NFL 2022 Week 14 Writeup
posted Dec 11 2022, 11:01AM
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posted in NFL, Betting

NFL Football - Week 14

 

December 11, 2022

 

*2021 NFL Season Record:

*2021 NFL Season/Playoffs Record:

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Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants

1:00 PM

PHI -7 (-119)

O/U 44.5 (-107)

 

 

Philadelphia is 15-1 SU in its last 16 as a favorite.

Philadelphia is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 road games.

New York is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 as a home underdog.

 

 

Eagles News & Notes

 

The Eagles got exactly what they needed in last week’s revenge spot for former Titans wide receiver A.J. Brown, who was dealt to them in the offseason. Brown made eight catches on 10 targets for 119 yards and scored two touchdowns, as Philadelphia led 21-10 at halftime and was never threatened after the intermission.

The Eagles jumped out to a big lead the previous week against Green Bay before outlasting the Packers in a 40-33 win, and edged the Indianapolis Colts 17-16 the Sunday before that, with quarterback Jalen Hurts continuing his strong campaign for NFL MVP honors.

With a rematch against the Dallas Cowboys a little more than two weeks away, the key for Philadelphia will be not getting complacent and overlooking their next couple opponents.

As mentioned earlier, Philadelphia cannot look past New York – or any opponent, for that matter. The Eagles got off to an 8-0 start by blitzing the opposition on both sides of the ball, and that relentless style of play has made them arguably the best team in football. They continue to have the best record anyway, and to cover their third game in a row, they need to claim an early lead and force the Giants to try to match them offensively.

 

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games.

Philadelphia are 11-1 SU in their last 12 games.

Philadelphia are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games against NY Giants.

Philadelphia are 9-2 SU in their last 11 games against NY Giants.

 

 

Giants News & Notes

 

The Giants could not be happy to walk away with a tie last week, especially against a divisional foe they are fighting with for a playoff berth. While New York is currently ahead of Washington in the wild-card standings just behind Dallas, another loss here would drop the team behind the Commanders, who are on a bye this week.

The Giants were once sitting pretty at 7-2, and now they could fall into last place in the NFC East. If there is any consolation, though, New York gets to host a team that lost to Washington in Week 9.

The Giants could employ a game plan similar to the Commanders’ in this spot but need a strong performance from running back Saquon Barkley, who had fewer rushing yards (63) on more carries (18) than quarterback Daniel Jones (12 for 71) last week. Washington had 49 carries for 152 yards at Philly.

On the other side, New York’s best chance is to slow the game down and use the running of Barkley and Jones to control the clock. The Giants have suffered injuries to their receiving corps, so it makes a lot of sense to lean even more on the run game, especially vs a high-scoring opponent like this. If they can do that, they can definitely cover.

 

NY Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 13 of NY Giants' last 20 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants' last 7 games against Philadelphia.

NY Giants are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games at home.

 

 

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New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills

1:00 PM

BUF -9.5 (-107)

O/U 53 (-110)

 

 

New York is 3-9 ATS in its last 12 division games.

The UNDER is 8-2 in Buffalo’s last 10 games.

Buffalo is 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 at home.

 

 

Jets News & Notes

 

Now winners of five straight, the Chiefs go on the road after beating the visiting Los Angeles Rams and backup quarterback Bryce Perkins 26-10.

The Jets offense has been a lot more prolific with Mike White at quarterback instead of Zach Wilson, even if their scoring numbers don’t reflect it. New York is averaging 476 yards of offense in White’s two starts, including a season-high 486 last week in Minnesota when White threw for 369 yards.

Unfortunately for New York, its red-zone issues have continued with White at the helm. The Jets scored just one touchdown in six trips inside Minnesota’s 20-yard line last week — a fourth-down keeper by White that barely got into the end zone — and are now 26th in the NFL in touchdown percentage in the red zone.

That has meant plenty of opportunities for Greg Zuerlein, who might be the most coveted kicker in fantasy football these days. Zuerlein booted five field goals against the Vikings, including a career-high 60-yarder, to help New York go OVER the total for the second time in as many games with White under center.

In order to have a shot at the outright upset, the Jets need to find a way to turn long drives into touchdowns instead of field goals. New York’s defense could still help them keep things close enough for a point spread cover, especially with White’s ability to move the offense through the air if the Jets are trailing in the fourth.

 

NY Jets are 6-3 ATS in their last 9 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets' last 7 games.

NY Jets are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games.

NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games against Buffalo.

 

 

Bills News & Notes

 

Buffalo has been getting a lot more out of its ground game lately, especially from James Cook. The Bills rookie gained 105 yards from scrimmage in last Thursday’s 24-10 victory over New England, helping Buffalo outgain the Pats 132-60 on the ground.

The Bills are now 3-0 SU this season when their offense features more running plays than passes, so don’t be surprised if they use a similar plan this week against a New York defense that is better against the pass than the run. It also helps reduce hits on quarterback Josh Allen, who threw just 33 times for 223 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions against the Pats.

Although the victory over the Patriots was Buffalo’s first SU win in three games this year vs AFC East opponents, the Bills are now 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 against division rivals. They’re also 8-1 SU and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine at home, and they’ve won and covered seven of their last nine games in December.

Buffalo has had three extra days to prepare for the Jets, and the Bills are also seeking revenge for a close loss at New York earlier this season. As long as Allen doesn’t throw multiple interceptions like he did in the first meeting between these teams, Buffalo should even up the season series with a comfortable victory.

 

Buffalo are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 10 games.

Buffalo are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Buffalo's last 7 games against NY Jets.

 

 

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers

4:25 PM

SF -3.5 (-105)

O/U 37.5 (-110)

 

 

 

Tampa Bay is 1-8-1 ATS in its past 10 games.

San Francisco is 9-1 SU in its last 10 home games.

San Francisco is 9-2 SU in 11 home dates vs Tampa Bay.

 

Bucs News & Notes

 

The Buccaneers needed an epic rally in the dying minutes of the fourth quarter to escape with a 17-16 win over the Saints on Monday night. Trailing 14-3 with less than six minutes remaining, Tom Brady led the Bucs on a pair of speedy scoring drives, capped by a TD pass to Rachaad White with just three seconds remaining to seal the win.

Brady flashed vintage form while leading the Bucs on their second game-winning rally in the final frame during the team’s current 3-1 SU run. However, this squad has still averaged a meager 16.3 points per game over their past seven outings. Slow starts remain a concern, with the team scoring three or fewer points in the first quarter five times over the past seven games. 

A feeble ground game has produced just two scoring runs over the past five games, both by Leonard Fournette, and an average of just 74.2 total rushing yards over the past seven games. Those worries have been amplified by an ankle injury that forced Fournette to miss the Bucs’ 23-17 loss in Cleveland two weeks ago and limited him to just 49 yards on 10 carries Monday night.

Faced with the challenge of snapping a three-game slide on the road, during which they have averaged just 12.7 points per game, the Buccaneers must avoid surrendering an early lead. This team’s reliance on late rallies is unlikely to help them against the Niners’ stout defense. Accordingly, Brady must find ways of keeping the San Francisco defense off balance by making better use of the backfield duo of Fournette and White. Steady pressure by the defensive line on Purdy, who is not known for his mobility, could also be crucial on what may possibly be a rainy afternoon in Santa Clara.

 

Tampa Bay are 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games.

Tampa Bay are 6-14 SU in their last 20 games against San Francisco.

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games on the road.

 

 

49ers News & Notes

The 49ers have been forced to scramble to bolster their depth under center after Jimmy Garoppolo saw his season end when he suffered a broken foot in last week’s win over the Dolphins. The loss of Jimmy G has opened the door for rookie Brock Purdy, who turned in a steady performance in relief last weekend, completing 25 of 37 pass attempts for 210 yards and two touchdowns against just one pick.

But while the loss of a second starting quarterback to a season-ending injury would prove devastating to most NFL teams, it is important to note that it is a stout defense surrendering an NFL-low 15.8 points per game that has been crucial to this team’s success.

That said, the Niners would also benefit from increased production from their ground game to support their newly minted starter, who is set to face a Bucs pass defense that has allowed just five scoring tosses over the past four games while recording 13 sacks.

Niners rushers have failed to score while generating just 3.4 yards per carry over the past two games. Christian McCaffrey hasn’t produced a scoring run while rushing for just 42.7 yards per game over his past three outings.

The 49ers demonstrated poise after losing starting pivot Trey Lance to injury back in Week 2 and must now circle the wagons around their youthful passer in his first NFL start. In addition to yet another dominating defensive performance after allowing just 11.4 points per game during their current 5-0 run, the Niners must make more effective use of their backfield against a Bucs squad that has surrendered an average of 146.3 rushing yards during their current three-game road losing streak.

 

San Francisco are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 14 of San Francisco's last 20 games.

San Francisco are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games.

The total has gone UNDER in 14 of San Francisco's last 20 games against Tampa Bay.

 

 

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