaggerator so they would love to add a Belmont win on to Exaggerators resume to boost his breeding value. This horse has no chance to win.  Value Line 99-1

 

 30-1 Seeking the Soul is a toss. He has not faced anything near this level of competition nor has he run a beyer to suggest he can compete in this class. Value Line 99-1

 

 30-1 Forever d'Oro has the pedigree to suggest he can run forever. But can he run in this class of horses?... Value Line 50-1

 

 30-1 Trojan Nation is still searching for his 1st win and was a non factor in the Kentuckly Derby. At least he has raced in this class before. Value Line 45-1

 

 20-1 Lani is a horse that could sneak up on you in this race. I would definitly consider him underneath in exotics. He runs one speed but runs all day and maybe he just keeps chugging along and passing a bunch of tired horses down the long Belmont Stretch.  Value Line 30-1

 

 9-5 Exaggerator is the deserving favorite and a likely winner. However the Belmont is as unpredictable of a race as you can ask for and at 9-5 that is terrible value. He is a horse to place all over yoru exotics tickets. He ran a really good Preakness running down Nyquist, who just ran too fast and set an absolute blazing pace in the Preakness. Exaggerator has gotten better each and every race this year and his sire Curlin ran 2nd in the Belmont in 2007. Value Line 4-1

 

 20-1 Brody's Cause I have to question if he is just fast enough to contend in this crop however his pedigree looks very good as far as him lasting the difference. His high beyer of 91 leads me to belive he is although a good horse a cut below in an already weak crop. It should be noted he has beaten Exaggerator not once but twice. Exaggerator has improved a ton since then but still worth noting. Value Line 25-1

 

 10-1 Creator  had a rough trip and finished a dismal 13th in the Kentucky Derby. He is anopther closer but if you are looking at closers in this race you got to think Exaggerator and/ or Suddenbreakingnews. Value Line 30-1

 

Betting Strategy

I know I keep saying it but for me its all about value, value value. I will keep an eye on the odds through out the day and maybe place one $20 WIN bet on Suddenbreakingnews or a long shot. If Destin gets above 10-1 I may even consider putting a little on him but all in all I do think Exaggerator can win this race so Im not going to bet that heavy. I will be placing a trifecta bet and maybe play around with a couple of long odds exactas becuase if Exaggerator does not finish in the top 2 the exacta can pay well. 

Trifecta 4,5,11, W/ 2,4,5,8,11 W/ 2,4,5,8,10,11,12 = Bet cost $60 per $1

Exacta Box 3,4,10 = Bet Cost $6 per $1

Superfecta 4 w/ 3,5,10,12 w/ 3,5,10,12 w/ 11 = Bet cost $12 per $1

.10 Cent Super 2,4 w/ 2,4,5,8,11 w/ 2,4,5,8,10,11, w/ 2,4,5,8,10,11 = Bet cost $9.60

Stay up to date with the live odds click here

UPDATE 6/10/16 8:00pm: DESTIN up to 16/1 in early betting. The value there is worth a shot for $20 if those kind of odds remain true. Same could be said for STRADIVARI. Id watch the odds on both of these through out the day. Could be good value if you looking to take a shot against Exaggerator. 

ODDS AT 24 HOURS OUT

1 Governor Malibu 13-1

2 Destin 16-1

3 Cherry Wine 7-1

4 Suddenbreakingnews 4-1

5 Stradivari 12-1

6 Gettysburg 64-1

7 Seeking the Soul 84-1

8 Forever d'Oro 99-1

9 Trojan Nation 67-1

10 Lani 13-1

11 Exaggerator EVEN

12 Brody's Cause 24-1

13 Creator 21-1

 

 

Full Card Horses I Like

Race 1 - 2,3,5

Race 2 - 3,7,9

Race 3 - 4,5,6

Race 4 - 5,7,9,10 - I REALLY LIKE THE 7 IN THIS RACE

Race 5 - 2,5,7

Race 6 - 2,3,7

Race 7 - 1,3,9

Race 8 - 1, 10

Race 9 - 5,8

Race 10 - 2,4,10

 

 

Pat Infante
I am from the Jersey Shore. Not the TV show, the actual geographical area. I have been in the car business for over 13 years. Being in the car busines...



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