IBN Sports Wrap - NFL Week 1 Writeup (Thursday)

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NFL Week 1 Writeup (Thursday)

posted Sep 04 2018, 03:17PM

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posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 1

*2017 NFL Season Record:

*2017 NFL Season/Playoffs Record:

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

via Oddsmaker.com

Atlanta Falcons @ Philadelphia Eagles

8:20

Vegas Lines:

Line: Eagles -2.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 45 (-110/-110)

Foles and the Eagles held the Falcons offense in check in last year’s playoffs when they won 15-10 and Philly was near unbeatable at home in its run to the title, going 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in nine games last season as a favorite at the Linc.

Opponents could find no footing at Lincoln Financial Field last year as the most points the Eagles allowed in any game in Philly last season (including playoffs) was 24 to both the Redskins and Giants. But when you average out their last nine home games as a favorite, it gets ugly for opposing offenses as they only averaged a pitiful 13.7 points per game and it’s no coincidence that Philadelphia was 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in those games. It’s also worth noting that the Super Bowl winner in Week 1 the following season is 15-3 SU in the last 18 years.

This is a tricky game to cap because while the Eagles defense was ferocious last year in the nine games we just mentioned, Foles only started in three of them and only looked good in the NFC championship game vs the Vikings. Of course, everyone and their dog will remember the Super Bowl when he carved up the Patriots but the Falcons had the whole offseason to study their (and his) shortcomings from when they lost in Philly last time, which means Atlanta may have been able to find some holes in Foles.

The total is hovering around 45.5 and trends are pointing to an UNDER for this matchup. The UNDER has hit in the Falcons’ last seven games (including playoffs) with an average combined score of 33.8 points per game. When these teams met in January in the divisional playoffs, the two could only manage 25 points of total offense and as mentioned, the Eagles don’t allow a ton of points at home. Expect this game to be a feeling-out process in the first half with a playoff atmosphere that may stifle wide-open play.

Key Trends

The Eagles are 9-0 SU and 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a home favorite.

The Falcons ranked 8th in points allowed per game last season (19.7).

The UNDER has hit in the Falcons’ last seven games (avg. combined score: 33.8 pts per game).

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