NFL 2022 Week 12 Writeup
posted Nov 27 2022, 09:28AM
story by Risky Picks
posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 12


November 27, 2022


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Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans

1:00 PM

CIN -31 (-110)

O/U 42.5 (-110)



Cincinnati is 9-2 ATS in its past 11 road games

The UNDER is 6-1 in Tennessee’s past 7 games

Tennessee is 1-5 ATS in the last 6 meetings at home



Bengals News & Notes


It has been feast or famine for the Bengals offense in recent weeks. With last week’s victory over the Steelers, the team has now averaged 39.5 points while winning two straight and has cracked 30 points in each of its past three wins. However, the Bengals were limited to just 15 points per game in their two most recent losses and have averaged just 22 points per game when facing opponents who currently sport winning records.

Joe Burrow showed no signs of a letdown last weekend. The Cincy quarterback threw for 255 yards and four touchdowns in the win and has now found the end zone on 13 occasions over the past five games. That is good news ahead of Sunday’s date with a Tennessee pass defense that ranks 30th in yards allowed. 

However, Burrow will once again have to make do without favorite target Ja’Marr Chase, who remains sidelined with a hip injury. That has opened the door for the Cincinnati supporting cast to shine, including Tee Higgins, who compiled a season-high 148 receiving yards in last week’s win, and rusher Samaje Perine, who showed his versatility by making three scoring catches in Pittsburgh.

Joe Burrow and the Bengals will be aiming to take advantage of the Titans’ injury woes, particularly downfield against a Tennessee secondary that has had its depth severely tested by injuries. Accordingly, Burrow will be relying on the supporting cast among his receivers, who have effectively picked up the slack during Ja’Marr Chase’s injury.


Cincinnati are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games

The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games

Cincinnati are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games

Cincinnati are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against Tennessee





Titans News & Notes


The Titans turned in another smothering defensive performance in last week’s win at Lambeau Field, limiting the Packers to just 271 total yards, including just 56 rushing yards. Tennessee was particularly effective after shutting down the Packers in the final frame, holding Aaron Rodgers and company to just 45 yards over four possessions. 

Overall, the Titans have now blanked opponents in the fourth quarter in each of their past two games and have given up just two touchdowns in the fourth over their past five contests.

Tennessee has also benefited from Ryan Tannehill’s steady return to health after being hobbled by an ankle injury. Rusher Derrick Henry played a key role on offense while Tannehill was injured and has run for five scores over his past four games. However, injuries remain a big concern, particularly on defense. Among the defenders whose statuses remain uncertain are linebacker Bud Dupree, safety Amani Hooker and cornerback Kristian Fulton.

With the defensive depth strained by injury, the Titans cannot afford to retreat into a defensive shell against the high-powered Cincinnati attack. That means finding ways to generate scoring early after scoring just 10 first-quarter points over their past five games, and getting the rock regularly to Derrick Henry, who is due for a big hometown performance after running for just one score over his first four home appearances of the season. 


Tennessee are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games

Tennessee are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Tennessee's last 9 games at home








New Orleans Saints @ San Francisco 49ers

4:25 PM

SF -9 (-110)

O/U 43 (-108)



New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games.

San Francisco is 7-1 SU in its last 8 home games.

New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 vs the NFC West.



Saints News & Notes


The Saints seized their opportunity in last weekend’s home date with the rapidly fading Rams, overcoming a halftime deficit for the first time in seven games on their way to an impressive 27-20 victory. Quarterback Andy Dalton led the charge, avoiding the pick for the first time in three games while tossing three touchdown passes to seal the win. 

Last week’s victory marked a welcome offensive resurgence for the Saints, who averaged just 11.5 points per game during a preceding two-game slide and scored 14 or fewer points on four occasions during a 4-7 start to the season. Overall, this team has mustered just 19.3 points per game during its 0-3 road run and has yet to claim a win against the spread on the road this season.

And while Dalton managed to connect on a season-high 84.0 percent of pass attempts in his steadiest outing of the campaign in last weekend’s win over the Rams, duplicating that effort will be a massive challenge against a 49ers defense that has allowed just two total scoring passes and a mere 13.3 points per game during their current 3-0 run. 

While Andy Dalton has been steady if not spectacular since taking over under center, he must find a way to build on last week’s three-TD performance and avoid reverting to the form that produced six picks over his previous four games. The Saints could also benefit from another stout performance from their defensive line, which has recorded 17 sacks over the past four games, while avoiding spotting the Niners an early and quite possibly insurmountable lead.


New Orleans are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.

New Orleans are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games.

New Orleans are 9-4 SU in their last 13 games against San Francisco.

New Orleans are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games on the road.



49ers News & Notes


The 49ers overcame a somewhat slow start on Monday night to rack up a third straight victory in dominating fashion. Jimmy Garoppolo led the assault with a breakthrough performance, throwing for 228 yards and four touchdowns while completing 69.0 percent of his pass attempts. Jimmy G’s performance has silenced – at least temporarily – naysayers who continue to view the pivot as the weak link on a team that should otherwise be considered a Super Bowl contender.

However, Garoppolo has remained steady since taking over the reins from injured starter Trey Lance, throwing for 12 touchdowns over his past six starts while completing 69.5 percent of pass attempts. Tight end George Kittle and receiver Brandon Aiyuk each caught two scoring passes Monday night and have now combined to rack up six scores over the past three games.

Equally important has been the stout performance of the Niners defense, which tallied one pick and forced two turnovers on downs while slamming the door on the Arizona attack after recess in Monday’s win. That marked the third straight game in which the 49ers have held opponents scoreless after the half.

Another big outing for Jimmy Garoppolo is key to the Niners’ bid to seize the top of the division. However, Jimmy G must take advantage of all the weapons he has at his disposal against a Saints defense that has proven capable at harassing opposing pivots. That means a bigger role for rusher Elijah Mitchell, who had just nine carries in Monday’s win over Arizona and has yet to score in two outings since returning from injury. 


San Francisco are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of San Francisco's last 18 games.

San Francisco are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games.

The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Francisco's last 8 games against New Orleans.








Pittsburgh Steelers @ Indianapolis Colts 

8:15 PM

IND -2 (-111)

O/U 39 (-108)



Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in its last 7 prime-time games.

Pittsburgh is 7-0 SU and 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

The OVER is 6-2 in the past 8 meetings.



Steelers News & Notes


While running back Najee Harris has quietly put together his two best games of the season on the ground over the past two weeks for the Steelers, the success of the team ultimately runs through rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett. That might not be exactly what head coach Mike Tomlin expected heading into the season, but he needs Pickett to be successful in order to win.

By all accounts, Pickett’s play last week should have been good enough to earn a victory, as he completed 25 of 42 passes for 265 yards with one touchdown and did not throw an interception for the second straight game. However, the Pittsburgh defense let Tomlin and his players down, giving up over 20 points for the first time this year with reigning NFL Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt on the field.

The total on this game is one of the lowest of the year, and that is significant considering weather will not be a factor playing inside a domed stadium. Pittsburgh needs to make sure points are at a premium and play like the team did in a 20-10 victory against the New Orleans Saints two weeks ago. It would also help immensely if Pickett continues to play under control without turning the ball over, something that could be the difference.


The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games.

Pittsburgh are 2-7 SU in their last 9 games.

Pittsburgh are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against Indianapolis.

Pittsburgh are 7-0 SU in their last 7 games against Indianapolis.




Colts News & Notes

The best move Saturday made upon becoming the head coach of the Colts was re-inserting veteran Matt Ryan as the starting quarterback. While Ryan has been underwhelming for much of the season, he still gives his team a chance to win more than alternatives like Sam Ehlinger, who produced 304 passing yards and one interception in two games while getting sacked 11 times.

This should be another good test for Ryan and his group of receivers, while running back Jonathan Taylor has rushed 44 times for 231 yards and two touchdowns in the last two games as well. The key will be producing multiple touchdowns, something the team was able to do in a 25-20 upset win over the Las Vegas Raiders two weeks ago with three of them before only scoring one last week.

Indianapolis has proven it can win lower-scoring games (i.e. Weeks 3 and 5), but the team would certainly prefer to put more points on the scoreboard like it did in Weeks 6 and 10. The Colts have scored 17 points or less in all six losses this season, so the goal will obviously be to total more than that here, including at least two touchdowns. They are 3-1 SU and ATS when scoring two majors or more, which makes that the biggest key.  

The total has gone UNDER in 14 of Indianapolis' last 16 games.

Indianapolis are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games.

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis' last 8 games against Pittsburgh.

The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis' last 7 games at home.













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