NFL 2021 Week 18 Writeup

posted Jan 09 2022, 09:08AM

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posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 18

January 9, 2021

*2021 NFL Season Record:

*2021 NFL Season/Playoffs Record:

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Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)

via Oddsmaker.com

NFL 2021 Week 17 Writeupdddddddd

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

4:25 PM

NE -6 (-106)

O/U 40.5 (-108)

Kansas City is 6-0 ATS in its last 6 games

Cincinnati is 2-12 SU in its last 14 January games

The UNDER is 9-2 in the past 11 meetings

Patriots News & Notes

The Patriots are headed back to the playoffs, clinching at least a wild-card berth with last week’s 50-10 demolition of the Jaguars. New England technically could still win the AFC East if the Bills lose to the Jets as 17-point favorites, but the unlikelihood of that scenario might lead coach Bill Belichick to sit some of his banged-up starters in the final week.

That includes running back Damien Harris, who left last week’s game in the second half with a hamstring injury. Rhamondre Stevenson, who ran for 107 yards and a pair of touchdowns, could be a valuable fantasy option if Harris doesn’t suit up. Wide receiver Kristian Wilkerson is another potential value play after catching a pair of touchdown passes last week in just his third game of the season.

New England is now 8-2 SU and ATS in its last 10, averaging a 17-point margin of victory during that span. A lot of that success has come on the road, where the Pats have won six of their last seven and covered four of five.

New England are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games.

The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 12 games.

New England are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games.

New England are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games against Miami.

Dolphins News & Notes

After following up a dismal 1-7 SU start with a seven-game winning streak, the Dolphins were officially eliminated from postseason contention last week with a 34-3 loss at Tennessee and the Chargers’ win over Denver.

“The hard thing to do is pick yourself up and go on to the next challenge,” head coach Brian Flores acknowledged to the Associated Press.

Miami could still take some solace in spoiling any hopes the Patriots have of winning the AFC East while locking up its second straight winning record in the process. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa should also be motivated to play a strong game after an ugly effort in Tennessee in which he completed less than half of his passes for 205 yards and threw an interception.

Running back Duke Johnson may have been the team’s lone bright spot offensively last week, gaining 49 yards on just seven carries. Johnson is averaging more than four yards per carry in his four outings this season and could see a heavier workload in the season finale as the Dolphins begin evaluating talent for next year.

Miami are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games.

Miami are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games against New England.

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams

4:25 PM

LAR -3.5 (-107)

O/U 44.5 (-103)

San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 vs LA.

LA is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games vs NFC teams.

The UNDER is 12-3 in LA’s last 15 home games.

49ers News & Notes

Trey Lance got the start last Sunday against the Houston Texans and went 16-for-23 with 249 passing yards, two passing touchdowns and one interception in San Francisco’s 23-7 victory. Elijah Mitchell was also sharp in the win with 119 rushing yards on 21 carries and a receiving touchdown. Jimmy Garoppolo was sidelined with a thumb injury and is questionable to return ahead of Sunday’s tilt in Los Angeles.

San Francisco has played its way into playoff contention with a 6-2 SU and ATS record over its last eight games after opening the season 3-5 SU and 2-6 ATS. The 49ers would lock up a wild-card spot with a win on Sunday or a New Orleans Saints loss to the Atlanta Falcons. New Orleans is a 4.5-point favorite in that game.

San Francisco are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Francisco's last 5 games.

San Francisco are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games.

San Francisco are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games against LA Rams.

Rams News & Notes

The Rams trailed the Baltimore Ravens 16-7 heading into the fourth quarter last Sunday before rallying to win the game 20-19. Matthew Stafford connected on a touchdown pass to Odell Beckham Jr. with under a minute left in the game to secure the victory. Stafford finished the game with 26 completions on 35 attempts, 309 passing yards, two touchdown passes and two interceptions.

Los Angeles improved to 5-0 SU over its last five games with the victory but had its ATS win streak snapped at four games after failing to cover the spread as a 7-point road favorite.

Cooper Kupp had six catches for 95 yards and a major against the Ravens. He enters the final game of the season 135 receiving yards away from Calvin Johnson’s NFL record of 1,964 in a season and 11 catches away from Michael Thomas’ benchmark of 149 in a season.

LA Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.

LA Rams are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams' last 5 games against San Francisco.

The total has gone UNDER in 12 of LA Rams' last 15 games at home.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders

4:25 PM

LAC -3 (-104)

O/U 48.5 (-108)

San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 vs LA.

LA is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games vs NFC teams.

The UNDER is 12-3 in LA’s last 15 home games.

Chargers News & Notes

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert took care of business against the Broncos, throwing for 237 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions to help the Bolts end their two-game skid.

They should have already clinched a postseason spot, but a 41-29 loss to the Houston Texans as 13-point road favorites in Week 16 could come back to bite them if they are unable to sweep the Raiders.

Los Angeles got off to a fast start in the last meeting, jumping out to a 21-0 halftime lead and then holding on for the win. Defensively, the Chargers contained Raiders quarterback Derek Carr to a season-low 196 passing yards in that victory, sacking him four times – once by Joey Bosa – and picking him off once too.

The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers' last 5 games.

LA Chargers are 13-7 SU in their last 20 games.

LA Chargers are 8-4 ATS in their last 12 games against Las Vegas.

LA Chargers are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games against Las Vegas.

Raiders News & Notes

Offensively, Las Vegas has been a much different team lately but hopes that will change. The Raiders have managed to win their last three games while playing without tight end Darren Waller, who last saw action on Thanksgiving in a 36-33 overtime win against the Dallas Cowboys.

Waller was suffering from knee and back injuries before landing on the reserve/COVID-19 list last week, so he should be able to return here as long as he is healthy otherwise.

That would be a huge boost for Carr, who has been relying almost exclusively on wide receiver Hunter Renfrow (career-high 99 catches for 1,025 yards and seven touchdowns) in the passing game since Waller went down. Waller and Renfrow combined for 10 catches, 95 receiving yards and the two touchdowns in the first meeting.

Las Vegas are 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Las Vegas' last 5 games.

Las Vegas are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Las Vegas' last 10 games against LA Chargers.

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