NFL 2022 Week 16 Writeup
posted Dec 24 2022, 12:45PM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 16


December 24, 2022


*2021 NFL Season Record:

*2021 NFL Season/Playoffs Record:

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New York Giants @ Minnesota Giants

1:00 PM

MIN -5 (-110)

O/U 48 (-110)



New York is 8-3 ATS over its last 11 games.

Minnesota is 8-1 SU in its last 9 home games.

The OVER is 5-1 in Minnesota’s last 6 games.


Giants News & Notes

The Giants picked up a 20-12 win over the Washington Commanders on Sunday night to snap out of an 0-3-1 SU and 2-2 ATS slump. Saquon Barkley had 18 carries for 87 rushing yards and five catches for 33 receiving yards in the win. Barkley also scored the Giants’ only touchdown on offense, with New York’s other major coming on a sack and fumble recovery by Kayvon Thibodeaux.

Even after going four straight games without a win prior to Sunday, the Giants are still currently in a playoff spot in the sixth seed in the NFC at 8-5-1. New York is 2-4-1 SU and 4-3 ATS over its last seven games since opening the season on a 6-1 SU and ATS run.

The Giants have averaged only 19.8 points per game over their last seven games and are not built to shoot it out with a team like the Vikings. It will be up to New York’s defense to follow up its strong performance against Washington with another big game on Saturday to win as a Giants vs Vikings prediction.


NY Giants are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.

NY Giants are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games against Minnesota.

NY Giants are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games against Minnesota.

NY Giants are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on the road.




Vikings News & Notes

The Vikings got off to a miserable start at home against the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday, falling behind 17-0 in the first quarter and trailing 33-0 by the end of the first half. But with Kirk Cousins going 34-for-54 for 460 passing yards and four touchdown passes and Dalvin Cook recording 95 rushing yards and 95 receiving yards, Minnesota pulled off an incredible comeback to tie the game at 33-33 and eventually win it 36-33 in overtime.

While the amazing comeback made for an entertaining game, it didn’t help Vikings backers who had bet on the team as a 3.5-point favorite. Minnesota is now 3-2 SU and 2-3 ATS over its last five games since going 4-0 SU and ATS over its previous four. The Vikings are 7-1 SU and 4-4 ATS at home this season.

Minnesota has allowed 30 or more points in four of its last six games and has won two of those games. The Vikings are clearly comfortable trusting their offense to do the heavy lifting week in and week out, and that won’t change as a Giants vs Vikings pick at home this weekend.


The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games.

Minnesota are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games against NY Giants.

Minnesota are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games at home.








Washington Commanders @ San Francisco 49ers

4:05 PM

SF -6.5 (-110)

O/U 37.5 (-111)



Washington is 1-15 SU in its last 16 as a dog vs San Francisco. 

San Francisco is 10-1 SU in its last 11 home games.  

Washington is 3-0-2 ATS in its last 5 at San Francisco.



Commanders News & Notes

The Commanders didn’t do themselves any favors last week, losing 20-10 to the Giants. Turnovers killed them as they fumbled twice, including one that was returned for a touchdown. Their defense has been their biggest strength this season, allowing under 309 total yards per game for the fourth-lowest total in the league. 

Unfortunately, their offense is averaging less than 19 points per game, which ranks in the bottom third of the NFL. For quarterback Taylor Heinicke, though, it’s not about personal stats, but rather winning. Since taking over for Carson Wentz, he is 5-2-1. One bright spot recently has been the play of Brian Robinson Jr. The running back is averaging 97 rushing yards per game over his last three contests.


Washington currently holds the final wild-card spot in the NFC, just ahead of both the Seahawks and Lions, who are 7-7. 

Make Brock Purdy uncomfortable. Mr. Irrelevant is still very new to this league and hasn’t faced much adversity yet. If Washington’s defensive line can put pressure on him and force the rookie to have to get rid of the ball quickly, then maybe that could lead to turnovers.   


Washington are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Washington's last 12 games.

Washington are 6-2-1 SU in their last 9 games.

Washington are 5-13 SU in their last 18 games against San Francisco.



49ers News & Notes

For most teams, losing your starting quarterback and your most explosive player would be crippling. But with Jimmy Garoppolo and Deebo Samuel both hurt, the team hasn’t missed a beat. Enter Brock Purdy and Christian McCaffrey.

Purdy has won both of his starts since taking over under center, while McCaffrey has been everything and more since being acquired by San Francisco back in October. He has seven touchdowns in eight games and has gained at least 138 total yards in each of his last three contests. 

The 49ers defense is as stingy as a miser. They are allowing 286 total yards per game, under 75 rushing yards and just 15 points per contest. San Fran ranks first in all three of those categories. Nick Bosa is the heart and soul of their “D” with a league-leading 15.5 sacks. 

The Niners clinched the NFC West last week thanks to their 21-13 win over Seattle. 

McCaffrey. If they can establish his presence early, the Commanders will be in trouble. That will open up more options, including George Kittle. Another key is their defense. They likely won’t give Robinson much on the ground, meaning Heinicke will have to beat them with his arm. Heading into this game, all signs point to taking the home team when making your Commanders vs 49ers pick.  


San Francisco are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of San Francisco's last 20 games.

San Francisco are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games against Washington.









Green Bay Packers @ Miami Dolphins

1:00 PM

MIA -4 (-105)

O/U 49.5 (-110)




Green Bay is 14-0 SU in its past 14 December games.

Miami is 11-1 SU in its last 12 home games.

Green Bay is 4-1 SU and ATS in the past 5 meetings


Packers News & Notes

The Packers maintained their faint hopes of returning to the NFC playoff picture with Monday night’s win over the Rams. However, they are likely to need plenty of help if they are to extend their campaign deep into January. With Aaron Rodgers now getting past a thumb injury that coincided with the team’s recent 1-6 run, Green Bay has won three of five to pull within one win of joining the three-way race for the NFC’s No. 7 seed.

The team has not only benefited from Rodgers’ improving health, but also the deepening chemistry he is developing with the youthful members of his receiving corps, particularly Christian Watson. The rookie receiver has averaged 6.6 targets over the past five games after being used sparingly early on, and has responded well to the increased workload by making seven scoring catches over that stretch.

The Packers defense is also coming off a sturdy performance against Los Angeles, holding the Rams to just 156 total yards. The Green Bay pass defense particularly impressed on Monday night, limiting Baker Mayfield to just 111 passing yards while recording a season-high five sacks.

As Aaron Rodgers goes, so go the Packers. Accordingly, Sunday provides a great opportunity for Rodgers to make further use of his rapidly maturing receiving corps and exploit a Dolphins pass defense that struggled to contain Justin Herbert and Josh Allen in its past two outings. The importance of Aaron Jones to this attack cannot be understated. The versatile running back has failed to run for a touchdown in four weeks, but he had 90 rushing yards on 17 touches against the Rams and has also made two scoring catches over the past three games.



The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games.

Green Bay are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games.

Green Bay are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against Miami.

Green Bay are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games against Miami.



Dolphins News & Notes

The Dolphins looked poised to hand the Buffalo Bills an upset defeat on home turf last weekend before Mother Nature intervened on the side of the Bills. As the snow fell in the fourth quarter, quarterback Josh Allen guided the Bills on a pair of long scoring drives, capped by a game-winning field goal with no time left on the clock. Now winless in three outings, the Dolphins find themselves clinging to the AFC’s No. 7 seed, just one game up on division rivals New England and New York.

Tua Tagovailoa provided the spark that lifted the Dolphins into the lead shortly after recess, connecting on a pair of third-quarter scoring passes. Overall, Tua has tossed for five scores during the team’s current 0-3 slide. But he has struggled with accuracy, completing just 49.5 percent of pass attempts, and has been sacked 11 times over the past four games after being sacked just eight times over his previous eight outings.

However, Tagovailoa has been much steadier when playing on home turf, where he has led the Dolphins to victory in five straight appearances and has completed over 69 percent of his pass attempts and recorded four TD passes over his past two outings.

While worries about Tua’s dip in accuracy are understandable, his intended targets will no longer be able to blame the weather for their growing number of dropped passes when the team makes its first appearance in sunny Miami since Week 12. However, the Dolphins face a massive task to overcome a stout Packers pass defense that has allowed just one TD pass in two games and has racked up 10 sacks in its last four outings.



The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games.

Miami are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 11 games against Green Bay.

Miami are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games at home.












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