IBN Sports Wrap - NFL Week 6 Writeup

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NFL Week 6 Writeup

posted Oct 14 2018, 11:59AM

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posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 6

*2018 NFL Season Record:

*2018 NFL Season/Playoffs Record:

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

via Oddsmaker.com

Indianapolis Colts @ New York Jets

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: NYJ -2.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 47.5 (-130/-110)

The New York Jets surprised the NFL in Week 5, not just defeating the Denver Broncos but doing so in emphatic fashion. They now focus their attention on hosting the 1-4 Indianapolis Colts in Week 6. The Jets started the week as 2.5-point favorites at home, with the total opening at 45.5.

The Jets have been a feast-or-famine team through five games this year. In their two victories, they scored 82 points. In their three losses … 41 points.

The only fact to take solace in is that two of their losses came against Jacksonville and Cleveland, two of the league’s better defensive units. The Colts, their Week 6 opponent, are not one of the NFL’s fearsome defenses.

Indianapolis is in the bottom third in points allowed, yielding 27.6 points per game. The Colts also permit more than 106 rushing yards per game, which plays right into the hands of a Jets team that just rumbled for 323 yards on the ground last week against Denver.

The Jets, however, aren’t exactly the same defensive unit we’re used to seeing. While they have some talent, they have already permitted 18 passing plays of 20-plus yards, which is among the most in the league, and have yielded the most rushing plays of 20-plus yards in the NFL.

Colts QB Andrew Luck hasn’t exactly been lighting up the field so far this year, but he started to show signs of being the old Luck last week against New England, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see them take a few more shots downfield.

History also plays on the side of scoring: the total has gone OVER in six of the past eight meetings between these two teams. With two young, talented quarterbacks, and some questionable defenses, expect Sunday to change that trend to seven games out of nine, with the game going OVER 45.5 points.

Key Trends

The OVER has hit in five of the Jets’ last seven home games (avg. combined score: 47.71)

The Jets are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games

The Colts are 2-7 SU in their last nine games in the early afternoon

Indianapolis is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games

The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indianapolis's last 13 games

Indianapolis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 7 games on the road

NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

NY Jets is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games

NY Jets is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 games at home

The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games at home

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Dallas Cowboys

4:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: JAX -3 (-120)

Total : O/U 40 (-140/-110)

When you see that these two teams are facing off, an offensive shootout is certainly not the first thing that will come to your mind. The Cowboys are infamous this season for having an offense that consists almost solely of Ezekiel Elliott, while the Jaguars have some offensive question marks of their own. Jacksonville has opened as a 3-point road favorite in Dallas.

The oddsmakers certainly don’t expect this to be a barnburner either, setting the total at the lowest number in the NFL this week: 40.5. This number may initially make you nervous to bet on the UNDER, but I still believe it’s the correct play in this game, and I’ll do my best to show you why.

The Cowboys are lucky that they have Ezekiel Elliott. He is the only thing keeping them from being the absolute worst offense in the league. The star running back from Ohio State is currently responsible for 41 percent of the Cowboys’ offensive yards gained, as well as scoring three of their seven touchdowns to this point.

Overall as an offense, Dallas ranks third-last in points per game (16.6) and fifth-last in yards per game (307.8). The team’s lack of a go-to wide receiver and a porous offensive line leaves a lot to be desired in an offense that was top-five in the league in those same categories just two seasons ago.

The Jaguars haven’t done a whole lot better this year. While they have managed to put up decent offensive yards (404.4 per game), they haven’t been able to translate that into points, only scoring a little over 20 points per game. This is mainly due to the extremely inconsistent play of QB Blake Bortles, who has thrown seven interceptions through the first five games. Jacksonville has the second-worst turnover differential in the league at -7.

It doesn’t help matters that star running back Leonard Fournette has been plagued by injuries for the entire season. He’s only touched the ball 24 times in the two games that he’s appeared in, and he’s expected to sit out for the matchup with Dallas as well.

Key Trends

The total has gone UNDER in eight of the Cowboys’ last nine games (avg. combined score: 32.78)

The Jaguars are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games after an ATS loss

The total has gone UNDER in the Jaguars’ last three games on the road (avg. combined score: 41.0)

Jacksonville is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games

Jacksonville is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games

Jacksonville is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games on the road

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Dallas's last 9 games

Dallas is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Dallas is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games at home

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games at home

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

8:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: NE -3.5 (-115)

Total : O/U 58.5 (-120/-110)

If you’re a fan of high-quality football, Week 6’s Sunday Night Football game between the Chiefs and Patriots will be a game for you. If you’re a fan of non-quality football, I’d advise partaking in an Oakland Raiders game or waiting for the latest incarnation of the XFL to start.

Anyways, Kansas City remains perfect on the season, but something will need to give vs the Patriots, who are 10-0 SU and 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games. This is undoubtedly the game of the year so far. It features the highest total of the season at 59 and the Patriots are a 3.5-point favorite.

Coming off a Thursday Night Football game has been a big money spot for New England backers as the Patriots are on a run that’s seen them go 10-3-1 ATS in the game after playing in a Thursday nighter. It’s not a shock that a team like the Pats has performed extraordinarily well in this spot considering the extra time gives them more time to prepare, rest and heal. The extra rest is coming at a perfect time, especially for their defense, as they face a Chiefs offense that ranks second in the NFL with 35 points per game.

New England also has the luxury of playing in its third straight home game, a spot that’s also benefited Patriots backers in recent years as they’ve gone 11-2 SU in their last 13 games in this situation. This has been a profitable spot across the entire NFL the past few seasons, as teams playing in their third consecutive home game have gone 31-16-2 ATS over the past three seasons.

Key Trends

The favorite is 1-7-1 ATS in the last nine SNF games.

The Patriots are 10-3-1 ATS in their last 14 games after a TNF game.

Kansas City games have finished with an average combined score of 60.8 so far this season.

The Patriots are 23-7-3 ATS in their last 33 home games.

The total has gone OVER in the Chiefs’ last three games vs the Patriots (avg. combined score: 57.0).

The Chiefs are 7-1 SU and ATS in their last eight games as an underdog.

Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

Kansas City is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

New England is 13-5 ATS in its last 18 games

New England is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games