NFL Football - Week 18
January 7-8, 2023
*2021 NFL Season Record:
*2021 NFL Season/Playoffs Record:
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Kansas City Chiefs @ Las Vegas Raiders
SATURDAY | 1:00 PM
KC -9 (-110)
O/U 53 (-110)
Kansas City is 6-0 SU and 0-6 ATS in its last 6 vs AFC West foes.
Las Vegas is 5-2 SU and 6-1 ATS in its last 7 vs AFC West foes.
The OVER is 10-2 in Kansas City’s last 12 road games.
Chiefs News & Notes
Despite throwing an interception in the end zone last week vs Denver, Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes has improved his betting odds to win MVP honors for the second time in his career (2018 was the first). While many could argue that Mahomes has simply taken advantage of the absence of Jalen Hurts for the Philadelphia Eagles over the past two weeks, you cannot fault him for continuing to play at a high level for the Chiefs during that stretch.
He has thrown for 552 yards with five touchdown passes and one interception in those two games, overtaking Hurts in what was essentially a two-player race for MVP going into Week 15. The Eagles are 0-2 without Hurts (shoulder).
Mahomes found All-Pro tight end Travis Kelce for four touchdowns in the last meeting with Las Vegas, a 30-29 thriller that Kansas City rallied to win on Monday Night Football back in Week 5. The Chiefs trailed 17-0 at home in a wild shootout, but Kelce took over in the third quarter to give them a 24-20 lead after his second and third scores. If Mahomes and Kelce can continue to exploit that matchup, they should win and cover.
Kansas City are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games.
Kansas City are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games.
Kansas City are 9-1 SU in their last 10 games against Las Vegas.
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Kansas City's last 12 games on the road.
Raiders News & Notes
He may not be an MVP candidate like Mahomes, but quarterback Jarrett Stidham played like one for the Raiders in a tough 37-34 overtime loss to the San Francisco 49ers last Sunday. The third-year signal-caller threw for 365 yards against the 49ers, also becoming only the second player to throw for three touchdowns vs the league’s top-ranked defense this season (Mahomes was the other).
That said, Stidham dealt with a ton of noise leading up to the game after head coach Josh McDaniels benched nine-year veteran Derek Carr for the last two games, likely signaling his departure. The most impressive part of Stidham’s game was his mobility (seven carries for 34 yards) and ability to distribute the ball almost equally to six different receivers who all ended up with at least three catches.
Make no mistake about it, wide receiver Davante Adams was the top target for Stidham last week – as he was most games with former college teammate Carr under center. Adams hauled in seven receptions for 153 yards, including two touchdowns, even though he was vocal in his support for Carr before the game. However, he had nothing but praise for Stidham afterward, and their relationship will the biggest key now and in the future.
Las Vegas are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas' last 5 games against Kansas City.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Las Vegas' last 6 games at home.
Las Vegas are 1-6 SU in their last 7 games when playing at home against Kansas City.
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Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars
1:00 PM
JAX -6.5 (-110)
O/U 40 (-110)
Tennessee is 11-3 SU in its last 14 vs AFC South foes.
Tennessee is 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS in its last 6 games.
Jacksonville is 4-0 SU and ATS in its last 4 games.
Titans News & Notes
The Titans lead the NFL in two unfortunate statistics going into their regular-season finale, as they have put a league-high 33 players on IR this year, with 22 currently residing on the list. That latter number accounts for almost half their salary cap worth over $100 million and handicapped them more than any other team.
Dobbs is not the future – that was supposed to be 2022 draftee Malik Willis – but he has proven to be more NFL-ready at this point, giving Tennessee a better chance to win right now. The bigger concern is the status of Henry, who would at least give the Titans a legitimate offensive weapon.
If Tennessee is without Henry again, then the team must find a way to get the running game going to help Dobbs out. Rookie Hassan Haskins had 12 carries for 40 yards last week in place of Henry against a tough Dallas defense, and he will be challenged again here. But if Haskins can run effectively, the Titans can hang around and stay competitive.
Tennessee are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Tennessee's last 13 games.
Tennessee are 0-6 SU in their last 6 games.
Tennessee are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against Jacksonville.
Jaguars News & Notes
When the Jaguars drafted quarterback Trevor Lawrence with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, they anticipated being a playoff team sometime in the near future. They may not have thought it would happen this soon, though, which is a testament to how far Lawrence has come in just less than two seasons since leaving the Clemson Tigers.
While Lawrence has not been overly impressive from a statistical perspective in the last two games, throwing for 381 total yards with no touchdowns and one interception, he has managed the game extremely well and given his team a lot of confidence in the offense.
Lawrence’s former Clemson teammate Travis Etienne had 17 carries for 32 yards in the previous meeting but toted the rock nine times for 108 yards last Sunday, scoring on a 62-yard touchdown run that gave Jacksonville a 14-0 lead at Houston. Etienne can play much better in this spot than he did the last time he faced the Titans, and he is the key to winning and covering this game that could give the Jags their first division title since 2017.
Jacksonville are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games.
Jacksonville are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games against Tennessee.
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New England Patriots Vs Buffalo Bills
4:05 PM
BUF -7 (-115)
O/U 43.5 (-106)
New England is 0-3 ATS in its last 3 January games.
Buffalo is 6-0 SU over its last 6 games.
The UNDER is 9-4 in Buffalo’s last 13 games.
Patriots News & Notes
After suffering a pair of tough back-to-back losses to the Las Vegas Raiders and Cincinnati Bengals, the Patriots snapped their losing streak with a 23-21 win at home over the Miami Dolphins. Mac Jones went 20-for-33 with 203 passing yards, two touchdown passes and no interceptions in the win. New England failed to cover the spread as a 3-point favorite due to a late Miami touchdown and is now 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS over its last six games.
With tiebreakers over the Miami Dolphins and Pittsburgh Steelers, the 8-8 SU Patriots control their own destiny in the AFC and can lock up the conference’s final wild-card spot with a win over Buffalo. New England is just 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS as an underdog this season, including a current 0-4 SU and ATS run in its last four games as an underdog.
The Patriots have averaged only 19.7 points per game over their last seven games and are 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS over that stretch. They held opponents to 12.3 points per game in those three wins and will need to have another standout game on defense to have a shot as a Patriots vs Bills prediction on Sunday.
New England are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 9 games.
New England are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games.
New England are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against Buffalo.
Bills News & Notes
The Bills entered their Monday Night Football matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals with a 6-0 SU and 3-3 ATS record over their last six games. Monday night’s contest was suspended in the first quarter when Bills safety Damar Hamlin collapsed on the field after going into cardiac arrest. Hamlin was still in critical condition as of Wednesday morning with sources reporting that his condition was improving.
The scary incident and its aftermath leave the Bills in a strange position in the standings. If Buffalo wins this game against the Patriots and improves to 13-3 SU, the postponed game against Cincinnati would have major seeding implications atop the AFC. The NFL made the right decision to halt the game given the severity of Hamlin’s injury, but it is currently unclear how this situation and the postseason will be handled moving forward.
The Bills have dominated the Patriots in the last three games between these teams and are in much better form going into this matchup. As long as Buffalo plays to its potential at home and isn’t too seriously affected by the Damar Hamlin situation, the team should get the job done as a Patriots vs Bills pick.
Buffalo are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Buffalo's last 13 games.
Buffalo are 6-0 SU in their last 6 games.
Buffalo are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games at home.
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Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers
4:05 PM
GB -4.5 (-111)
O/U 49 (-110)
The OVER is 12-6 in Detroit’s last 18 games.
Detroit is 3-17 SU in its last 20 games at Green Bay.
Green Bay is 18-5 SU in its last 23 vs NFC North teams.
Lions News & Notes
Head coach Dan Campbell and quarterback Jared Goff have willed this Lions team to the doorstep of the postseason. Now, if they can get some help from the Rams on Sunday against the Seahawks, the Lions will face a do-or-die game for the first time in a long time. For this franchise, the return to relevance is a welcomed sight.
Goff was terrific once again last week in guiding the Lions to a 41-10 thrashing of the visiting Bears. The former No. 1 overall pick completed 21 of 29 passes for 255 yards and three touchdown passes, and didn’t throw an interception for the eighth game in a row.
He was aided by a ground game that bludgeoned Chicago for 265 rushing yards. Jamaal Williams led the way with 22 carries for 144 yards and a touchdown while D’Andre Swift had 11 rushes for 78 yards and another score.
Detroit owns the fifth-ranked scoring offense in the NFL, but it is the defense that will need to step up in Week 18. The Lions contained the Packers in their first meeting, which Detroit won 15-9 at Ford Field in November, but they check in as the 32nd-ranked scoring defense in the entire league. If that continues, the offense may have a difficult time keeping up despite its sustained success this season.
Can Jared Goff win a big game? Perhaps, but he will not be alone as the rushing attack of Williams and Swift will need a game similar to the one they produced in Week 17. Detroit’s two-headed monster in the backfield and a solid effort from the defense are the keys to victory for the Lions.
Detroit are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games.
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Detroit's last 18 games.
Detroit are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
Detroit are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games against Green Bay.
Packers News & Notes
Since dropping five of six games in the middle of the season, the Packers have caught fire. They have now won four straight and are coming off a 41-17 beatdown of the Vikings in Week 17 in which the Green Bay defense forced one fumble and picked off Minnesota quarterback Kirk Cousins three times.
Everything was clicking for the Pack in that contest, with special teams, the defense and the running game all excelling and offering a glimpse of Green Bay’s ceiling, making them a dangerous team to face if they get into the postseason.
The Packers have the luxury of controlling their own destiny – win and they are in – while a Seattle win earlier in the day could make this contest meaningless to the Lions.
The Packers defense ranks fourth in the NFL in passing yards allowed, setting up a strength vs strength matchup against the Lions offense, which is third in the league in total yardage, with a sizable chunk of that production coming via the air.
Rodgers will need to go out and win this one for the Packers to win and cover. Despite the lopsided victory in Week 17, he was held in check as the running game, special teams and defense carried the load. If a shootout unfolds playing Detroit’s high-flying offense, he will need to be the quarterback we know him to be.
Green Bay are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Green Bay's last 7 games.
Green Bay are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.
Green Bay are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games at home.
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