NFL Report Week 11
posted Nov 19 2017, 09:57AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Sunday Week 1

*2017 NFL Season Record: 8-5-0 +$2,650

*2016 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

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Washington Redskins@ New  Orleans Saints

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: NO -9.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 52.5 (-110/-110)

 

 

The New Orleans Saints are chasing the Eagles for top spot in the NFC and will look for their eighth win in a row when they host Washington in Week 11. Since their tough loss in Week 2 at home to the Patriots, the Saints have been steamrolling opponents and have been one of the most dominant teams in the NFL. And that’s without quarterback Drew Brees carrying the offense. The Saints opened as 7.5-point favorites.

Brees is averaging a career low in passing attempts per game, but has a career-high 71.7 completion percentage. Saints are fifth in points allowed (18.33) and are sixth in passing yards allowed and it can be mainly attributed to Marcus Lattimore, the front-runner for rookie defensive player of the year. The Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games and there are no signs at this stage that New Orleans won’t eat the points at Mercedes-Benz Superdome.

The Washington Professional Football Team was expected to make a playoff run after shocking the Seattle Seahawks in Week 9. But it seems like they can’t get out of their own way after a disappointing defeat to the Vikings. Now at 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS overall, the Redskins are playing like an undisciplined football team, averaging over five penalties (for an average total of 41 yards) per game, which is second-worst in the NFL. The only saving grace for Washington backers is they’re 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS in their last five games against the Saints. Kirk Cousins and company will need to sling it if they plan to make any noise against New Orleans, as starting running back Rob Kelley will be out with an ankle injury.

The total opened at 51 and bettors should consider the OVER. The total has gone OVER in seven of Washington’s last nine games on the road and in eight of the last nine times in this matchup. When you factor in that the Mercedes-Benz Superdome is notorious for shootouts, placing a wager on the OVER could be a steal.

 

Key Trends

The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Saints’ last 17 games at home.

Mark Ingram is tied for first with 7 rushing TDs this season.

Washington is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games on the road.

Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games

Washington is 11-4 ATS in its last 15 games on the road

New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games

New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Orleans' last 12 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans' last 6 games

 

 

 

 

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New England Pariots @ Oakland Raiders

4:25

(Mexico City)

Vegas Lines:

Line : NE 6.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 54.5 (-110)

 

 

Raiders head coach Jack Del Rio is not exactly thrilled with heading back to Mexico, calling it a “competitive disadvantage” and “one that we’ve faced the last couple of years and will face the next few years.” The heightened elevation of 7,258 feet certainly plays a factor in that, as the Raiders have decided they won’t leave for the game until Saturday due to their own research indicating that the best way to avoid the effects of the altitude is to get in and out before their bodies take notice.

After enduring some major struggles on defense to start the season, the Patriots have turned things around in a big way. Heading into this one, the Pats haven’t allowed their last five opponents to score more than 20 points. The fans at Estadio Azteca will likely see the Raiders struggle to move the ball against the new and improved unit.

Oakland will be fully rested coming off a bye week, and we’ve seen them perform well in this spot before. In the Raiders’ last five games after the bye, they’re a perfect 5-0 ATS.

 

Key Trends

The Raiders are 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven games.

The Patriots are 17-2 SU in their last 19 games in the late afternoon.

The total has gone UNDER in six of the Patriots’ last eight games as a favorite of 5.5 or less.

New England is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 9 of New England's last 13 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games

Oakland is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games

Oakland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Oakland's last 5 games

Oakland is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing New England

 

 

 

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Philadelphia Eagles @ Dallas Cowboys

8:30

Vegas Lines:

Line : ATL -3.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 48 (-110)

 

 

The Philadelphia Eagles are as great as it gets as their 7-2 ATS record, which includes six straight covers, is the best in the NFL. Well-rested coming off their bye week, the Eagles will hope to keep rolling and keep adding to their backers’ bankrolls Sunday night in Dallas.

Given their recent domination of spreads and with the Cowboys coming off an ugly loss in Atlanta,  a very strong case can be made for backing Philly at -5.5, especially with Cowboys left tackle Tyron Smith and linebacker Sean Lee uncertain for the game. Without Smith vs the Falcons, Dallas allowed a season-high eight sacks and looked like a much different team. Now combine that with Ezekiel Elliott being out and the Cowboys offense suddenly morphs into a very mediocre unit.

The majority of Philly’s beatdowns have occurred at home this season, but they have a prime-time road win and cover under their belts from a Thursday night win in Carolina. Dallas has been about as average as it gets at home this season, going 2-2 SU and ATS, and traditionally hasn’t been especially good when hosting the Eagles, going 8-14 ATS since 1996 and, more recently, 2-4 ATS since 2011. This will be the Cowboys’ first game as a home underdog this season, while the Eagles covered the spread in their lone game as a road favorite this season.

Taking a look at the total, which is sitting in the 48-point range, bettors will be interested to know that the Eagles have gone OVER in three of their four road games this season and have surpassed the 48-point mark in five of their last seven games.

 

 

Key Trends

The visiting team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 games in this matchup.

The Cowboys are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games at home in November.

The Eagles are 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs divisional opponents.

Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games

Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

Dallas is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games

Dallas is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games at home

 

 

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