Preview of the 143rd Preakness Stakes.

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Justify set to cruise in Baltimore

 Justify won the Kentucky Derby and in doing so broke the 'Apollo Curse'. Until Justify only Apollo in 1882 won the Derby without starting as a 2 year old. Like I had said in my Kentucky Derby preview it would take a true freak to break the curse. Well we found a true freak and the sports next superstar. After the race Bob Baffert commented "He just put himself up there with the greats. It really was that kind of show. It was just an awesome performance".  What made his race so great? Well, everybody who watches racing seriously was thinking the same thing when they posted the opening quarter mile and half mile of 22.24 and 45.77. The horses near the front were setting it up for the closers. Well the closers came and they just couldn't catch Justify. The other 3 horses within 2 legnths of the pace finished 15th, 14th and 12th. Bob Baffert has brought 4 other derby winners to Baltimore and each time they won the Preakness. I fully expect Justify to cruise in the Preakness and set up an interesting Belmont where he will have a legit shot at a Triple Crown. Worth noting Triple Crowns have seem to come in bunches there were 3 in the 30's, 4 in the 40's, 3 in the 70's, and 2015. You have to consider the greatness it takes that in just 76 days Justify went from his first start to Kentucky Derby champion, running over a 100 beyer speed figure in all 4 of his starts. What he has accomplished at this point is unprecedented in any era. He is a rare talent that has enough push button tactical speed to navigate a good trip and stay out of trouble. Very few of the connections of the horses he faced in the Derby even wanted to take another shot at him in Baltimore, they saw what everybody saw... an absolute machine set to dominate the Preakness. Dale Romans the trainer of the pace setter Promises Fulfilled may of said it best after the derby - "It was an unbelievable performance by the winner, on this track, going that fast. He never stopped, he may be a super horse"

Why the rest of the field can't beat Justify...

 Quip finished 2nd in the Arkansas Derby to Magnum Moon... Magnum Moon finished 19th in the Kentucky Derby. Solomini finished 3rd in the Arkansas Derby and 10th in Kentucky, and Combatant finished 4th in Arkansas and 18th in Kentucky. See the trend here? He is a fresh horse and is capable of running a decent race but beat Justify... c'mon...

 Lone Sailor is a cut below the top tier horses and although he had some trip trouble the Kentucky Derby couldn't of set up better for his running style. 

 Sporting Chance was refusing the break from the gate in his training and is a quirky horse but if the track turns up wet his pedigee suggest he will like a wet track.

 Diamond King is the horse who gained entry via the local Preakness win and your in prep the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel Park vs sub par competition. 

 Good Magic had a perfect trip in the Kentucky Derby and even ran better than I expected but with his perfect trip he couldn't catch Justify in Kentucky and there is no reason to believe he will in Baltimore. 

 Tenfold actually finished 5th in the Arkansas Derby and he might improve in this one as he is another horse light on experience and unraced at 2. But, he's going to need a rocket up his ass to catch Justify. Sired by Curlin I do think he has value as a play underneath. 

 Bravazo did have a pretty wide trip in the Derby and could improve and hit the board but there is no way he is catching Justify. 

Betting the Preakness

I must state this is an absolute miserable betting race. Justify is going to be such a heavy favorite it likely won't be worth betting on him to win if you watch the odds over the course of the day and you can get 3/5 I guess just unload on him. But I don't even see that and wouldnt be shocked at 1/5. So if you want to bet it your going to have to play the Trifecta and the Superfecta. $1 bets probably arent going to pay well even if you hit the super. Look below at the highlighted years, those are likely to be the types of payouts we are looking at.

So here is the Tri and Super I will be playing.

Trifecta

Bets cost $9 per $1 bet. (9 possible combinations per tri) 

Justify w/ Bravazo, Lone Sailor, Tenfold w/ Bravazo, Lone Sailor, Tenfold, Good Magic

The thinking here is hoping Good Magic runs out of the tri but using him in the 3rd spot defensively. If he finishes 2nd you didn't miss much of a payout. Gotta play for a price here. 

Superfecta 

Bet cost $36 per $1 (36 possible combinations)

Justify w/ Quip, Good Magic, Tenfold w/ Quip, Good Magic, Tenfold, Lone Sailor w/ Quip, Good Magic, Tenfold, Lone Sailor, Bravazo, Sporting Chance

The Preakness is more about handicappping the math than the horses when you have a year like this. Its the superfecta so you can put Good Magic back in the 2nd spot and hope Tenfold runs into one of the back 2 spots if Good Magic finishes 2nd. I think Tenfold has the best chance to outrun his odds of the long shot horses who did not race in the derby. Lone Sailor could make a run to with a cleaner trip to come flying late and get up to hit the board. 

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