IBN Sports Wrap - NFL Week 9 Writeup

IBN Twitter Feeds

NFL Week 9 Writeup

posted Nov 04 2018, 12:17PM

story by

posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 9

*2018 NFL Season Record:

*2018 NFL Season/Playoffs Record:

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

via Oddsmaker.com

New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns

1:00

Vegas Lines:

Line: NYJ -3 (-110)

Total : O/U 41 (-130)

Even with Allen Robinson and Khalil Mack inactive, the Jets failed to take advantage of a weakened Bears squad and a +8.5-point spread. New York produced a paltry 207 yards of total offense in a 24-10 loss at Chicago to fall to 3-5 overall and against the spread.

With six receptions for 134 yards, Miami’s DeVante Parker posted one of the best stat lines of his professional career, but it wasn’t enough to keep pace with Deshaun Watson and the Texans’ uptempo offense that racked up 188 rush yards, 239 pass yards and five passing touchdowns without a turnover. The Dolphins are now 4-4 overall and against the spread this season.

Miami opened as a 3-point favorite, the Jets moneyline is +115 and the point total is 45.5. The Jets were favored by 3 at home back in the Week 2 matchup but lost outright 20-12.

Jets – The pieces around Sam Darnold are beginning to crumble. Without Bilal Powell, Robby Anderson and Quincy Enunwa, the Jets’ remaining offensive options are among the worst in the league. So, it’s no surprise they produced a Week 8 league-low 3.8 yards per play and converted only three of 14 third downs against the Bears.

Dolphins – From the sounds of it, head coach Adam Gase doesn’t expect Ryan Tannehill to be ready to play Week 9.

When the Dolphins started the season 3-0, they allowed 17.3 points per game. In their past five, in which they are 1-4, Miami’s injury-riddled defense has allowed 33.4 points per game. The Fins are now allowing nearly six more points per game than they’re scoring, 27.4 to 21.8.

Key Trends

The Jets are 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games on the road vs the Dolphins

The Dolphins are 5-2 SU in their last seven games vs their division at home

The Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games after consecutive ATS losses

NY Jets is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games

NY Jets is 3-9 SU in its last 12 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games

NY Jets is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

Miami is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone OVER in 13 of Miami's last 19 games

Miami is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games at home

Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints

4:25

Vegas Lines:

Line: LAR -1.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 57.5 (-120/-110)

In what should be the marquee game of the NFL season thus far, the Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints will go toe to toe in the Bayou in Week 9. The Rams are the only undefeated team left in the NFL while the Saints are riding a six-game win streak. Oddsmakers have tabbed the Saints as 1.5-point favorites with a total of 60.

When diving into the numbers to see which team has the advantage, it’s hard to find one. The Rams own the best rushing attack at 150 yards per game while the Saints have the best rush defense at 74.1 yards per game. The Rams are seventh in sacks this season and Drew Brees is the least-sacked quarterback in the NFL.

But where the Rams may have the edge is in the passing attack as Los Angeles is averaging 291.8 yards through the air (ranked seventh) while New Orleans gives up an average of 300 yards per game (ranked 28th) and has only managed three interceptions (ranked 28th) this season.

This is why the Rams have been so dominant this season. They’ve balanced the run and the pass so well that defenses are consistently on their heels trying to figure out what play Sean McVay will call next. Los Angeles has also been an excellent road team dating back to the start of last season at 11-1 SU away from the Rose Bowl with an average win margin of 14.5 points per game. When you factor in that the Rams took down the Saints 26-20 last season in LA, it’s clear the edge should go to the only undefeated team in the NFL.

Key Trends

The Saints are 10-2 SU in their last 12 games at home

The Rams are 11-1 SU in their last 12 road games (avg. win margin: 14.5 points)

The UNDER has hit in 4 of the Saints’ last 6 games

LA Rams is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games

LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 9 games

LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road

New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games

New Orleans is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games

New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

Green Bay Packers @ New England Patriots

8:20

Vegas Lines:

Line: NE -5.5 (-110)

Total : O/U 56.5 (-120)

In terms of head-to-head quarterback matchups in the NFL, it doesn’t get any better than Aaron Rodgers vs Tom Brady. The two will lead their teams into action for Week 9’s edition of Sunday Night Football with the Packers looking for their first road win of the season, while the Patriots will be looking to remain undefeated at home.

This will be just the second time the two quarterbacks have shared the field as starters. The Packers won the first game on November 30, 2014 by a score of 26-21, covering the spread with the total going UNDER. This time around, the Patriots find themselves as a 5.5-point favorite at most books with a total of 56.5.

After opening at -6, the Patriots dropped to -5.5 at the midweek point. Over their last 21 home games, they’ve only been a favorite smaller than this on two occasions (this year at -3.5 vs Kansas City and last season at -2.5 vs Atlanta). New England is on an incredible roll at home, winning 11 straight games with nine of those wins coming by at least seven points. Over that stretch, the Patriots went 9-2 ATS which adds to a multiple-season trend that’s seen them go 23-8-3 ATS over their last 34 home games.

As for the Packers, this is already the fourth time this season that they’ve been an underdog, which is a clear sign that they’re no longer considered an elite team. They went 0-2-1 SU in those games, but 2-1 ATS. Another concern for Green Bay is a serious drop-off in road games with the team going just 3-9 SU and 5-7 ATS in its last 12. The Pack lost by seven or more in seven of these games, but perhaps coming within two points of the Super Bowl favorite Rams last week is a sign of hope for the second half.

Key Trends

The total has gone OVER in seven of the Packers’ last eight night games

The Patriots are 11-0 SU and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games at home (avg. winning margin: 14.82)

The Packers are 0-5 SU and 1-4 ATS in their last five games on the road (avg. losing margin: 11.0)

Green Bay is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games

Green Bay is 3-6-1 SU in its last 10 games

The total has gone OVER in 10 of Green Bay's last 13 games

Green Bay is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road

New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

New England is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 games at home

New England is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games at home

New England is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Green Bay