NFL Report Week 16
posted Dec 24 2017, 09:24AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Sunday Week 16

*2017 NFL Season Record: 8-5-0 +$2,650

*2016 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

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Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: NO -5(-110)

Total : O/U 51.5 (-110/-110)

 

The Saints will be out for revenge after falling 20-17 to the Falcons in Week 14. The biggest factor in that game was the absence of dynamic running back Alvin Kamara, however. Kamara, who suffered a concussion in the first half and did not return, is back in the fold and figures to be good to go this weekend.

The rookie has collected 1,346 yards from scrimmage and 12 touchdowns in an impressive campaign, and he’s in line to have a big day vs a Falcons defense that’s given up 4.3 yards per carry in 2017. New Orleans is a different team at home as well, as the Saints have rattled off five straight victories in Louisiana while winning by an average of 13.4 points in the process.

Over the past four seasons, the team that won the first game of the year has also won the second. Atlanta hung on to narrowly edge the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15’s Monday Night Football. That was a must-win for the Falcons considering the Saints and Panthers are left on the docket – two tough tests that will make their playoff push extra interesting.

Betting on the underdog has been extremely profitable in this series. In the last eight meetings between the clubs, underdogs have gone 7-1 ATS.

 

 

Key Trends

The Saints are 8-0 SU in their last eight games in the early afternoon.

The favored team is 2-5 SU in the last seven games in this matchup.

The Falcons are 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in their last eight games vs divisional opponents.

Atlanta is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games

Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Atlanta's last 11 games

Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

New Orleans is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans' last 6 games

New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

 

 

 

 

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Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs

4:05

Vegas Lines:

Line : KC -10 (-110)

Total : O/U 43 (-110)

 

 

The Kansas City Chiefs can clinch top spot in the AFC West with a victory on Sunday, when they battle the Miami Dolphins at Arrowhead Stadium. The Chiefs recorded consecutive wins for the first time since early October with last week’s 30-13 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers as 1-point home chalk, while Miami saw a two-game surge ended with a 24-16 loss in Buffalo as a 3.5-point underdog.

After enduring a dismal 1-7 SU slide that threatened their playoff chances, the Chiefs have rebounded with a pair of clutch SU and ATS wins over division rivals Los Angeles and Oakland. A revitalized Chiefs offense has averaged 29 points per game over the past three outings, while the defense has limited opponents to 16 or fewer points in four of the squad’s past five, fueling a 5-1 run for the UNDER in totals betting.

Miami’s loss to the Bills put the brakes on a brief two-game SU win streak while extending the squad’s SU and ATS slide on the road to four games. The Dolphins have regularly stumbled out of the gate during a 0-4 SU run on the road, scoring a total of just three first-quarter points in those contests. The Miami defense has also surrendered a hefty 36 ppg during the squad’s current road slide, pushing the point total OVER in each of those contests.

Sunday marks the first meeting between these teams since 2014, when the Chiefs posted a 34-15 win in Miami as 5.5-point underdogs. However, the Dolphins are unbeaten SU in two visits to Arrowhead, including a 31-3 victory as 5.5-point underdogs in 2011.

 

Key Trends

The Chiefs are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games in Week 16.

The total has gone OVER in eight of the Dolphins’ last nine games.

The Dolphins are 2-6 SU in their last eight games as underdog.

Miami is 2-5-2 ATS in its last 9 games

Miami is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games

The total has gone OVER in 8 of Miami's last 9 games

Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games

Kansas City is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home

 

 

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Jacksonville Jaguars @ San Francisco 49ers

4:25

Vegas Lines:

Line : JAX -4 (-110)

Total : O/U 42 (-110)

 

While the Jags defense – which is the top-rated unit in the league – has been outstanding, the offense has done its part as well. Quarterback Blake Bortles has enjoyed a nice bounce-back season and has 3,147 passing yards with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions, while standout rookie running back Leonard Fournette has 923 yards on the ground and eight scores.

Jacksonville has won seven of its last eight and three straight with wins over the Indianapolis Colts, Seattle Seahawks and Houston Texans. In the wake of last week’s 45-7 blowout over Houston, the Jaguars clinched a playoff spot for the first time in a decade.

San Francisco hasn’t been a great bet at Levi’s Stadium, going 2-5 ATS at home compared to 5-2 ATS on the road, but it’s hard to put too much stock into trends that occurred before the Garoppolo trade. The signal-caller has breathed new life into the offense, as running back Carlos Hyde and wideout Marquise Goodwin have seen a major uptick in production over the last month.

When the Jaguars play in the late afternoon, the OVER is paying out with ease. In Jacksonville’s previous nine when playing in the middle slate of games, the OVER is a perfect 9-0.

 

 

Key Trends

The 49ers are 3-15 SU in their last 18 games in the late afternoon.

The Jaguars are 4-16 ATS in their last 20 games against the NFC.

The 49ers are 4-11 ATS in their last 15 games in December.

Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Jacksonville is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games

Jacksonville is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games on the road

Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road

San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

San Francisco is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 7 games

San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home

 

 

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