Preakness 142 Preview
posted May 17 2017, 07:57PM
story by Pat Infante
posted in All Sports, Betting

Preview of the 142nd Preakness Stakes. 

Follow me on Twitter @PInfante97

 

  Multiplier won the Illinois Derby and ran some impressively quick closing fractions if your looking to throw a long shot on your tickets he might be the one to surprise and hit the board at a price. The 1 post will help him carve out a nice ground saving trip. A horse north of 15-1 has finished in the top 4 in 14 of 16 Preakness’ this century and 12 years in a row.

 Cloud Computing is another new shooter entering into this race. His last race was a 3rd place finish to Irish War Cry in the Wood Memorial. In the Wood Memorial he broke porrly and was up against a front end speed bias. He is a lightly raced horse who should continue to progress. Trainer Chad Brown has said that he really likes this horse and he has a fantastic pedigree for classic distance. I feel out of the new shooters he may be best to make an impact or hit the board. He is of the Raise A Native sire line that was also in the blood lines of  the top 4 derby finishers and you have to respect that.

  Hence didn’t have a great trip in the Kentucky Derby. He was the ‘wise guy’ horse going into the race and disappointed. He likely was outclassed in the race coming from the Sunland Derby but he did get a bunch of slop thrown back in his face and his trainer mentioned due to that he really never got a chance to run his race. I’d expect a better performance in this race but Im not sure it will be enough to win but he could possibly hit the board at a price.

  Always Dreaming is the Kentucky Derby champion for Todd Pletcher. In the Kentucky Derby he got an absolute perfect trip and rode a favorable inside trip to victory. Some handicappers have used the fact the he had such a great trip as a reason to believe things won’t be as easy in the Preakness. I believe he got such a great trip because this horse breaks terrifically and has tactical speed that is almost push button in that it can be turned on and off to put himself in position to navigate a great trip. Unfortunately the odds you will get on him will not be desireable because it is no secret that tactical speed horses who win the Kentucky Derby make fantastic Preakness plays.

 Classic Empire had a brutal trip in the Kentucky Derby and is Always Dreaming’s biggest threat. He was bumped hard out of the gate and found himself 10 and a half lengths off the lead right in the first ¼ mile. He did manage to regroup and finish 4th in the race but he was losing ground to Always Dreaming in the final ¼ and ended up finishing over 8 lengths behind him. That's quite a gap to make up. I expect him to be closer to the front in this race which could help. I just don’t know if he has the closing kick to keep up with Always Dreaming. If you want to bet against the derby champ you should get 4-1 on him.

 Gunnevera gets a jockey change to Mike Smith when Javier Castellano chose to ride Cloud Computing over this colt. Gunnevera finished 7th in the Kentucky Derby and Im starting to believe he either is a horse that kind of topped out too soon or maybe is wearing down after being one of the most raced horses of this crop. I don’t think the jockey change will make a huge difference and I don’t think the pace projections for this race look too friendly for a closer.

 Term of Art enters the Preakness off a 7th place finish in the Santa Anita Der….. Wait a second, hold on, Term of Art is in the Preakness? Can someone double check this?  He did manage to clunk up and finish 3rd in the San Felipe at 63-1 but came back and was a non factor in the Santa Anita Derby.

 Senior Investment won the Lexington Stakes at Keenland on April 15th after a disappointing 6th in the Louisiana Derby  on April 1st. The horses that came out of the Louisiana Derby (Girvin and Patch) were non factors in Kentucky, so I am tossing this one. 

  Lookin At Lee is a horse that relishes classic distances. He came up the rail to finish 2nd in the Kentucky Derby. I do think he was aided by a favorable rail in the derby but respect his ability running late. I think that the time to make money on him was in the derby and he will be over bet in this race and it would be asking a lot for a repeat performance.

 Conquest Mo Money is expected pace setter. He ran second to Classic Empire in the Arkansas Derby with a career best performance. I expect him to head right to the front and see how long he can carry his speed for. I think he can hang on for a peace because I feel the pace will be moderate to slow as he does not have much competition to push him on the lead. At least until Always Dreaming comes running.

The Likely Winner

 

Always Dreaming will be tough in this race. Favorites that win the derby with the tactical speed he has shown to carve out a good trips usually comeback and win the Preakness. Classic Empire did have a rough start to the Kentucky Derby but Always Dreaming beat him by a wide margin and was extending his lead in the stretch. Always Dreaming has shown a good energy level this week at Pimlico as he has had before the Kentucky Derby. I would not be surprised if he made this Preakness look like Smarty Jones made the 2004 Preakness look. He is my pick to win this race and set us up for an interesting Belmont. Hard to make money with a WIN bet, so you're going to have to play the exotics.



 

Betting The Preakness on a $80 Budget

 

$5 Exacta = $10
4 Always Dreaming, 5 Classic Empire W/ 2 Cloud Computing

 

$2 Exacta = $4

2 Cloud Computing W/ 4 Always Dreaming, 5 Classic Empire

 

$6 Exacta Box = $12

4 Always Dreaming, 5 Classic Empire

 

$1 Trifecta = $12

4 Always Dreaming, 5 Classic Empire W/ 4 Always Dreaming, 5 Classic Empire, 10 Conquest Mo Money, 2 Cloud Computing W/ 4 Always Dreaming, 5 Classic Empire, 10 Conquest Mo Money, 2 Cloud Computing

 

$1 Trifecta = $12

4 Always Dreaming W/ 5 Classic Empire, 1 Multiplier, 3 Hence, 6 Gunnevera W/ 5 Classic Empire, 1 Multiplier, 3 Hence, 6 Gunnevera

 

$1 Trifecta Box = $6

4 Always Dreaming, 5 Classic Empire, 2 Cloud Computing

 

$1 Superfecta = $24

4 Always Dreaming, 5 Classic Empire W/ 4 Always Dreaming, 5 Classic Empire W/ 2 Cloud Computing, 10 Conquest Mo Money, 3 Hence, 6 Gunnevera W/ 2 Cloud Computing, 10 Conquest Mo Money, 3 Hence, 6 Gunnevera

 

Horses I Like On The Undercard

Race 5 - #6 Animal Appeal 9/2

Race 7 - #7 Recruiting Ready 8/5

Race 8 - #4 Dover Cliffs 5/2 & Long Shot Play #1 Mo Maverick 10-1

Race 9 - #5 Whitmore 9/5

Race 11 - #11 True Timber 8-1

 

Follow me on Twitter @PInfante97

Pat Infante
I am from the Jersey Shore. Not the TV show, the actual geographical area. I have been in the car business for over 13 years. Being in the car busines...



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