NFL : IBN Picks - NFL Week 2
posted Sep 17 2017, 10:44AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Sunday Week 8

*2017 NFL Season Record: 8-5-0 +$2,650

*2015 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 96-85-4 +$2,722

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Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

 

 

 

New England Patriots @ New Orleans Saints

Vegas Lines:

Line  NE -6.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 56.5 (-110/-110)

 

 

Bettors should be aware of the fact that New England doesn’t often drop back-to-back games, either straight up or against the spread. Ppatriots have gone 17-3 SU after a loss.

The Saints at home are 9-3 ATS as a home underdog. The Patriots won all eight of their road games in 2016, covering the spread in seven, and winning six of those games by double digits.

Lots of scoring is expected with the game opening the week with the highest total of the board — 54.5 points. The Saints have topped the total in 10 of their last 13 games at home and will be looking to take advantage of a Patriots defense that gave up 42 points and 537 total yards in Week 1. The Patriots should also have the luxury of racking up lots of points as the Saints were the league’s worst home defense in 2016, allowing 29.5 points per game.

An issue for the Saints is they are 1-10 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games in September. They’re 4-14 SU in their last 18 September games away from New Orleans.

 

Key Trends

On the road in 2016, Tom Brady threw 18 TDs and 0 INTs.

The Patriots are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on the road.

Drew Brees has thrown for 300 or more yards in 12 of his last 15 games at home.

New England is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games

New England is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games

New England is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games on the road

New Orleans is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans' last 5 games

New Orleans is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home

New Orleans is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

 

 

 

 

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Washignton Redskins @ Los Angeles Rams

4:25

Vegas Lines:

Line : LA -2.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 45.5 (-110)

 

The Los Angeles Rams were 0-7 SU and ATS over their previous seven games before last Sunday’s 46-9 blowout of Indianapolis.  The Rams had the worst offense in the NFL in 2016, and Sunday’s 46 points outscored Los Angeles’s previous four games combined.

Washington is an impressive 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games as a road underdog. In their last four road games against the Rams, however, the Redskins are just 1-3 SU and ATS.

Neither of these teams has played well in the late afternoon recently. Los Angeles is 1-4 ATS in its last five late-afternoon games and Washington is 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS in its last four.

 

Key Trends

The Rams are 1-6 SU in their last seven games at home.

The total has gone UNDER in three of the Redskins’ last four games against the Rams.

The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the Rams’ last 14 games after losing the previous game in a matchup.

Washington is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games

Washington is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

The total has gone OVER in 17 of Washington's last 22 games

LA Rams is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games

LA Rams is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams' last 5 games

LA Rams is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home

 

 

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Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

8:25

Vegas Lines:

Line : ATL -3 (-110)

Total : O/U 56 (-110)

 

If you like offense (and betting the OVER), this is a game for you as the teams have combined to score an average of 70 points per game in their last three matchups against each other. The total for the game is hovering in the 53.5-point range, but it wouldn’t be shocking to see the teams annihilate that number considering the Falcons have gone OVER in 10 straight home games.

The average combined points per game during Atlanta’s 10-game home OVER streak is 63. This is Green Bay’s first road game of the season, in 2016, they allowed 30.1 points per game outside of Green Bay, bad enough for second-worst in the NFL.

Keep in mind that when Atlanta wins, they tend to win big. Of their last 14 wins, they’ve won by an average of 14.35 points, with only one of those victories being decided by three points or less. That one win by three points or less came against the Packers, of course. Either way, if you like them to win outright, you should also like them to cover the spread.

Green Bay has a tens to struggle on the road to open seasons, especially as far as covering spreads is concerned. In their last 12 September road games, they’re just 3-9 ATS. Working in their favor, however, is Aaron Rodgers’ tendency to light it up when playing in a dome, as he threw for nine touchdowns and just one pick in indoor games last regular season.

 

Key Trends

In two games vs the Packers last season, Matt Ryan threw for 680 yards, 7 TDs and 0 INTs.

The Packers are 6-14 ATS in their last 20 games against the NFC South.

The Falcons are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games in Week 2.

Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Green Bay is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Green Bay's last 8 games

Green Bay is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Atlanta is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

The total has gone OVER in 9 of Atlanta's last 10 games

Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home

 

 

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