NFL : IBN Picks - NFL Week 6
posted Oct 15 2017, 11:22AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Sunday Week 6

*2017 NFL Season Record: 8-5-0 +$2,650

*2016 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

 

 

 

Detroit Lions @ New Orleans Saints

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line  NO -4.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 50.5 (-110/-110)

 

 

The Saints in the NFL’s opening month the last few seasons are 1-9 straight up in their last 10, they’ve won 10 straight in October and they opened as field-goal favorites to beat the Lions off their bye week.

The highest-paid player in the NFL is damaged goods after Detroit’s loss to the Panthers last week in which he was sacked six times and he might not be able to suit up for Sunday’s tilt in the Big Easy. If Stafford is unable to go, Jake Rudock will stand under center. The 2016 191st overall draft pick has never thrown a pass in the NFL and he won’t be helped much by a Detroit running game that’s averaging just 87.6 yards per game.

Whoever starts for Detroit, they’ll have to keep up with a Saints offense that’s been putting up 370.5 yards per game this season and bookmakers aren’t confident that either man can. In their last five games at home after a bye week, the Saints have averaged a mind-blowing 41.4 points. Not many teams are stopping – or keeping up with – that.

New Orleans is a rested squad going up against a Lions team that was battered by the Panthers. Expect the Saints to bring a ton of pressure against whoever is calling the signals on Sunday and expect them to air the ball out against a defense that allowed Cam Newton to throw for 355 yards and three touchdowns a week ago.

 

Key Trends

Detroit is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games

Detroit is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

The total has gone UNDER in 11 of Detroit's last 16 games

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Detroit's last 9 games on the road

New Orleans is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans' last 7 games

The total has gone OVER in 11 of New Orleans' last 14 games at home

New Orleans is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Detroit

The Saints are 5-0 SU and ATS in their last 5 home games after a bye week.

The Lions are 6-54 SU in their last 60 games as underdogs of 4 points or more.

The Saints are 7-0 and 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as favorites in the month of October.

 

 

 

 

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Los Angeles Rams @ Jacksonville Jaguars

4:05

Vegas Lines:

Line : PK (-110)

Total : O/U 42 (-110)

 

The 3-2 Rams hope to rebound from a heartbreaking 16-10 loss at Seattle as 2.5-point chalk, while the Jaguars return home following their shocking 30-9 rout of Pittsburgh as 7.5-point underdogs.

After tallying 35 or more points in three of their previous four outings, the Rams traveled to Seattle last weekend as the NFL’s highest-scoring team. However, Los Angeles’ point production has not produced consistency at the sportsbooks, where it is 2-3 ATS this season, and 3-13-1 ATS over the past 17. The Rams are also undefeated SU in two road games this season, but have not won three straight on the road since 2012.

The 3-2 Jaguars claimed sole possession of first place in the AFC South with last week’s win over the Steelers, but have been dismal performers on home turf, going 2-8 SU over their past 10, and scoring 17 or fewer points in six of those contests. Jacksonville has also lost outright in three straight as home chalk, and is a meagre 4-7 SU and ATS over its past 11.

This marks just the fourth meeting between these two clubs since 1996. The Rams have taken three of four SU from Jacksonville, and have covered in all four matchups. However, the Jaguars claimed victory in their lone home date against the Rams during that stretch, a 23-20 win as 9.5-point chalk in 2009.

 

 

Key Trends

 

 

LA Rams is 2-10 ATS in its last 12 games

LA Rams is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams' last 7 games

LA Rams is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

Jacksonville is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games

Jacksonville is 4-12 SU in its last 16 games

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 9 games

Jacksonville is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

The total has gone OVER in the Rams’ last three games against the Jaguars.

The Jaguars are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games.

The Rams are 10-32 SU in their last 42 games on the East Coast.

 

 

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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Kansas City Chiefs

8:25

Vegas Lines:

Line : KC -4 (-110)

Total : O/U 46 (-110)

Alex Smith and the Chiefs are perfect through five weeks – both in the standings and for bettors – and some have crowned them kings of the NFL. Their throne will be challenged in Week 6, though, when they face a Steelers team that’s desperately trying to prove it’s still a Super Bowl contender.

Kansas City opened as a 3.5-point favorite after an impressive win over the Texans on Sunday night and that line has been moving more heavily in the direction of the Chiefs ever since. Now at +650 in NFL futures, the Chiefs look like they’re for real and they can affirm their status as one of the best in the league with a win against a team they’ve gone just 1-5 against in their last six matchups.

Coming off a five-interception day against the Jaguars, Ben Roethlisberger might have been a little off all day on Sunday but it was confusing why he was asked to throw the ball 55 times vs one of the best aerial defenses in the NFL.

The Chiefs’ last seven games at Arrowhead Stadium against teams in the NFC North have averaged just 30 total points and Pittsburgh’s defense has been really good this year, allowing just 276.2 total yards of offense per game.

 

Key Trends

 

Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

Pittsburgh is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

Pittsburgh is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road

Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games

Kansas City is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games at home

The Chiefs are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games in the late afternoon.

The Steelers are 0-5 SU and 0-3-2 ATS in their last 5 road games as underdogs of 5 points or more.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of the Chiefs’ last 8 games against the AFC North.

 

 

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