NFL 2021 Week 12 - Thanksgiving Day Writeup
posted Nov 25 2021, 09:08AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 12


Thanksgving Day Edition

November 25, 2021


*2021 NFL Season Record:

*2021 NFL Season/Playoffs Record:

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)






Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions

12:30 PM

CHI -2.5 (-116)

O/U 41.5 (-106)



Chicago is 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games.

The UNDER is 7-1 in Detroit’s last 8 games.

Chicago is 6-1 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.


Bears News & Notes

Justin Fields’ availability against Detroit was uncertain at the time of writing after the rookie quarterback left Sunday’s 16-13 loss to Baltimore with a rib injury. X-rays were negative, but Chicago will likely decide to play it safe and sit Fields out on a short week. Andy Dalton relieved Fields against the Ravens and threw a pair of long touchdown passes, including a 49-yarder to give Chicago a lead with 1:44 left on the clock.

The Bears couldn’t hold the lead, however, allowing backup quarterback Tyler Huntley and the Ravens to drive 79 yards on five plays and score the winning touchdown with 22 seconds left.

“It’s a punch to the gut,” defensive end Robert Quinn told the Associated Press.

It was the second straight punch to the gut for a Chicago team that also held a late lead in its previous game against Pittsburgh before losing in the dying seconds. Already without star linebacker Khalil Mack for the rest of the year and with several other key defensive starters nursing injuries, the Bears might have a tough time bouncing back emotionally in this quick turnaround spot.


Chicago are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 9 games.

Chicago are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games.

Chicago are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games against Detroit.



Lions News & Notes

The Lions once again came agonizingly close to their first victory of the season last week in Cleveland, falling 13-10 to the Browns. It was the fourth time this season that Detroit has failed to win a game that was decided by three points or less, including a tie at Pittsburgh the previous week. Dating back to last year, the Lions are 0-13-1 SU, the longest winless streak in the NFL.

In order to finally get over the hump, the Lions need more production from their passing game. Tim Boyle threw for just 77 yards in his first career start against the Browns, and he may have to suit up again if No. 1 pivot Jared Goff isn’t able to return from an oblique injury that sidelined him against Cleveland. Goff wasn’t exactly lighting up the skies before being injured, throwing for 144 yards in his previous outing against the Steelers.

At least the Lions’ passing issues have been a boon for anyone who owns D’Andre Swift in fantasy. Swift ran for 136 yards against Cleveland, including a 57-yard touchdown run, and has gained 266 yards on the ground in his last two outings.


Detroit are 4-2 ATS in their last 6 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Detroit's last 8 games.

Detroit are 0-13-1 SU in their last 14 games.

Detroit are 0-8 SU in their last 8 games at home.




Las Vegas Raiders @ Dallas Cowboys


4:30 PM

DAL -7.5 (-113)

O/U 51.5 (-104)



Las Vegas is 0-3 SU and ATS in its last 3 games.

Dallas is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 home games.

The UNDER is 4-0 in Dallas’ last 4 games.


Raiders News & Notes

After a surprising 3-0 SU start to the season, the Raiders have seen the wheels fall off with five losses in their last seven games and an ugly 2-6 ATS record in their last eight. Vegas has scored 16 points or less in each of those defeats, four of which came by double digits.

On Sunday against the Bengals, the Raiders had a golden opportunity to start the game on the right foot after recovering a fumble at the Cincinnati nine-yard line, but ended up settling for a field goal. Vegas ranks 28th in the NFL in red-zone touchdown percentage, reaching the end zone on just 19 of 37 trips inside the opposition’s 20-yard line.

Tight end Darren Waller has become the Raiders’ only consistent pass target since the team waived Henry Ruggs III a month ago. Waller accounted for more than half of Derek Carr’s passing yards against Cincinnati, when no other Raider had more than 30 yards receiving. At one point in the contest, Vegas went nearly three full quarters without a receiver recording a catch.


Las Vegas are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games.

The total has gone OVER in 10 of Las Vegas' last 15 games.

Las Vegas are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games.

Las Vegas are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on the road.



Cowboys News & Notes

The Cowboys have had some offensive issues of their own lately, but at least Dallas has excuses. Already without Amari Cooper and star tackle Tyron Smith, the Cowboys lost leading receiver CeeDee Lamb to a concussion in the first half of a 19-9 loss at Kansas City. Ezekiel Elliott also appears hampered by a lingering knee injury, averaging less than 50 rushing yards over his last five games.

Dallas, which was held scoreless for the first 56 minutes of a loss to Denver earlier this month, managed only three field goals in the loss to the Chiefs. Dak Prescott committed three turnovers and the Cowboys were held to 276 total yards, 160 below their season average. Dallas has now gone UNDER the total in four straight.

Cooper will miss his second straight game (COVID-19) and Lamb seems unlikely to suit up, meaning that Michael Gallup, Cedrick Wilson and Noah Brown will be Prescott’s top receivers against the Raiders. Tight end Dalton Schultz was Prescott’s favorite target against the Chiefs, catching six balls for 53 yards.


Dallas are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas' last 5 games.

Dallas are 7-2 SU in their last 9 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas' last 6 games against Las Vegas.





Buffalo Bills @ New Orleans Saints


8:20 PM

BUF -6.5 (-111)

O/U 45.5 (-103)



Pittsburgh is 12-5 ATS in its last 17 games vs LA.

Los Angeles is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games.

The UNDER is 6-2 in Pittsburgh’s last 8 road games.


Bills News & Notes

Following Sunday’s 41-15 blowout loss at home to Indianapolis, the Bills are facing questions about whether they’re legitimate AFC title contenders after all. Buffalo is 5-1 SU and 4-1-1 ATS this season against teams below .500, compared to 1-3 SU and ATS against opponents that currently have winning records.

Indy dominated the Bills on the ground, running for five touchdowns and finishing the contest with 264 rushing yards. Buffalo also contributed to its own demise, turning the ball over four times and failing to generate a takeaway.

“What we put on that field today is not who we are,” quarterback Josh Allen told the Associated Press.

Fortunately for the Bills, they’ve excelled at bouncing back from ugly performances under coach Sean McDermott. Buffalo is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four games following a SU loss and 9-1-1 ATS in its last 11 following a SU loss of 14 points or more. The Bills have also covered seven straight against the NFC and are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six prime-time contests.


Buffalo are 13-6-1 ATS in their last 20 games.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games.

Buffalo are 14-5 SU in their last 19 games.

Buffalo are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games against New Orleans.



Saints News & Notes

The Saints have fought the good fight since losing starting quarterback Jameis Winston to injury, but having little margin for error might be taking its toll. After consecutive two-point losses to Atlanta and Tennessee, New Orleans was blown off the field last week in Philadelphia, trailing 27-7 at halftime and 33-7 through three quarters before a late rally made the final score a more respectable 40-29.

The early deficit forced the Saints to go to the air more than they’d like with second-string quarterback Trevor Siemian, who was under pressure throughout the day and threw his first two interceptions of the season. Siemian was also without his top weapon out of the backfield, Alvin Kamara, who missed his second straight game with a knee injury.

Kamara might be out again after the team announced Monday that he wouldn’t have practiced if it were a regular week. If Kamara can’t suit up, expect another heavy workload for Mark Ingram, who had 88 yards on 16 carries against Philadelphia.


The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans' last 7 games.

New Orleans are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games at home.

The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans' last 5 games this season.

New Orleans are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games against an opponent in the American Football Conference conference.











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