NFL : IBN Picks - NFL Week 4
posted Oct 01 2017, 11:50AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Sunday Week 4

*2017 NFL Season Record: 8-5-0 +$2,650

*2015 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 96-85-4 +$2,722

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

 

 

 

Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys

Vegas Lines:

Line  DAL -5 (-110)

Total : O/U 49.5 (-110/-110)

 

 

The NFL’s lowest-scoring team from a year ago, the Rams look like a completely different unit under first-year coach Sean McVay. The additions of Sammy Watkins and Robert Woods have also helped L.A. score 107 points through three games, the second-most in franchise history. 

The Rams and Cowboys have a penchant of playing low-scoring games, meaning UNDER bettors will be tracking this matchup closely. In the last seven meetings between the squads, the UNDER is 5-2. 

After getting hammered by the Denver Broncos in Week 2, Dallas got back on track in a 28-17 triumph over the Arizona Cardinals in Monday Night Football. The Cowboys got off to a terrible start but found their legs halfway through the game to hang on for the win to improve to 2-1 and tie the Philadelphia Eagles for first place in the NFC East. 

The OVER tends to pay out when the Cowboys are labeled as home chalk. In Dallas’s last 11 as home favorites, the OVER is 8-3.

 

Key Trends

The Rams are 3-13 SU in their last 16 games on the road in October.

The total has gone UNDER in five of the Rams’ last seven games against the Cowboys.

The Cowboys are 2-6 SU and ATS in their last eight games in Week 4.

LA Rams is 1-9 ATS in its last 10 games

LA Rams is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams' last 5 games

LA Rams is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Dallas is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games

Dallas is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Dallas's last 9 games

Dallas is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games at home

 

 

 

 

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Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos

4:25

Vegas Lines:

Line : DEN -3 (-110)

Total : O/U 44 (-110)

 

The Broncos had owned the Raiders for the first part of this decade, but the Raiders are starting to come around vs their divisional rival, picking up wins and covers in two of the last three games in this matchup.

The Raiders tend to get underestimated in divisional road games. They’re currently on a stretch that’s seen them go 24-9 ATS in their last 33 games when visiting other AFC West teams. Particularly, as an underdog in Denver, they’ve gone 8-3 ATS in their last 11 in that spot.

As for the Broncos, losing streaks are a bit of a rarity, as they’re 18-5 SU following a loss. They’re also a very tough out at home with a 24-6 SU record in their last 30 in Denver. They’ve allowed an average of 19 points per game in their two home games this season, which is up slightly from the 18.6 they allowed at home last season.

With the total for the game hovering at 46.5 points, bettors will be interested to know that the UNDER is trending coming into the game. It’s hit in three of the last four games between the teams and in five of the Raiders’ last six on the road.

Key Trends

Oakland is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games

Oakland is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games on the road

Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Oakland is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road

Denver is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games

Denver is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games

Denver is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 games at home

The Broncos are allowing the fewest rushing yards per game in the NFL — 59.7.

The Raiders are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games on the road.

The Raiders are 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games against the Broncos.

 

 

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Los Angeles Chargers @ Philadelphia Eagles

8:25

Vegas Lines:

Line : LAC -1.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 48 (-110)

Sunday marks the first meeting between these clubs in four years. The Chargers posted SU and ATS wins in their past two meetings, and have not lost to Philadelphia at home since 1974, going 5-0 SU in five dates since, and covering in three of the past four.

The Chargers have shown little sign of improvement after finishing last season with five straight SU and ATS losses. Los Angeles is also winless in six straight home dates, and has averaged just 16 points per game in three straight losses to open the new season. However, the Chargers have managed to stay within three points in four of their eight recent losses.   

Philadelphia blew a 14-0 lead before rallying for the win over the Giants with no time left on the clock. The Eagles also blew a third-quarter lead in a 27-20 Week 2 loss in Kansas City as 4.5-point underdogs, and are currently on a 1-8 SU run on the road, 2-7 ATS.

 

Key Trends

Philadelphia is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games

Philadelphia is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games on the road

LA Chargers is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 7 games

LA Chargers is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home

The total has gone OVER in three of the Eagles’ last four games against the Chargers.

The total has gone UNDER in five of the Chargers’ last seven games.

The Eagles are 1-3 SU in their last four games on the West Coast.

 

 

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