NFL Report Week 13
posted Dec 03 2017, 12:04PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Sunday Week 13

*2017 NFL Season Record: 8-5-0 +$2,650

*2016 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

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New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: NE -7.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 48.5 (-110/-110)

 

 

New England is 20-8-3 ATS in its last 31 games in Buffalo and, more recently, 11-4-1 ATS during the Brady/Belichick era. The Patriots will look to add another cover to that record as a big favorite and look to continue another trend that’s seen them go 5-0 ATS in their last five games.

Aside from their history of being a great bet in Buffalo, the Patriots also have a great history of beating the living crap out of the Bills as they’ve won 24 of the last 27 games between the teams, with the wins coming by an average of 16.3 points. Since its bye week, New England has scorched opponents, easily winning three games by an average of 22.6 points. The defense has really stepped up since showing some early-season holes, allowing just 13.1 points per game over the last seven.

The Bills look like a team that’s trying to tank, but they’re somehow botching their rebuild as their 6-5 SU record has them within striking distance of a playoff spot. They do have just one loss this season at home, where they’ve gone 3-1-1 ATS, but this might be a great game to load up on Patriots in your fantasy leagues. The Bills are a mess on defense as they’ve allowed 36.25 points per game over their last four games, while at home this season they’re allowing 375.2 yards per game, which is bad enough for fifth-worst in the NFL.

The game features the highest total on the Week 13 board at 49 points and bettors will be interested to know that the total has gone OVER in five of the Bills’ last six games. The average combined score in those games was 53.5. The Patriots have been in plenty of high-scoring games this season as six of their games have reached the 50-point mark.

 

Key Trends

The Bills are 1-5 SU and ATS in their last six games vs divisional opponents.

Tom Brady has thrown for 13 TDs and 1 INT in his last five games.

The Patriots are 40-6 SU in their last 46 games in December.

New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 10 of New England's last 15 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 7 games

Buffalo is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games

The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games

Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

The total has gone OVER in 12 of Buffalo's last 13 games at home

 

 

 

 

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Carolina Panthers @ New Orleans Saints 

4:25

(Mexico City)

Vegas Lines:

Line : N0 -5 (-110)

Total : O/U 47.5 (-110)

 

 

Due to the importance of the game, the NFL has flexed the start time back to a 4:25 p.m. ET kickoff instead of its initial 1 p.m. start time.

The Saints have four divisional games remaining over the final five weeks of the campaign while Carolina has played each divisional opponent once. The Panthers suffered a huge 34-13 loss to the Saints back in Week 3 but look like a different squad right now thanks to wins in each of their last four games, with triumphs over Tampa Bay, Atlanta, Miami and the New York Jets in that span.

The Saints have reeled off an eight-game winning streak before falling 26-20 to the Rams in Week 12. On the heels of three straight 7-9 SU campaigns, the Saints are officially back and have fans in the Bayou State dreaming of another appearance in the Super Bowl.

The dominant rushing attack led by veteran Mark Ingram and rookie sensation Alvin Kamara has been the difference-maker, as the Saints rank third in the NFL in yards per game on the ground at 142.1. Sportsbooks have underestimated New Orleans in 2017 and the Saints have proven them wrong to the tune of a solid 7-4 ATS record.

When the Panthers and Saints get together, high-scoring affairs tend to follow. In the previous six meetings between the NFC South rivals, the OVER is 5-1.

 

Key Trends

The favored team is 18-6 SU in the last 24 games in this matchup.

The Panthers are 17-4 SU in their last 21 games in December.

The total has gone OVER in the Saints’ last four games after a loss.

Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Carolina is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Carolina's last 9 games

Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games on the road

New Orleans is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games

New Orleans is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans' last 6 games

New Orleans is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

 

 

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Philadelphia Eagles @ Seattle Seahawks

8:30

Vegas Lines:

Line : PHI -3.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 46 (-110)

 

 

The Eagles are favored in the game, which shouldn’t come as a shock, but it’ll be the first time since October 14, 2012 that the Seahawks will be a home underdog. That game was against the Patriots — the Seahawks won 24-23. There’s an avalanche worth of trends supporting Seattle in this one, at least as far as covering the spread is concerned.

First off, they’re 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a home underdog. They also won eight of those games outright. As an underdog overall, they’re on a brilliant run that’s seen them go 23-9-2 ATS in their last 34. Next up is their history of domination in December, as they’re 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games in December. And, finally, is their record in prime time, as they’ve gone 22-5-3 ATS in their last 30 games at night. These are some wild and extraordinarily profitable numbers.

More recent trends show that Seattle is 0-2 SU and ATS in its last two home games and a quick glance at the stats and standings shows the Eagles are the superior team. Philly only has one loss, but their competition has been anything but elite, and their opponents’ combined record of 42-68 SU proves that. The Panthers are the only team they have a win against this season that has a winning record. This doesn’t take anything away from the Eagles, but is perhaps a warning sign to temper your expectations ahead of a game in an extremely challenging environment. Seattle seems to be barely hanging on to their contender status, but they’re awfully appealing (to me, at least) as a 5-point home underdog.

Sports betting historians should be extremely interested to know that the Eagles are on the cusp of becoming just the fourth team in the last 10 seasons to cover the spread in nine straight games. This is a dominant run that’s seen them win by an average of 17.1 points during their nine-game SU winning streak. Wild stuff!

The total for the game is hovering in the 47-point range and both teams have gone UNDER in three of their last four games. Philly’s offense has been virtually unstoppable as they’ve already scored 30 or more points in seven games. Seattle’s defense is no longer great, but they remain one of 10 teams to be allowing fewer than 20 points per game.

 

 

Key Trends

The last time the Seahawks lost three straight home games in the same season was in 2008.

The favored team is 7-2 SU and ATS in the last nine games in this matchup.

The Eagles are 8-0 ATS in their last eight games.

Philadelphia is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road

Seattle is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Seattle is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Seattle's last 7 games

Seattle is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

 

 

 

 

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