NFL 2022 Week 11 Writeup
posted Nov 20 2022, 09:47AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 11


November 20, 2022


*2021 NFL Season Record:

*2021 NFL Season/Playoffs Record:

Handicapping + Fantasy Picks.. Via (@IncarceratedBob)

Co Write-Up via Jordan Barnes (@JumpmanJordan on Twitter)






New York Jets @ New England Patriots

1:00 PM

NE -3.5 (-104)

O/U 38 (-106)



The UNDER is 3-0 in New York’s last 3 vs the AFC.

New York is 4-0 SU in its last 4 vs plus-.500 teams.

New England is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 as a favorite



Jets News & Notes


The last we saw of the Jets, they were knocking off the Buffalo Bills 20-17 at MetLife Stadium in Week 9. Zach Wilson completed 18 of 25 pass attempts for 154 yards and a touchdown and while the BYU product continues to lead the Jets to victories, it is the rush attack that deserves most of the credit.

In the absence of rookie standout Breece Hall, the recently acquired James Robinson rushed the ball 13 times for 48 yards and caught the lone touchdown pass from Wilson. His efforts complemented those of second-year man Michael Carter, who ran the ball 12 times for 76 yards and a score.

The rush attack was ineffective in the Week 8 matchup at MetLife against the Patriots as the team as a whole ran for just 51 yards in the 22-17 loss. Wilson had to throw more than he would have liked, putting up 41 passes and getting picked off three times. For the Jets to continue their success, the recipe is simple: run the ball early and often, allow Wilson to make throws when necessary, and rely on their stout defense that ranks inside the top 10 in the NFL.

Three turnovers in the Week 8 game were the downfall for the Jets as Wilson was unable to find a comfort level in the pocket. Now returning home, the Jets must rely on the run game if they expect to keep this contest close and win. When neutral in the turnover department, the Jets have the capability to compete with any team in the NFL.



NY Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets' last 5 games.

NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.

NY Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against New England.




Patriots News & Notes


Mac Jones has officially returned to the starting role and captured a victory in Week 9 against the Indianapolis Colts. Jones threw the ball 30 times, completing 20 passes for 147 yards and a touchdown and was effective in doing what was asked of him.

The Patriots relied on Rhamondre Stevenson as the running back has stepped up in the absence of Damien Harris. Stevenson rushed the ball for 60 yards and added three catches and a score through the air.

While the offense still looks to click, it is the Patriots defense that is the star of the show. Ranking third in interceptions, third in forced fumbles and third in total turnovers, the Patriots defense has gifted the offense with short fields and additional possessions with regularity.

Repeat what worked in Week 8. Pressure Zach Wilson, take away the rush attack and allow Rhamondre Stevenson to thrive in the backfield. These two teams are oddly similar in how they play, so expect a low-scoring, close contest that may come down to a last-second field goal.



New England are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

New England are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New England's last 13 games against NY Jets.

The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 10 games at home.








Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings

4:25 PM

DAL -2 (-110)

O/U 48.5 (-110)



Dallas is 5-1 SU and ATS in its last 6 as a road favorite.

Dallas is 1-5 SU and ATS in its last 6 November games.

Minnesota is 5-0 SU in its last 5 home games.



Cowboys News & Notes


The Cowboys played the part of favorites for much of last Sunday’s loss to the Packers, with wide receiver CeeDee Lamb totaling a season-high 11 catches for 150 yards and two touchdowns while running back Tony Pollard had 115 yards rushing on 22 carries and added another score.

Pollard filled in nicely again for the injured Ezekiel Elliott (knee), but it was not enough because quarterback Dak Prescott threw two costly interceptions and failed to convert a fourth-down play in OT that gave Green Bay possession on a drive that eventually resulted in the game-winning field goal. Prescott’s up-and-down play was the difference, and he will need to perform much better to pull off a road win at Minnesota.    

Elliott could be back for this one, and his presence might be enough for Dallas to focus more on the running game. While Pollard has done a fine job on his own, pounding the ball with him and Elliott would help the Cowboys take more time off the clock and pressure off Prescott to make plays himself. Defensively, they are a superior team as well, so putting last week’s loss in the rear-view window may be the biggest key to victory.



Dallas are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Dallas' last 20 games.

Dallas are 6-2 SU in their last 8 games.

Dallas are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games against Minnesota.



Vikings News & Notes


When it was announced that Josh Allen (elbow) would play for the Bills last week, the point spread jumped more than a field goal before closing at 6.5. Those who got Buffalo early rejoiced and assumed the Vikings would lose with the NFL MVP candidate under center.

But Minnesota showed a lot of heart and determination during its comeback, and All-Pro wide receiver Justin Jefferson made one of the biggest catches of the season when his team was down 27-23 on a fourth-and-18 play at its own 27-yard line just after the two-minute warning of regulation time.

The Vikings later scored on a short fumble return touchdown after failing on a fourth-and-1 play on the goal line, and that crazy turn of events gave them a 30-27 lead. They eventually won after a field goal and a pick by Allen.

Minnesota definitely has some positive mojo working in its favor with new head coach Kevin O’Connell, who is one of the top contenders to win Coach of the Year honors. O’Connell sits behind favorite Nick Sirianni of the Philadelphia Eagles, who handed the Vikings their lone loss of the year in Week 2. Dallas head coach Mike McCarthy may have been outcoached by his former team last week and could fall victim to that again here.



The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 7 games.

Minnesota are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Minnesota's last 12 games against Dallas.

Minnesota are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home.







Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Charges

8:20 PM

KC -5.5 (-108)

O/U 52.5 (-104)



Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 SNF games.

Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games vs plus-.500 teams.

The UNDER is 3-0 in Los Angeles’ last 3 prime-time games.



Chiefs News & Notes


The No. 1 scoring offense in the NFL takes its talent on the road as MVP hopeful Patrick Mahomes begins to look like his normal self after a slow start to the season. Perhaps the home loss to the Bills was exactly what this team needed as it has been flawless in three games since.

Most recently, the Chiefs defeated the Jacksonville Jaguars 27-17 after jumping out to an early lead and holding on. Mahomes went 26-for-35 and threw four touchdown passes and got some help from the run game, with Isiah Pacheco stepping up in a big way with 16 carries for 82 yards.

The offense is averaging nearly 31 points per contest, though it will be interesting to see if the loss of JuJu Smith- Schuster due to a scary head injury will have any effect on the team. With Mecole Hardman, Travis Kelce, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and now Kadarius Toney in the fold, perhaps not.

Keep it simple and let Mahomes cook as it has worked out the last three weeks. The defense has slowly started to improve in recent weeks and if the offensive line is able to protect Mahomes, the Chiefs should roll to their fourth straight win.



Kansas City are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games.

Kansas City are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games against LA Chargers.

Kansas City are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games against LA Chargers.

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games on the road.




Chargers News & Notes

With the Chargers now two games behind the Chiefs in the divisional race, this game is a must-win for Los Angeles coming off a Sunday night loss to the 49ers. After they scored on the first drive of the game, the Chargers were able to muster only nine additional points and ultimately lost 22-16.

Justin Herbert played banged up but looked sharp at times. He completed 21 of 35 passes for 196 yards and a score but was blanked in the second half, with the absence of the rush attack glaring.

Austin Ekeler ran the ball only six times for 24 yards, though he did have seven catches for 39 yards. The Chargers could be receiving some help through the aerial attack, with hopes that wideout Mike Williams will return for this contest.

The Chargers have been hit by the injury bug, but Austin Ekeler remains healthy and is the key to the Bolts’  fortunes. He must be more involved in the offense as his rush attack opens throwing lanes through play action for Justin Herbert. If Ekeler touches the ball close to 25 times, the Chargers have a chance to not only cover but win outright.



LA Chargers are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.

The total has gone OVER in 10 of LA Chargers' last 15 games.

LA Chargers are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games.

The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Chargers' last 8 games at home.













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