NFL : IBN Picks - NFL Week 5
posted Oct 08 2017, 11:54AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Sunday Week 5

*2017 NFL Season Record: 8-5-0 +$2,650

*2016 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

 

 

 

Los Angeles Chargers @ New  York Giants

Vegas Lines:

Line  NYG -3 (-110)

Total : O/U 46 (-110/-110)

 

 

The Los Angeles Chargers and New York Giants both enter October with an 0-4 SU record in 2017. Los Angeles is 0-9 SU and 0-8-1 ATS over its last nine games. Five of the Chargers’ last seven losses have come by a field goal or less, including last week’s 26-24 loss to Philadelphia. The Chargers hope to finally crack the code against the Giants, whom they are 3-0 SU and ATS against in the last three meetings between the two teams.

Eli Manning ranking fifth in the NFL in passing yards with 1,113 through the first four games of the season has not translated into wins for the Giants. New York is 0-5 SU over its last five games, but has picked up ATS wins in each of its last two games as an underdog. The Giants are 18-4 SU in their last 22 games as a favorite of a field goal or higher.

Both of these teams have major issues running the ball. Los Angeles ranks 29th in the NFL averaging 67.5 rushing yards per game and New York ranks 31st with 59.3 per game.

 

Key Trends

LA Chargers is 0-4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

LA Chargers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

LA Chargers is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games on the road

LA Chargers is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

NY Giants is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of NY Giants' last 13 games

NY Giants is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home

NY Giants is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

The Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last five games when hosting a West Coast team.

The Chargers are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games in the early afternoon.

The total has gone OVER in four of the Chargers’ last five games against the Giants.

 

 

 

 

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Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams

4:25

Vegas Lines:

Line : LAR -2.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 47.5 (-110)

 

After upsetting the Cowboys in Dallas as a 5-point underdog, the Rams will be looking to cover the spread in a sixth straight home game vs their division rival.

This is the first time in six years that the Rams (-2.5) have been favored over the Seahawks. Seattle has long dominated the Rams, outright at least, winning 18 of the last 24 games between the teams. Matchups have been split 10 games during the Russell Wilson era.

The UNDER has been a great play in this matchup over the last five years as it’s hit in eight of the last 10 games between the teams. The high-flying Rams have yet to go UNDER a total this season, though, and as a result the game has one of the highest totals on Sunday’s slate, at 47 points. Seattle has been inconsistent this season, but the Seahawks shouldn’t have any issues keeping up on offense as they scored 73 points in their last two games.

 

Key Trends

 

Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Seattle is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

Seattle is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road

LA Rams is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games

LA Rams is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams' last 6 games

LA Rams is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home

Todd Gurley has scored at least one TD in five of his last six home games.

The Rams are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 games at home in October.

The total has gone UNDER in four of the Seahawks’ last five divisional road games.

 

 

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Green Bay Packers @ Dallas Cowboys

8:25

Vegas Lines:

Line : DAL -2.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 52 (-110)

Another all-American matchup takes place this weekend when Aaron Rodgers and the Packers travel to Dallas to challenge Dak Prescott and the Cowboys as small underdogs. While the Packers have dominated the Jerry Jones jalopy since 2009, the ’Boys are a much better football club of late and the Pack have had serious trouble as road underdogs the last half-decade.

Splitting their two matchups last season, the Cowboys and Packers are very familiar with each other. Green Bay edged out Dallas in the divisional round of the playoffs last year in a game that Aaron Rodgers threw for 355 yards and two touchdowns. He hasn’t been great against the Cowboys in his career (3-3 in six starts) but he’s excelled against the rest of the NFC East and his team is 9-2 straight up and 7-3-1 against the spread vs the division since 2013.

Looking more vulnerable on the ground than through the air, however, the Cowboys should have some defensive success against a Packers team that will be forced to start Aaron Jones, a third-string running back, after losing Ty Montgomery and Jamaal Williams to injuries. If the rookie RB has a good game, though, America’s Team could be screwed as the Cowboys are 0-3 straight up and against the spread in the last three games that they’ve allowed over 100 rushing yards.

For the Cowboys, the key to success will be holding on to the football and keeping it on the ground. They’ve lost five of the last six games in which they’ve turned the ball over and the Packers finished 2016 with 17 interceptions – the second-highest total in the NFL.

Star running back Ezekiel Elliott seems to have put his distractions behind him, accumulating 233 yards from scrimmage and three total touchdowns in his last two games and if he has another good day against the green and gold, his team should have a good chance to win on Sunday.

When Zeke lined up against the Pack for the first time in Week 6 last year, he rushed for 157 yards and is bound to have another bountiful day vs Dom Capers’ pass-focused Nitro defense.

This is one of the tightest games on the Week 5 board and handicapping it won’t be easy. It will, however, be one of the better games of the weekend with the Cowboys looking to stay above water and the Packers coming off a thumping of a division rival.

 

Key Trends

The Packers are 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against the Cowboys

The Cowboys are 0-2 SU and ATS in the 2 games they’ve turned the ball over this season

The Packers are 3-11 SU as a road underdog since November 2012

Green Bay is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games

Green Bay is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games

The total has gone OVER in 10 of Green Bay's last 11 games

Green Bay is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road

Dallas is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games

Dallas is 15-5 SU in its last 20 games

Dallas is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

 

 

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