NFL : IBN Picks - NFL Week 1
posted Sep 10 2017, 11:50AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Sunday Week 1

*2017 NFL Season Record: 8-5-0 +$2,650

*2015 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 96-85-4 +$2,722

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

 

Oakland Raiders @ Tennessee Titans

Vegas Lines:

Line :TEN -2.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 50.5 (-110/-110)

 

 

Oakland and Tennessee matched up last season as well but their game produced just 27 total points in a Raiders win and cover. 

While both teams’ offenses project as being elite, 53 points is a lot. After seeing OVERs come in at a ridiculous rate last year (18 times in 26 games with totals of 51 or more).

Looking at the Titans, budding superstar Marcus Mariota will be throwing to a massively upgraded receiving corps and he’ll hand the ball off to one of the best running back tandems in the NFL. Last season, DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry combined for over 1700 rushing yards and they should only be more effective in 2017 with Corey Davis and Eric Decker expected to take some pressure off the Tennessee running game.

The Raiders had one of the worst defenses in the league in 2016, giving up 375.1 yards per game, so if the Titans come as advertised, they could move the ball at will on Sunday.

Key Trends

The Raiders are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games on the road.

The Raiders are 3-8 SU in their last 11 games on the road against the Titans.

The Titans are 9-24-1 ATS in their last 34 games in the early afternoon.

Oakland is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Oakland's last 11 games

Oakland is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games on the road

Oakland is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road

Tennessee is 7-16-1 ATS in its last 24 games

Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tennessee's last 13 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games

 

 

 

 

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Seattle Seahawks @ Green Bay  Packers

4:15

Vegas Lines:

Line : GB -3 (-110)

Total : O/U 51 (-110)

 

The Packers have won each of their last seven vs Seattle at Lambeau Field, and the Seahawks haven’t exactly been lighting it up when it comes to playing on the road at the beginning of the season in past years. Seattle is 4-13 SU and 3-14 ATS in its last 17 away from home in September.

The Seahawks haven’t won at Lambeau since 1999.

Rodgers was great against the Seahawks in 2016, as the veteran threw three touchdowns and no interceptions while compiling a 150.8 quarterback rating. Wilson notched only one touchdown while throwing five interceptions to go along with a 43.7 quarterback rating.

The Pack finished 22nd in yards allowed per game last season (363.9) and 31st against the pass (269.3). 

 

Key Trends

The total has gone OVER in three of the Seahawks’ last four games against the Packers.

The Packers are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games in the late afternoon.

The total has gone OVER in the Packers’ last seven games.

Seattle is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games

Seattle is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Seattle is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road

Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Green Bay is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 5 games

Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home

 

 

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New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys

8:25

Vegas Lines:

Line : DAL -4 (-110)

Total : O/U 47.5 (-110)

 

Dak Prescott had two of his worst games of the season last year vs the Giants, completion rate was 51.2 percent while throwing for just one touchdown in each game. 

With the spread hovering around the 3.5-point mark in favor of the Cowboys, four of the last five games have been decided by three points or less. New York has been the team to back in those games, as the Giants went 4-0-1 ATS.

As for the total of 47.5 points, that’s about as sharp as it gets as the teams have combined to average 47.3 points per game in their last 10 matchups against each other. The OVER has hit in seven of the last eight games between the teams when they play in Dallas, with the teams combining to score an average of 59.37 points in those games.

 

Key Trends

The total has gone UNDER in seven of the Giants’ last nine games.

The Cowboys are 5-1 SU in their last six prime-time games.

The Giants are 1-5 SU in their last six games in Week 1.

NY Giants is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games

NY Giants is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Giants' last 9 games

NY Giants is 3-5-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road

Dallas is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games

Dallas is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games

Dallas is 7-13-2 ATS in its last 22 games at home

 

 

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Risky Picks
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