NFL Report Week 12
posted Nov 26 2017, 11:33AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Sunday Week 12

*2017 NFL Season Record: 8-5-0 +$2,650

*2016 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

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New York Jets @ Carolina Panthers

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: NO -9.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 52.5 (-110/-110)

 

 

The Panthers scored their highest point total since September 2016 in last week’s win over the Dolphins, and now ride a three-game SU win streak to remain just one game back of first-place New Orleans in the NFC South. The Carolina defense has also performed, surrendering just 14.5 points per game over their past four outings. The Panthers have also emerged as road warriors this season, winning SU in four of five, including three outright wins as betting underdogs.

The Jets come off a Week 11 bye on a dismal 1-4 SU run, including a pair of SU defeats on home turf. However, New York has regularly paid out at the sportsbooks, going 6-1-1 ATS in its past eight overall, and 9-2 ATS in its past 11 home games against teams with winning records. The Jets have also won outright in their past three home dates while pegged as underdogs by 5 or fewer points.   

Carolina recorded a 30-20 win as 10-point home chalk in its last meeting with the Jets four years ago, but is winless SU and ATS in two all-time visits to New York, scoring just 13.5 ppg.

 

Key Trends

The total has gone UNDER in three of the Panthers’ last four games against the Jets.

The Jets are 1-5 SU in their last six games against the NFC.

The Panthers are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games on the road against teams with losing records.

Carolina is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Carolina is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

Carolina is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road

Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road

NY Jets is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games

NY Jets is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

NY Jets is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

NY Jets is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

 

 

 

 

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New Orleans Saints @ Los Angeles Rams

4:25

(Mexico City)

Vegas Lines:

Line : NE 6.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 54.5 (-110)

 

 

The Saints are on a nine-game winning streak and opened as 2.5-point road dogs vs the Rams, who suffered their first legitimate test of adversity this season after getting dominated by the Vikings.

The New Orleans Saints are 8-2 SU but should be 7-3 SU. They were down 16 points with just over three minutes to go vs Washington and were left for dead. The rushing attack for the Saints has to be considered near the top of the NFL with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara punishing opposing defenses and both averaging over five yards per carry. The Rams allow over 120 rushing yards per game, which plays right into the Saints’ hands. Look for the Saints, who are 8-0 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight, to come out with a victory.

The Rams will want to study the game tape on how Washington exploited New Orleans. Head coach Sean McVay is a wizard at play-calling and will need to pull out all the stops if they expect to produce against the resurgent Saints defense. The good news for the Rams is they still possess an elite offense with a top-five running back in Todd Gurley. The bad news is they’re 2-8 SU in their last 10 games at home (dating back to last season) and have only beaten one team with a winning record this season (Jacksonville). I wouldn’t go as far as saying the Rams are frauds but plenty of experts have jumped on the bandwagon to say they are legit contenders. They may want to take it down a notch until Los Angeles proves it can compete with the elite teams of the NFL.

The total opened at 53.5 in this potential shootout and the OVER looks promising. Both of these teams average over 30 points per game and the OVER has hit in five of New Orleans’ last seven games on the road. Los Angeles averages 34 points per game after losses this season.

Key Trends

The Saints are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against the Rams.

The total has gone OVER in eight of the Saints’ last nine games in the late afternoon.

Todd Gurley leads the NFL with 11 TDs (8 rushing, 3 receiving).

New Orleans is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games

New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 9 of New Orleans' last 13 games

New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road

LA Rams is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

LA Rams is 7-14-1 ATS in its last 22 games

LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams' last 6 games

 

 

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Green Bay Packers @ Pittsburgh Steelers

8:30

Vegas Lines:

Line : ATL -3.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 48 (-110)

 

 

Green Bay has gone 1-4 SU and ATS without its superstar QB and is averaging just 13.4 points per game in his absence. 

Fresh off a 40-17 smackdown of the Titans on Thursday Night Football, one of the hottest trends for Week 12 is the Steelers’ domination in night games. Pittsburgh has won nine straight prime-time games which includes six straight covers, and the games haven’t been very competitive. Their average winning margin in the nine games is 15.9 points and three of those nine games were at home where they won by an average of 29 points.

With all that’s going right for the Steelers and all that’s going wrong for the Packers, it’s no shock that this game has one of the biggest spreads of the week — hovering in the 14-point range. Historically, Pittsburgh has been a poor bet when facing a spread that big, going just 2-8 ATS since 1992. Green Bay has been a 14-point underdog just three times since 1986 and covered the spread in all three games.

The Brett Hundley era has been difficult to digest for Packers backers as he’s thrown for just two touchdowns while spitting out seven interceptions in the five games he’s played in. The running game and defense haven’t been able to offset the atrocious quarterback play and Sunday night vs a Steelers D that’s allowed just 15.2 points per game over its last five doesn’t look like a realistic time for Hundley to break out.

With the total in the 41-point ballpark, bettors will be interested to know that the Steelers have gone UNDER in eight of their 10 games this season. With the Packers getting shut out at home last week vs the Ravens, the Steelers should be expected to account for the majority of those 41 points if you’re considering taking the OVER.

 

 

Key Trends

Pittsburgh ranks fifth in net yards per play this season. Green Bay ranks 24th.

Le’Veon Bell hasn’t scored a touchdown at home this season.

The last time the Packers won a game in Pittsburgh was in 1970.

Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Green Bay is 13-6 SU in its last 19 games

Green Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 13 of Green Bay's last 17 games

Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 10 games

Pittsburgh is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home

 

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