NFL Report Playoffs Round 3
posted Jan 21 2018, 11:21AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Playoffs Round 3

*2017 NFL Season Record: 8-5-0 +$2,650

*2016 NFL Season/Playoffs Record: 

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob) 

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

via Oddsmaker.com

 

 


 

 

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New England Patriots

3:30

Vegas Lines:

Line: ATL -2.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 40 (-110/-110)

 

 

The New England Patriots are a ridiculous 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games, making them the only team in the last six seasons to cover the spread 10 times in an 11-game span. They’re back in a familiar spot, hosting an AFC championship game, but they’ll square off with an unlikely opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars, who’ll be looking to pull off a second straight upset on the road.

While no one will debate which team has the better offense, a case can definitely be made for either side on defense. The Jags are recognized for having one of the league’s top defenses, but that claim is a little misleading, especially when you look at their numbers on the road. Over their last four road games, they’ve allowed an average of 32 points per game. The Patriots defense, meanwhile, has rebounded in a big way after a pathetic start to the season, allowing just 14 points per game over their last 13 games, and 12.16 points per game during their six-game home winning streak.

Speaking of that six-game home winning streak, they’ve absolutely been laying the smack down on visitors, as they’ve won the six games by an average of 17.3 points, with five of the six wins coming by double digits. New England also has a nice playoff home winning streak going, where they’ve won seven straight (6-1 ATS) by an average of 18.3 points.

Yes, this data clearly points toward a big New England win, but the playoffs have been extremely volatile so far. Not only are underdogs 7-1 ATS so far, they’ve also won four games outright. This would rank as one of the bigger upsets of the last decade in the playoffs, but as recently as three years ago, we saw the Colts upset the Broncos as a +9.5-point underdog.

The total for the game is in the 46.5-point range and the OVER has been the bet to make in Patriots home games, as it’s hit in six of nine games at Gillette Stadium. The Jaguars have been on a decent stretch of OVERs as well, going above the mark in four of their last six games and in three of their last four on the road.

 

Key Trends

Tom Brady at home this season: 21 TDs and two INTs.

The Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference championships games.

The total has gone UNDER in six of the Patriots’ last seven conference championship games.

Jacksonville is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games

Jacksonville is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 games on the road

Jacksonville is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games on the road

New England is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games

New England is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New England's last 13 games

New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home

 

 

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Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles

6:40

Vegas Lines:

Line : MIN -3.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 38.5 (-110)

 

 

Many of you are probably still recovering from the final few minutes of that epic between the Saints and Vikings – especially New Orleans moneyline and Minnesota -5.5 bettors – but Championship Sunday waits for no one and we’ve got a heavyweight matchup in Philadelphia to handicap.

Back in the NFC championship game for the first time since 2009, the only way the Eagles and their fans could be more excited for Sunday is if Carson Wentz was starting the game. While Nick Foles hasn’t been awful since taking over signal-calling duties for Philly, he hasn’t been great either and if he’s a factor this weekend, it probably won’t be for something positive.

Doug Pederson will likely keep the ball out of his quarterback’s hands as much as possible but if the Vikings stack the box and take away the Eagles’ rushing attack, Nickfoleon Dynamite is going to have to be the fuse that ignites the offense. Considering Foles’ 31.4 total QBR this season, that’s a scary prospect for Philly fans.

As for the Vikes, they’re coming into the City of Brotherly Love on a serious emotional high after that miraculous last-second score with a chance to play in the Big Game in their own stadium and bookmakers opened them as 3.5-point road faves – a line that could scare Minnesota football historians out there. The last time the Vikings went into a conference championship as road chalk, they were blanked by the Giants 41-0 in 2001.

That outcome, however, seems incredibly unlikely this time around. Minnesota’s ferocious defense gave up 20 or more points just five times this season and in their last three games, the Eagles have averaged just eight.

If Case Keenum can keep doing what he’s been doing and get his No. 1 scoring defense around 20 points, that should be more than enough to give Minnesota its first Super Bowl berth since 1976 as the Vikings are 12-1 SU this season when they’ve scored 20 or more.

That said, the Eagles’ fourth-ranked scoring defense is nothing to sneeze at and getting to that 20-point threshold could be easier said than done. The total for this one opened as low as it did for a reason. If you don’t like defense, this is not the game for you.

 

Key Trends

The Vikings are 10-1 SU in their last 11 as favorites with an average margin of victory of 11.58 points.

The total has gone UNDER in the Eagles’ last 8 home playoff games.

The Vikings are 2-11 SU and 3-10 ATS in their last 13 road playoff games.

Minnesota is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games

Minnesota is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games

Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road

Philadelphia is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 games

Philadelphia is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

Philadelphia is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 8 games

 

 

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Risky Picks
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