NFL : IBN Picks - NFL Week 15
posted Dec 18 2016, 10:20AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Sunday Week 15

*2016 NFL Season Record: 8-5-0 +$2,650

*2015 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 96-85-4 +$2,722

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

 

Indianapolis Colts @ Minnesota Vikings

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line :MIN  -5 (-110)

Total : O/U 45.5 (-110/-110)

The 6-7 Colts are coming off a 22-17 loss to Houston as 6.5-point home favorite that drops them to third place in the AFC South. The Vikings remain one game back in the NFC wild-card hunt following last week's 25-16 win in Jacksonville as 3-point favorites.

The Colts have lost two of three overall, both straight up and against the spread. The good thing abount Indty after a loss this season are 5-0 SU and ATS in its past five. The Colts are also undefeated in three straight on the road, all as betting underdogs, averaging 35.3 points per game in those contests.

Last week's SU win over the Jaguars was just the second in the past eight for Minnesota. The Vikings have lost two of three on home turf during that stretch, and have failed to score more than 16 points in five of their past eight games. Though covering in three of four.

Adrian Peterson will return to action after tearing his meniscus in Week 2. The Colts have a bottom nine rush defense and are coming off a game where they allowed 185 rush yards. A healthy AP could make a significant difference and put up some big numbers.

 

Key Trends

The total has gone UNDER in three of the Colts' last four games against the Vikings
The Vikings are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games against the AFC
The Colts are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 games on the road after covering in their two most recent road games

 

Indianapolis Colts

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing Minnesota

 

Minnesota Vikings

Minnesota is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games
Minnesota is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 12 games
Minnesota is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Minnesota is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games at home
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Indianapolis

 

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Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers

4:25

Vegas Lines:

Line : OAK -2.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 49 (-110/-110).

 

 

 

Oakland has had no problem cashing spread bets in recent trips to San Diego. In the Raiders’ past seven tilts at Qualcomm Stadium, they’re a scorching 6-1 ATS. Jack Del Rio’s crew are 8-1 ATS in their previous nine road affairs as well.

 The Chargers are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games after a loss, which is the position they’re in after losing to the Panthers 28-16 last week.

The Chargers have been one of the best OVER bets in the NFL this year, as eight of their 12 contests have gone above the closing total. The number of 51 is high, but Rivers and Oakland quarterback Derek Carr can absolutely light it up and both defenses have been suspect. San Diego is 29th in the NFL in points allowed (26.7).

Key Trends

The Raiders are 3-10 SU in their last 13 games on the road against the Chargers
The Chargers are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games as an underdog of 3.0 or less
The total has gone UNDER in 22 of the Raiders' last 29 games on the road against the Chargers


Oakland Raiders

Oakland is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games
Oakland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games
Oakland is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games when playing San Diego
Oakland is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing San Diego
Oakland is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Diego
Oakland is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against San Diego
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Oakland's last 16 games when playing on the road against San Diego

 

San Diego Chargers

San Diego is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
San Diego is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games
San Diego is 5-14 ATS in its last 19 games at home
San Diego is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games at home
San Diego is 5-10 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Oakland
San Diego is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing Oakland
San Diego is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against Oakland
San Diego is 10-3 SU in its last 13 games when playing at home against Oakland
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of San Diego's last 16 games when playing at home against Oakland

 

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New England Patriots @ Denver Broncos

8:30

Vegas Lines:

Line : NE -3 (-110)

Total : O/U 43 (-110/-110)

 

New England is 1-6 SU and ATS on the road vs the Broncos since 2005. This is significant because it’s the most SU road losses New England has against any team on the road during that span and is also tied for the most ATS road losses vs any team during that span.

The Broncos are the only team that Tom Brady’s played more than three times that he has a losing record against (5-6 SU).

With the Broncos opening as an underdog in the 3-point range, bettors will be interested to know that Denver is on a four-game SU and ATS winning streak as a home underdog. Denver is a great bet as an underdog over the past few seasons, posting a 9-2-1 ATS mark in its last 12 games as a dog. In each of the games that the Broncos covered in during that stretch, they also won outright.

Give consideration to the UNDER, as the teams have combined to go UNDER in 14 of their last 20 games. Both defenses are allowing fewer than 19 points per game this season, while they’ve combined to allow an average of just 17.2 over their last three games.

 

Key Trends

The Patriots are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games on the road against teams with winning records
The total has gone UNDER in six of the Broncos' last eight games against teams with winning records
Tom Brady has 15 TDs and 0 INTs on the road this season

 

New England Patriots

New England is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games
New England is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
New England is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New England's last 8 games when playing Denver
New England is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
New England is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 12 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver

Denver Broncos

Denver is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games
Denver is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver's last 10 games
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Denver is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games when playing New England
Denver is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing at home against New England
Denver is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 12 games when playing at home against New England
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 6 games when playing at home against New England

 

 

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